Playoff basketball is in full swing. After an exciting opening weekend of postseason action, some teams have dug their heels in the ground in and nosed out to 1-0 leads. Now, we are heading into the second games of the respective conference quarterfinals where a series can be evened while some teams can jump out to a 2-0 lead to place the series into a headlock. The Denver Nuggets hope to do just that. The marquee bout of the 3 game slate features the Minnesota Timberwolves taking on the Nuggets in the Mile High City at 10:30 PM ET on NBC. Today’s slate also includes the Knicks and Hawks mixing it up in the Garden for Game Two at 8:00 PM ET, preceded by Raptors vs Cavaliers live from Toronto at 7:00 PM ET.
You can find our NBA picks for all of today’s matchups, along with EVERY GAME through the rest of the regular season and postseason. But for now, here are our expert NBA best bets for all of today’s 3 playoff games on Monday, April 20.
Raptors vs Cavaliers NBA best bet: Raptors +8.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Cleveland’s Game 1 win (126–113) looks convincing on paper, but the underlying math raises red flags for bettors laying points. The Cavaliers knocked down 50% from three on 32 attempts—an elite outcome that often masks structural volatility. This is a team heavily dependent on perimeter efficiency; when those shots aren’t falling, their half-court offense can stagnate quickly. Even in a near-optimal shooting performance, Cleveland only cleared by 13, which doesn’t justify this current spread range.
Toronto, meanwhile, has enough defensive versatility and length to contest shooters and force regression toward the mean. If Cleveland dips closer to 38–40% from deep—a still solid mark—in Game 1, the margin tightens dramatically. In fact, that creates a scenario where the Raptors not only cover but threaten an outright upset. In playoff settings, backing a streaky shooting favorite at a big number becomes a risky proposition. Raptors plus the points offers the most value. I am daring the Cavaliers to shoot lights out again because if they don’t, this ticket cashes easy.
Hawks vs Knicks NBA best bet: Hawks +190 (ML)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
The market is leaning heavily into the “New York is a contender” narrative, and that’s inflating this number. The Knicks entered the postseason with Finals-or-bust expectations and validated public sentiment with a Game 1 win at Madison Square Garden over the up-start Hawks. Now, back in the Garden again, bettors are paying a premium for the storyline and location rather than the actual matchup.
The posted total (217.5) signals a slower, possession-based game which create conditions that inherently favor underdogs. Fewer possessions reduce scoring gaps and increase upset probability, especially for a team capable of streaky offensive runs like the Hawks. However, Atlanta’s late-season surge has been quickly dismissed after one postseason loss, but that creates the opportunity on an underpriced and very much potent pooch. At nearly 2-to-1 odds, Atlanta presents strong contrarian value in a game script that supports variance and late-game volatility. The Hawks equalizing the series here is all they need as they can win the rest of their games in the ATL and stage the upset. I am not asking them to do that though, instead just make things a little interesting. The Hawks should not be counted here and in a game that will have low-scoring and be possession-oriented, Atlanta as an outright winner at this price cannot be passed up.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets NBA best bet: Under 231.5 (-110)
Odds available at Novig Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Game 1 finished 116–105, but expecting a similar scoring output ignores the likely strategic adjustment from Minnesota. If the Timberwolves are going to stay competitive in this series, they must dictate tempo and turn this into a physical, half-court battle. Trading offensive firepower with Denver, especially at altitude, is not sustainable. So I would expect the Wolves to double down here on the defense which in turn helps the Under.
Minnesota’s defensive identity becomes critical here. Expect more emphasis on slowing pace, extending possessions, and forcing Denver into tougher late-clock looks. That approach naturally suppresses scoring volume. Denver is capable of explosive scoring, but playoff basketball often trends toward tighter execution and reduced tempo after Game 1 data points. And the Total literally picks up where Game 1’s total left off. With Minnesota incentivized to grind the game down further and Denver comfortable winning methodically, the conditions align for a lower-scoring contest that falls beneath the posted number.
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