It’s a special Tuesday on the college basketball calendar, as it’s the final Tuesday of the regular season while also marking the beginning of the Sun Belt and Patriot League tournaments. There aren’t any ranked matchups in store, but 12 of the 25 ranked teams are in action, including the Miami (OH) RedHawks – who are 2 games away from an undefeated regular season.
With a jam-packed Tuesday hoops slate ahead, let’s get right into my best college basketball bets of the day, while you can also find our NCAAB predictions for more tips and picks on all the biggest games from Tuesday through March Madness.
CBB best bet: Xavier Musketeers +1.5 over Seton Hall Pirates (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -1.
This is just an awful spot for Seton Hall, who comes into this game off a heart-breaking 71-67 loss at UConn in which they had an outlier of a shooting performance – connecting on 50% of their 18 three-point attempts – and led by as many as 8 with just under 9 minutes to play. Not only are they off a tough loss, but they have a massive tilt with St. John’s at home on Friday to close out the season. So, it’s a letdown spot and a sandwich spot for Seton Hall, playing against a team they already beat by 18 at home at the end of January.
In that game, Xavier shot poorly and couldn’t take care of the ball, which are typically strengths of this team, as the Musketeers are 23rd nationally in turnover rate (13.9%) and 42nd in three-point percentage (36.5%). In their last 5 games, they’ve been even better – boasting an 11.3% turnover rate and a 38.9% mark from distance. Furthermore, Xavier has been excellent from the free throw line in conference play, knocking down over 76% of those attempts. That is a huge edge against the Pirates, who, while extremely efficient defensively, rank 328th in free throw rate allowed and have connected on fewer than 69% of their foul shots against conference opponents.
Seton Hall has no consistent offense to speak of, sitting at the bottom of the Big East in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage and unforced turnovers. On the road, they’re 301st in adjusted offensive efficiency (BartTorvik). A good defense will only get you so far, as shown by 5 losses in their last 6 road games, but let’s not pretend like this defense doesn’t have holes. The Pirates are 285th nationally and dead last in the Big East in three-point rate allowed, which Xavier’s Jovan Milicevic, All Wright and Tre Carroll can exploit.
CBB best bet: Florida Gators -22.5 over Mississippi State Bulldogs (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -24.
This is a massive number to lay at any point in the season, much less the last week, but it’s hard to argue how dominant the Gators have been recently. Since losing to Missouri on January 3rd, Florida is 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS, and the Gators seem to be picking up even more steam after demolishing Arkansas 111-77 over the weekend. In their last 10 games, they are in the 97th percentile in offensive rating and in the 96th percentile in defensive rating, while Mississippi State sits in the 32nd and 9th percentiles in those metrics, respectively, over that span. Moreover, the Bulldogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14, and they weren’t even remotely competitive in their last 2, losing to Alabama 100-75 and Missouri 88-64. They haven’t performed well against top competition all year, as they are 0-7 SU against top-25 teams per KenPom’s current rankings with an average margin of defeat just north of 20 points in those contests. Unfortunately for them, Florida is the best-rated team on their schedule.
You could argue this is somewhat of a sandwich spot for Florida with this game in between a win against Arkansas and a road trip to Rupp Arena to end the season, but this Gators squad has championship pedigree, so I’m going to ignore that situational argument in this particular matchup. Mississippi State’s only real threats offensively are Josh Hubbard and Jayden Epps in the back court, but Florida has a couple of excellent defensive guards in Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland. Obviously, the Gators also have the 3 towers in the front court, who negate action at the rim as well as any front-court trio in the country. On the other end of the floor, the Bulldogs have no answer for Florida’s ball screens and post-ups outside of Quincy Ballard, who can only do so much on his own. Not to mention, Mississippi State is in the 14th percentile in second-chance points per game and in the 7th percentile in fast break points per game over their last 5 (CBBAnalytics), which is absolutely not ideal against a Florida squad that dominates both areas. Give me the Gators to cruise to a cover for my final best bet on Tuesday’s card.
CBB best bet: Cincinnati Bearcats ML over BYU Cougars (-125)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to -130 or -2.
Life without Richie Saunders continues on Tuesday when the BYU Cougars travel to Cincinnati to play the Bearcats on the heels of a tough 79-71 loss in Morgantown over the weekend. It was another relatively poor offensive showing from the Cougars, who scored just 1.12 points per possession and were devoid of offensive consistency outside of Robert Wright and AJ Dybantsa.
The shorthanded Cougars’ struggles are likely to persist in Cincinnati. This Bearcats defense is top-15 nationally in adjusted efficiency (KenPom), and that efficiency hasn’t dropped off of late. In fact, Cincinnati is top-20 in that regard since the start of February, holding 5 of their 7 opponents under 70 points. In this particular matchup, the Bearcats have a couple of one-on-one defenders that can make Dybantsa uncomfortable, including the 6-foot-11 Baba Miller – who is a top-10 defender in the Big 12 per EvanMiya’s defensive rating. Waiting at the rim will be the 7-foot-2 Moustapha Thiam, who is a top-20 defender in the conference that boasts a top-100 in block rate nationally. It may be difficult for Dybantsa to get clean looks at the rim against this front court. In the back court, Day Day Thomas and Sencire Harris are 2 of the Big 12’s top-25 defenders as well, though Harris hasn’t played a ton lately. In any case, both of them are strong counters to Wright.
Along with a strong rim denial, Cincinnati excels defensively in transition and against drive-and-kicks, both of which are staples of BYU’s offense. Without Saunders to stretch the floor, I struggle to find the confidence to invest in BYU in the 2nd game of their road trip out east, especially considering how bad they have been defensively away from the Marriott Center. On the road, BYU is in the 15th percentile in defensive rating, and the Cougars have surrendered at least 90 points in 5 of their last 7 on the road. Since Saunders went down, the Cougars are outside the top 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency and outside the top 260 in effective field goal percentage allowed (BartTorvik). Cincinnati is no world-beater offensively, but the Bearcats have shown an ability to score on bad defenses.
Check out our BYU vs Cincinnati prediction
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