This Wednesday’s college basketball slate is a beautiful confluence of what amounts to be the penultimate game of the regular season for power conferences and high-majors and the beginning of conference tournament play for mid-majors. Five ranked teams will be in action on Wednesday, each of them battling for postseason seeding, while first round conference tournament games will begin or continue in the Atlantic Sun, Big South, Horizon League, Northeast Conference, Ohio Valley Conference, Summit League and Sun Belt – some as early as noon ET.
Ahead of a meaningful Wednesday in hoops, it’s time to discuss my best college basketball bets of the day, as I strive to keep momentum from last night’s 2-1 result. Let’s get into the picks, while you can find our NCAAB predictions for all the biggest games on Wednesday and through March Madness.
CBB best bet: California Golden Bears -3 over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-110)
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to -4.
Coming off an ugly 72-56 home loss to Pitt, the Golden Bears travel across the country yet again to play the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Atlanta, and it will likely be a prolonged stay for Cal considering they end the season at Wake Forest this weekend ahead of next week’s ACC Tournament in Charlotte – just a short drive from Winston-Salem. These cross-country treks are nothing new for the Bears at this point, as this will be the 4th different time and 7th different game played in the eastern time zone since the turn of the calendar year. They are 4-2 ATS in their previous 6 games out east.
When these teams met out in Berkley on February 4th, Cal took a double-digit lead into halftime, faced some adversity early in the second half, and ultimately pulled out a 5-point win without starting center Lee Dort. In his absence, Georgia Tech shot 57% from two-point range, which I don’t see happening this time around with Dort back in the lineup. The Jackets are 301st nationally (48.4%) and dead last in the ACC (46.9%) in two-point percentage this season, while Dort is the Bears’ best shot-blocker. Dort is also the best on the boards on what is an otherwise bad rebounding team.
Cal shot 52% (12/23) from the perimeter in the first meeting with Georgia Tech, which is going to be tough to replicate. However, the Bears are one of the best road three-point shooting teams in the country, shooting above 39% while connecting on at least 10 threes in 5 straight road games. Cal has 3 reliable, high-volume shooters in Dai Dai Ames, Chris Bell and John Camden, all of whom should get plenty of looks against this Georgia Tech defense that is in just the 4th percentile nationally in three-point rate allowed over their last 5 games.
Looking at the motivational angle, it’s Cal all the way. The Golden Bears still have a shot to lock up a top-8 seed in the ACC Tournament, which comes with a bye. Georgia Tech? Well, the Yellow Jackets are 2-14 in league play and are set to be 1 of the 3 teams left out of the ACC Tournament, so what exactly is the motivation here? Senior Night? There are just too many factors pointing to Cal here. Plus, the Jackets are 0-8 ATS as home dogs this season, while the Bears are 7-2 ATS in all games played away from Berkley.
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CBB best bet: Oakland Golden Grizzlies -2.5 over Northern Kentucky Norse (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to -3.5.
The Horizon League Tournament continues on Wednesday, as Oakland hosts a Northern Kentucky team they have already beaten twice this year – once by 5 on the road and another by 11 at home. The old adage is “it’s tough to beat a team 3 times in one season,” but I’m not really a subscriber to that notion, particularly in this matchup. Oakland has a few advantages that I like against NKU, and 2 of them are on the defensive side of the ball – which is surprising considering Oakland is awful defensively from an efficiency standpoint. However, the Golden Grizzlies allow next to nothing at the rim in conference play, and they are actually in the 96th percentile in transition defense against their Horizon League foes – grading much better than the Norse in both areas. Furthermore, Oakland creates extra scoring opportunities with the highest free throw rate in conference play, while sending opponents to the line at the lowest rate.
NKU is definitely riding some momentum ahead of this game, winning 4 of their last 6 regular season games. However, 3 of those wins were against the 3 least efficient offensive teams in the conference – Oakland is 2nd-best in that regard – and 1 was against Cleveland State, who has an even worse defense than Oakland. It’s worth mentioning, since the Horizon League pivoted to on-campus games in the opening rounds of this tournament in the 2018-2019 season, Greg Kampe’s Grizzlies are a perfect 6-0 SU at home with most of those wins coming by double digits and all of them by at least 4. Look for that trend to continue tonight.
CBB best bet: DePaul Blue Demons +3.5 over Villanova Wildcats (-118)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.
Villanova suffered an ugly 89-57 loss at St. John’s on Saturday and now heads to Chicago to play a DePaul team that is surging right now, earning 4 wins in their last 5 games – 3 of which came on the road. Motivationally speaking, this is going to be a max effort from DePaul. The Blue Demons are jockeying with Creighton and Providence for the 5-seed in the Big East Tournament, which comes with a bye. Meanwhile, what kind of effort will we get from the Wildcats here after that emotional letdown against the Johnnies? Villanova is all but locked into the 3-seed in the Big East Tournament and with a double bye.
When these teams met in Philadelphia at the end of December, it was a close contest throughout the first half. DePaul built a 10-point lead (50-40) with 11 minutes remaining, but Villanova ended the game on a 31-16 run in that final stretch to win 71-66. The Wildcats were just 10-of-35 (28.6%) from two-point range, but pulled away thanks to 10 made threes, 15 offensive boards and an abundance of free throws.
Over their last 5 games, the Wildcats have upped their pace of place to almost 68 possessions per game, but they’ve lost efficiency on both ends of the floor – sitting in the 42nd percentile or worse offensively and defensively in that span. Moreover, they’re right on par with DePaul’s poor shooting, mutually sitting in the 36th percentile (50.2%) in effective field goal percentage. Usually offense is the strength of this Villanova squad, and a strong offensive is needed against what has been a stout DePaul defense that is top-4 in the Big East in efficiency and in the 88th percentile nationally in defensive rating over their last 5 games.
To add insult to injury, Villanova is in the 18th percentile in offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate in their recent 5 games. If the Wildcats aren’t hitting double-digit threes at around a 40% clip, where exactly are their points going to come from? For what it’s worth, they’ve connected on fewer than 34% of perimeter attempts on the road this season.
DePaul should have the defensive edge here, as well as a decent advantage on the glass – where the Blue Demons are in the 82nd percentile or better in rebounding percentage on both ends of the floor over their last 5. With something to play for, I like the Blue Demons to at least keep this game within a possession, though I like a money-line shout as well.
Check out more of our college basketball best bets, as we look to improve on our 57.6% hit rate with a Big 12 matchup tonight
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