Best MLB player prop bets for today 6/11: Zack Wheeler's home cooking
For the last 12 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging. Read below to see what prop(s) I am eyeing up on Saturday’s MLB slate.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) 6+ strikeouts/Phillies ML (-132)
Zack Wheeler (PHI) 7+ strikeouts/Phillies ML (+105)
0.5U on each play, risking 1.16U in total to win 1.02U. 6+/ML best odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, 7+/ML best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Zack Wheeler has been a model of consistency for the Phillies during the last 2 seasons. The former 7th overall pick has 42 starts over the last 2 years spanning a combined 270.2 innings pitched. He has gone at least 6 innings in 33 of those 42 starts, averaging 97.14 pitches per start. Wheeler averaged 1.16 K/IP during this stretch and needs only 12.99 pitches per strikeout recorded. He has thrown 6 or more strikeouts in 34 of those 42 starts, and 7 or more in 27 of 42, including each of his last 7 starts. Now he draws Arizona, which has the 4th-highest K-rate against right-handed pitchers this season at 25%. When on the road that number jumps to 26.3%. Wheeler ranks in the 64th percentile or better in every Baseball Savant percentile category including an 88th percentile chase rate, while Arizona has the 4th-lowest chase contact rate.
The Phillies have been rolling as winners of 8 straight games. Bumgarner takes the mound for Arizona with his bottom 39th percentiles across the board. He has struggled with being hit hard and allowing the deep ball, with 6 combined home runs allowed in his last 4 starts alone. Off 6+ days of rest last year, Zack Wheeler was 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA, .191 OBA, and 26 strikeouts in 19 combined IP. I like Philadelphia to get the win behind a strong performance from their ace and his 1.73 home ERA.
Framber Valdez (HOU) to record a win: Yes (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
If you have followed me this season you know my affinity for Framber Valdez. For those who don’t know, to record a win a pitcher must record 5 or more innings of work, and leave with a lead that is not squandered once he exits. Framber has pitched 5 0r more innings in 30 of his 38 starts over the last 2 seasons, and 6 or more innings in 26 of 38 including each of his last 8 starts.
Valdez has a 66% ground-ball rate this season and has recorded the league’s most ground-ball outs with 103. The league-average ground-ball rate is 45% and Miami has the 6th-highest rate. As a result, he limits fly balls with just a 9.1% rate, 13.7% below the league average. Valdez ranks in the 95th percentile in barrel rate and 82nd in hard-hit rate. His pitches/PA of 3.7 ranks him just 95th highest of 117 qualifying pitchers. He is able to work deep into games and provide quality starts, which has led to a decision in 8 of 11 starts this year with 6 of them being wins.
The Astros ML is -275, but we get a -105 price for Framber to end as the winning pitcher and 10 of the last 11 left-handed starters to face Miami have gone at least 5 innings, qualifying them for a win. Over the course of the season Miami has hit a league-worst .206 versus left-handed pitching with a league-worst .320 SLG, .596 OPS, .267 wOBA and 74 wRC+, while ranking 4th-worst in ISO at .113. They also have the highest K rate against LHP at 29.2% and the 6th-highest ground-ball rate as a team.
Braxton Garrett is a quality left-handed prospect for the Marlins but he is making just his second start of the season and is coming off allowing 4 runs in just 72 pitches. He faces off against an Astros team that has hit lefties very well in the last 30 days, ranking 8th in wRC+ and 10th in ISO during that span. I love this angle for backing Framber and the Astros today.