With the NHL on an Olympics break and the NBA still not out of its own All-Star break, it’s another day in the sports world in which college basketball will take center stage on the calendar. The college hoops regular season has already treated us to plenty of memorable games this season, and we saw another highly entertaining contest on Monday as Iowa State rallied to knock off Houston in an instant Big 12 classic at Hilton Coliseum. With plenty of games on the docket on Tuesday, I’ve settled on my college basketball best bets for tonight’s slate, as I look to keep my streak of best bet winners alive in this column.
Let’s break down our college basketball best bet for tonight’s action, and don’t forget our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest college hoops matchups every day throughout the season as we inch ever closer to March Madness.
College basketball best bet: UCF Knights ML over TCU Horned Frogs (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to UCF -2.
I’ve had a pretty good handle on the Big 12 in recent weeks, and I’ll be targeting one of the best situational spots on the board to lead off Tuesday’s trio of best bets. UCF is a team that impressed me earlier in Big 12 play, but the Knights have fallen on hard times recently, having dropped 3 straight contests following an upset win over Texas Tech. However, this is a team that has proven to be excellent at home, where they also have a win over Kansas and took Arizona right down to the wire back on January 17. In a desperate spot following a brutal portion of their schedule, I expect the Knights to bounce back in a big way on Tuesday.
UCF will be taking on a TCU team that has won 3 consecutive games by a combined 12 points, including an overtime win over Oklahoma State last Saturday. The Horned Frogs have played their way onto the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, but they have been living and dying with some timely shotmaking in the waning minutes of these recent victories. From a season-long perspective, TCU still has the much weaker offense in this game (99th in adjusted efficiency per KenPom), and the Horned Frogs are also significantly weaker on the glass and when it comes to defending the three-point line. UCF should be able to dictate the tenor of this game, and it wouldn’t shock me if TCU was a bit flat following a couple of very important victories last week.
Grab our Michigan vs Purdue picks for tonight’s HUGE Big Ten showdown on Peacock
College basketball best bet: NC State Wolfpack -6 over North Carolina Tar Heels (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to NC State -6.5
This is another situational spot on Tuesday’s slate that has piqued my interest, as it doesn’t get much uglier than backing NC State as a favorite following its inexplicable collapse in the final minute on Saturday against Miami. The Wolfpack have suddenly dropped back-to-back games and are sliding in most bracketology projections, but Will Wade’s team should put forth its best effort against a hated rival at home, especially one as depleted as North Carolina.
The Tar Heels will be without superstar freshman Caleb Wilson in this one, and starting center Henri Veesaar has also been battling the flu over the last few days. Wilson is the engine that makes all things go within this offense, and if he was available, this line would likely be hovering around one possession. Furthermore, Veesaar is arguably the Heels’ 2nd-best player, and North Carolina’s offense takes a major hit if he isn’t playing at full strength. If the Wolfpack had finished off the win against Miami, this number would probably be a touch higher, so it doesn’t feel like you’re paying a premium to go against a wounded Tar Heels team that is a bit inflated in the market following a blowout win over Pittsburgh over the weekend.
Get our expert’s full UNC vs NC State predictions
College basketball best bet: San Diego State Aztecs -7.5 over Grand Canyon Antelopes (-118)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to San Diego State -8.5
To close out my column for Tuesday’s slate, let’s head to the Mountain West for another situational angle that I’ve had circled for a while now. The first meeting between these teams produced plenty of drama, and it was Grand Canyon that escaped with a 1-point victory at home in one of the best Mountain West games of the season. However, that game was a bit of a statistical outlier for both teams, as the Antelopes made 10 threes and shot nearly 50% from deep, while San Diego State shot just 16.7% from beyond the arc and finished with 10 fewer free-throw attempts. The Aztecs still shot 50% from two-point range in the contest and generated plenty of good looks. Conversely, the Antelopes’ outside shooting should regress a bit against an excellent defense away from home.
Since that loss, San Diego State has been playing its best basketball of the season, as the Aztecs are 5-1 over the last few weeks and have some of the best defensive efficiency metrics in the nation over that span. The same can’t be said for Grand Canyon, with the Antelopes sitting at 62nd in Bart Torvik since January 24 with losses to Nevada and UNLV on the road. They’ll be walking into an even tougher environment on Tuesday and considering that San Diego State surely remembers how the previous meeting went, this could be a game that gets away from the visitors. Let’s lay the points with the Aztecs.
Check out our Georgia vs Kentucky prediction for tonight’s matchup on ESPN
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