Best MLB player prop picks for today, 4/24: Regression coming for Tyler Anderson

Apr 22, 2023; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson (31) throws to the plate in the third inning against the Kansas City Royals at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
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All 30 MLB teams are in action today, leaving us with an interesting slate of games to break down and enjoy. There is one play standing out to me among them all, and it involves Los Angeles Angels’ starter Tyler Anderson. Let’s dive into my best MLB player prop bet for Wednesday, April 24, while you can also find out our MLB picks for all of today’s big matchups.

Baltimore Orioles team total over 4.5 (-115)

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds. Risking 1u.

Early-season results can be a bit deceiving. Pitchers can outperform or underperform expectations in any small 4 or 5-game sample, so it is always important to zoom out and attempt to see the bigger picture. Today’s bet is an angle on Tyler Anderson regressing back to the arm we have become accustomed to across his MLB career. The 34-year-old journeyman southpaw has pitched for numerous teams over the years. His 2022 campaign with the Dodgers was exceptional, earning him an all-star nod and a hefty contract from the Angels the following offseason. However, 2023 was a rough season for Anderson as he took a step back across the board statistically.

While Anderson has coasted to 7 complete innings in 3 of his 4 starts so far, allowing just a 1.42 ERA, there is plenty of reasoning to believe that regression is headed his way quickly. Anderson’s 1.42 ERA is shadowed by a 4.12 xERA, 4.68 FIP and 5.18 xFIP. Opponents are hitting just .169 against him so far, but that is due to an unsustainably low .167 BABIP, down from .301 last season and .286 for his career. Anderson has also benefitted from a 96% LOB%, stranding the vast majority of runners he allows to reach base. That rate sits 28.8% higher than his mark from last season. The left-hander is generating ground balls in just the 20th percentile, while striking batters out at a 10th-percentile rate. His 10.7% barrel rate also sits in the 20th percentile.

With 3 home runs and 6 walks allowed in his last 2 outings, Anderson’s play has begun to get shakier, and he is now tasked with a lethal Orioles lineup. Baltimore possesses absurd depth in their lineup, often seeing Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg in the 7th and 8th spots in the lineup. They hit either handedness of pitching well, but rank 7th in wOBA with a 129 wRC+ against southpaw pitching so far this year. This includes 5, 7 and 4 earned runs off DL Hall, Cole Ragans and Reid Detmers in their last 3 chances respectively. Once Anderson is out of the game, Baltimore will deal with an Angels bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA and 27th in FIP. With all 9 innings locked in to hit as the road team, I expect 5 or more runs from Baltimore in this matchup.

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