Javan Shouey
Saturday’s slate of MLB games is heavily affected by weather with potential rain in several games and wind resulting in friendly hitting conditions elsewhere. Make sure to just the weather forecast before placing bets this morning! Today I am targeting the Chicago Cubs lethal lineup against a veteran pitcher due for regression, and the Philadelphia Phillies lineup against Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks. Let’s dive in and discuss why.
Chicago Cubs first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+130)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +110 odds. Risking 1u.
Jose Quintana has had a strong start for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2025, returning early value on his 1-year $4 million contract he signed this offseason. With 1 or 0 earned runs allowed in each of his 4 starts, each resulting in a Milwaukee win, Quintana has been tremendous on the surface. His underlying metrics suggest that he has been a bit fortunate, however, and a tough matchup against the Chicago Cubs today could present trouble for the veteran southpaw. Quintana has a 4.42 xERA and 4.65 SIERA through 23.2 innings pitched, marks that are essentially in-line with last season’s production. His batted ball metrics are poor with a 47.1% hard-hit rate ranking 18th percentile and his .284 xBA sitting 17th percentile. Quintana has always been a pitch-to-contact arm but that has been truer than ever so far this season with his 16.6% whiff rate resulting in a ton of contact. He has also walked 8 batters in his last 3 starts while recording a below-average zone rate.
The Cubs have been baseball’s best lineup against left-handed pitching so far this season ranking 1st in both wOBA and K-BB% while posting a wRC+ of 143. Their lineup is likely to have 7 right-handed batters in it which plays into Quintana’s weaker split both this season and during his career. So far this season Quintana has a 0.81 FIP against left-handed batters in a 21-batter sample. Against righties he has a 4.09 FIP in a 72-batter sample. Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong are two of the more productive lefty bats as well so far this season so there are no easy outs in today’s matchup for Quintana. There are several angles I considered in this game but at +130 odds this was my favorite way of attacking Quintana’s eventual regression.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) under 5.5 strikeouts recorded + Philadelphia Phillies team total over 2.5 (-108)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds. Risking 1u.
Among the several games that could be affected by weather today, the matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies is one of them. Philadelphia could see rain today around game time with storms in the surrounding areas and there is also wind projected to be blowing out towards center field at around 10 MPH in one of the more wind-receptive ballparks in MLB. If we see a delayed start time due to rain the that would push the game back and there are projected humidity levels of around 60% from 8PM through 10PM. That combined with the wind and 80-degree temperatures make for some ideal hitting conditions. If the game starts on time and sees a mid-game delay that would only help our chances of Brandon Pfaadt remaining under 5.5 strikeouts. Either way, weather should help this bet today.
From a matchup perspective this is a tough spot for the Diamondbacks’ right-hander as Philadelphia has been stingy against right-handed pitching, especially in their home park. The Phillies rank 15th with their .317 wOBA against right-handed pitching while their 18.8% strikeout rate ranks 3rd lowest overall. When at home their wOBA jumps to .337 which while their strikeout rate falls to 16.4% against righties in a sample of 451 plate appearances. They have faced 14 right-handed starting pitchers in their home park this season with only one of them surpassing this 5.5 strikeout prop. Pfaadt himself has only reached 6 Ks in 2 of his 6 outings so far this season while recording a career-low called strike plus whiff rate. His 25.5% CSW% ranks 39th lowest among 135 pitchers with at least 20 innings this season, and his 24.2% whiff rate is just a 42nd percentile mark. Pfaadt fills the strike zone often, but the Phillies have the 4th best zone-contact rate this season as a team.
As far as the 3 runs scored, Pfaadt’s 2.78 ERA is shadowed by a 5.04 xERA and his 41.9% hard-hit rate and 9.5% barrel-rate have resulted in a .303 xBA that ranks just 9th percentile. Pfaadt has been fortunate to allow a career-low BABIP and record a career-best strand rate despite these batted ball metrics and I expect him to regress in today’s tough matchup. Even if all 3 runs aren’t scored off of Pfaadt I like the Phillies chances against a heavily worked Diamondbacks bullpen that has MLB’s 9th worst ERA so far this season. Philadelphia has 3 or more runs scored in 15 of 17 home games this season.
