With the NHL not yet out of the Olympics break and the NBA downshifting to a pretty small schedule, college basketball will take center stage on the calendar once again on Monday, February 23. With only a few weeks remaining in the regular season, Big Monday is headlined by an ESPN doubleheader — as Louisville takes on North Carolina at 7:00 pm ET before a compelling matchup between the Houston Cougars and Kansas Jayhawks at Phog Allen Fieldhouse at 9:00 pm ET. I have settled on my college basketball best bets for tonight, and it happens to come in the biggest game on the slate.
Let’s break down our college basketball best bet for tonight’s action, and don’t forget our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest college hoops matchups every day throughout the season as we inch ever closer to March Madness.
College basketball best bet: Kansas Jayhawks ML over Houston Cougars (+128)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +120.
I’ve had a pretty good handle on the Big 12 in recent weeks, as I was all over Iowa State in last Monday’s best bets column and Kansas in a similar spot at home against Arizona a few weeks ago. This is a game in which both teams are limping a bit heading into the contest, as Houston was frankly outplayed and dominated physically by Arizona just 48 hours ago.
On the other side, Kansas is coming off one of its worst home defeats in head coach Bill Self’s tenure, with the Jayhawks looking unfocused and uninterested in a double-digit home loss to a very mediocre Cincinnati team. This inherently creates a natural bounce-back spot for Kansas in a venue where its hardly lost over the past couple of decades. With that in mind, while I’m not eager to fade Houston following a couple of difficult losses, the historical data is convincing enough for me to side with the home underdog.
It would be reasonable to expect Self and his staff will have devised a strong game-plan and lit a fire into the team following one of their worst showings of the season. Houston’s offense is stronger than in past years, but this is still a matchup where the Jayhawks excellent defense should be able to hold its own. Not only are the Jayhawks one of the best in the nation at limiting points in transition, but they are also are among the best in the country in field-goal percentage and 3-point defense. As long as Flory Bidunga, Bryson Tiller and the rest of the Jayhawks are able to hold their own on the glass — a key point of emphasis following Saturday’s debacle on that front — it should be pretty difficult for Houston to score consistently on Monday.
On the other side of things, Houston’s defense is a stout, physical unit that makes it hard for opponents at all levels. However, the Jayhawks aren’t a team that attempts a ton of threes, which is what Houston forces opponents to do, but Kansas has shot the ball very well at home during Big 12 play as a unit. Considering that this game also follows a very poor performance from the field for a Kansas team that attempted a ton of difficult midrange jumpers and shot just 22% from beyond the arc, we can expect a bit of positive regression for the Jayhawks in this one.
Lastly, it’s hard to undersell this environment; we just saw the impact of Allen Fieldhouse in Kansas’ win over Arizona a few weeks ago. Jayhawk fans will certainly remember last season’s double-overtime loss to Houston in this building, and I’d anticipate a frenzied crowd for 40 minutes in this one. As long as the Jayhawks are able to stay within range and put some real game pressure on Houston, they are certainly live to spring the upset.
Read our full Houston vs Kansas prediction for tonight’s matchup on ESPN
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