It’s the final Saturday of the college basketball regular season, and we’re in for a treat. Not only are there numerous rivalry games in store, including ranked matchups in #24 Vanderbilt vs #23 Tennessee and #17 North Carolina vs #1 Duke, but plenty of teams are still vying for postseason seeding – whether it be for their conference tournament or the NCAA Tournament. On top of that, conference tournaments continue on Saturday at the mid-major level, headlined by the Missouri Valley semifinals and the Ohio Valley championship.
With a jam-packed Saturday ahead, there is plenty of action to be found. However, I’ve settled on three college basketball best bets that I like more than the rest. Let’s get into the picks, while you can also find our NCAAB predictions for all the hoops action through March Madness.
Stop busting brackets and sign up for the Pickswise March Madness Premium Picks now! Our expert is up +30.7 units over the last 3 NCAA Tournaments and picked Florida at +4000 last year. Get futures picks and daily best bets throughout the entire tournament, all for just $50. Click here to join and get 20% off before Selection Sunday!
College basketball best bet: Virginia Tech Hokies +11.5 over Virginia Cavaliers (-105)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to +9.
When these teams first met on New Year’s Eve, we were treated to an absolute classic. On their home floor, the Hokies beat the Cavaliers 95-85 in triple OT without starting forward and 3rd-leading scorer Tobi Lawal. It wasn’t pretty by any means considering both teams scored under 1 point per possession, but it was close throughout. Virginia’s largest lead was 4 points, while Virginia Tech’s was its final 10-point margin of victory. That game was really a microcosm of this rivalry series of late, as only 4 of the last 10 meetings have been decided by double digits. For those keeping score, 3 of those double-digit wins were by Virginia Tech.
I’m expecting much of the same on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech may not have the wins to show for it, but the Hokies have been excellent against the number on the road this season. In fact, you can’t get any better than their 9-0 ATS mark. Their slower-than-average pace of play paired with 38% perimeter shooting and a top-3 forced turnover rate in conference road games makes them difficult to beat by wide margin. That makes this number even more appealing, as Virginia hasn’t been great in this role recently. The Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS as a favorite of -9.5 or more since the end of January, while sitting just 3-9 ATS overall in their last 12 outings.
College basketball best bet: South Carolina Gamecocks +7 over Ole Miss Rebels (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.
I realize South Carolina has been downright terrible in conference play, but who is Ole Miss to be laying this many points against any power conference opponent? The Rebels have yet to beat an SEC opponent by 8 or more, and they haven’t even beaten a top-225 team (KenPom rankings) by 8+ points this year – which includes games against Memphis, Austin Peay and Southern Miss.
No matter how you cut it, the metrics are ugly on both ends. Ole Miss is 11-19 ATS, including 4-14 ATS at home and 3-9 ATS in the favorite role. South Carolina is slightly better against the number, sitting 13-17 overall, 6-4 on the road and 9-11 as an underdog. Further, the Gamecocks are the worst team in the SEC in a handful of metrics like adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding rate, but let’s not act like the Rebels are much better.
Ole Miss is bottom-3 in the league in all the aforementioned metrics, and unlike South Carolina, the Rebels send their opponents to the free throw line at the highest rate in the league, which is the one place South Carolina has scored efficiently this season – knocking down 78% of their attempts. That should give the Gamecocks a nice scoring edge at the free throw line, especially considering they send SEC opponents to the charity stripe at the 3rd-lowest rate.
Cocky could find a nice edge on the perimeter, too. South Carolina will absolutely settle for perimeter shots, whether or not they are falling, and Ole Miss gives up the 2nd-most threes in the conference (278th nationally). I just don’t understand Ole Miss laying north of 2 possessions, and I’ll pay to be wrong in this case.
Don’t miss our college basketball picks for all the biggest games EVERY day!
College basketball best bet: Florida Gators -6.5 over Kentucky Wildcats (-105)
Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.5.
Some would argue you’re buying high on Florida in this spot, and while I get the rationale, you won’t catch me fading this Gators squad. We’ve been on Florida in 3 straight games and we’ve cashed all 3 tickets, so why would we jump off now? They’re certainly passing the eye test, as the team looks very cohesive with Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland settled into their roles. Even without Thomas Haugh on Tuesday, the Gators demolished Mississippi State 108-74. The Bulldogs led 24-14 with 11:33 remaining in the first half, so the Gators went on 94-50 run in less than 32 minutes to end the game. Ridiculous.
Haugh is expected to be available on Saturday, so I’m uncertain of what Kentucky’s upside is here – despite playing this game within the friendly confines of Rupp Arena. When these teams first met on February 14, Kentucky had a solid showing from the perimeter and managed to sneak inside the number at the end of the game despite trailing by 16 with 8 minutes left, but the Wildcats connected on fewer than 43% of two-point attempts, never held a lead and turned the ball over 14 times. Since that game, the Wildcats are outside the top 35 in adjusted offensive efficiency and outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency, while sitting 148th in effective field goal percentage and 186th on the defensive end. Moreover, they are 302nd in turnover rate, 277th in forced turnover rate, 203rd in offensive rebounding rate allowed, 262nd in opposing free throw rate and 299th in opposing three-point rate over the last 3 weeks. How are we to trust them defensively against a Florida offense that is top 10 in efficiency, top 20 in effective field goal percentage and 2nd in offensive rebounding rate, while shooting 39% from deep in that span?
The Gators have 24 wins and only 3 of them have been by single digits. They have covered their last 4 games and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10. Furthermore, they have covered 7 straight road games, all in the favorite role. Sure, their SEC seeding is locked up for next week’s conference tournament, but I don’t see them letting off the gas here. Rather, I envision the Gators wanting to make a statement at Rupp Arena to further their case for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There’s no reason to step in front of the Gators.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
