Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It is Super Bowl eve, and we have one last day of betting to fluff up that bankroll before kickoff. For me, I’ll be glued to the TV watching this 9-game NBA slate that starts at 6pm EST. The 76ers vs Nets start off our day and we could see the first iteration of the new Brooklyn team, but Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson are currently questionable. I will admit Ben Simmons looked engaged offensively against the Bulls the other night, directing traffic and calling for alley-oops.
The highlight of the night will be the new-look Lakers taking on the Golden State Warriors. NBA fans are chomping at the bit to see what the Lakers will look like with all the new pieces in place after GM Rob Pelinka essentially revamped the entire top 6 over the course of the last two weeks, adding Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Mo Bamba. Let’s dive into my favorite player props for the night, but be sure to also check out our NBA picks!
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Gordon Hayward (CHA) over 12.5 points (-110)
Line available on PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Hayward is averaging 17 PPG on back-to-back’s, and he gets a Nuggets team that falls off a cliff on the road. They allow the 2nd worst opponent shooting percentage when traveling. This line is right at his season average of 13.2 PPG, and his metrics across the board are all better with no rest: 56% from the field and 38% from 3-point land are both season highs in this scenario. For a guy like Hayward, I just want to see him getting to the FT line with regularity, which he has of late; notching 4+ FTA in 4 of his L8. 1U
Check out our Nuggets vs Hornets predictions
Franz Wagner (ORL) over 17.5 points (-110)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
This line is below his season average of 19.2 PPG, but that’s because he’s been inconsistent of late. Wagner has dipped below double-digit FGA in 3 of his last 7 games but gets a matchup tonight against the Heat that he’s had success with in the past. In the one game this season vs MIA, he had 19 points, and last season he averaged 18 PPG against the Heat (including a 27-point performance). Miami is allowing the 2nd most PPG to opposing SFs over the L7. Gary Harris is questionable once again, leaving the Magic in need of perimeter scoring if he can’t go again. Miami is on a back-to-back and will be missing Kyle Lowry in the backcourt, leaving Wagner with mismatches against Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, and Max Strus in switch scenarios. 1U
Check out our Heat vs Magic predictions
Dejounte Murray (ATL) over 20.5 points (-120)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Some plays just write themselves. Murray faces his old team for the first time all season. This line is right at his season average of 21 PPG and he’s averaging 22 PPG over the L10. San Antonio is allowing the most PPG to opposing SG’s the entire season (25 PPG) and the revenge factor is valid in this one. Murray is 6 games removed from his season high of 40 points and will be motivated to show out against his old team on the tail end of a back-to-back after a double OT loss to the Pistons.
Check out our Spurs vs Hawks predictions
Darius Garland (CLE) over 7.5 assists (-140)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Anytime I get Garland under 8.5 assists it’s an auto-play for me. Garland had 7 assists last night in only 23 minutes of play due to early foul trouble. He’s hit this line in 60% of games this season and Bulls give up the 7th most assists per possession on the road this year. This is Garland’s first matchup with Chicago this season and luckily, he’s averaging 9.9 assists per game on 0 days rest. 1.5U
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Nikola Vucevic (CHI) under 18.5 points (-120)
Line available on PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Two plays in the same game is rare for me, but the Cavaliers tandem of Allen-Mobley is too good to ignore. They are giving up the 3rd fewest PPG in the paint at home this season and only 42 PPG over the L3. Centers in particular seem to struggle vs the Cavs, as they allow the 3rd fewest PPG to opposing centers all season. Vucevic is playing well of late, but against teams like MEM, SA, and POR, I’m not overly impressed as the of the 4 are terrible in defending around the glass; MEM still misses Steven Adams very much. Vucevic has only hit this in 1/3 vs the Cavs this year and the one he did (20 points) required 43 minutes of play. I can’t see that being duplicated. 0.5U
Andrew Wiggins (GSW) over 4.5 rebounds (-135)
Line available on PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Wiggins is averaging 9 rebound chances per game since the start of the new year and 10.6 per since February 1. The Lakers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, and despite adding Jarred Vanderbilt, losing Thomas Bryant is a detriment to an already weak rebounding frontcourt. The Lakers will likely play a slightly higher pace than normal as they now have an influx of perimeter shooting and will want to test the waters. LeBron should move more to low-post play with new pieces in place and keep Wiggins closer to the rim than I previously would have imagined. 1U
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