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Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals is here. The Miami Heat will look to close out the series on the road and the Celtics have been putrid at home. Boston has dropped 5 of its last 7 inside TD Garden this postseason, including Game 1 and Game 2 of this series. With Gabe Vincent sidelined, it will get much tougher for Miami to close out the series. But Bam Adebayo could be the one to pick up the slack on a depleted offense.
Adebayo headlines my top NBA player prop bet tonight, and also be sure to check out our Celtics vs Heat predictions.
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Bam Adebayo, MIA, Over 29.5 pts + rebs + asts (-120)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Bam Adebayo will be leaned upon heavily in Game 5. The absence of Gabe Vincent alone should be enough for Adebayo to see more usage. But when Adebayo plays well, the Heat are a different animal. Through the first 2 games of the series, the Kentucky product attempted 30 field goals and got to the free-throw line at will. That equated to a pair of Miami wins and Adebayo surpassing this line with ease. Then, Games 3 and Game 4 happened. Adebayo’s usage and shot volume dropped significantly. He attempted only 12 shots combined and had limited assist opportunities.
Let’s turn our attention to Game 5. Adebayo continues to show he’s too athletic for the Celtics’ big men and can get any shot around the rim that he wants — including his mid-range jumper. Grant Williams will see an uptick in minutes, which shrinks the Celtics’ size. It will be the Al Horford show on Adebayo. I’ll take my chances with that matchup.
Adebayo is over this line in only 6 of 17 games this postseason but 6 of 8 against the Celtics throughout the 2022-23 campaign. Expect more volume from the Heat’s second-best player with a ton of attention from the Celtics locked in on Jimmy Butler around the rim.
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Ladder Play: Adebayo, MIA, Over 34.5 PRA +225 (FanDuel)
Sprinkle about .25 units on this alternate line. He skyrocketed for 48 PRA in Game 2. I expect a near 38 to 40 minutes from Adebayo, who is over this line in 8 of 18 games this season when seeing that much action.
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