Best NBA player prop bets for today, 2/15: Fading Deandre Hunter? Risky, I know.
We are two days from the beginning of All-Star weekend. For most players, this is viewed as a mid-season vacation where they will be off until February 23rd (7+ days rest in some cases). For the stars, All-Star weekend is fun getaway with minimal effort outside of their one event or game, with then 4 days of rest. In either scenario, how productive are you the week before a vacation? Yeah, me too. So, with that in mind, we will be very cautious in which player props we approach tonight.
There are 10 games with a few interesting matchups. Heat vs Nets and Cavs vs 76ers are potential playoff previews in the East. Mavericks and Nuggets could be a Western Conference Final preview, while Kyrie/Luka continue to develop their chemistry in Denver. Let’s look at a few player props, but also check out all of our NBA picks for today.
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Deandre Hunter (ATL) under 15.5 points (-115)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is a controversial play considering how Hunter has played of late, but his last two performances came against SAS and CHO, both bottom 7 in aDRTG. The Knicks defensively aren’t pretty when it comes to advanced metrics, but had made a jump to 18th overall since adding Josh Hart and 11th in PITP in the same span. Hunter performed well in his last two outing against the Knicks, but I’m reluctant to believe this is a trend as both performances were Jekyl & Hyde in nature.
In November, Hunter put up an absurd 21 FGA (most all season) with Evan Fournier in the lineup, and their last meeting in January, Hunter shot 63% from the field. Tonight, the Hawks take on a Knicks team that is 2-0 since adding Hart and 6-4 over the L10. It’s a zag play for sure, but I’m confident this version of the Knicks defense is not like the previous two instances and certainly better than the Hornets and Spurs he’s seen of late. Saddiq Bey should eat into his FGA as he becomes more entrenched into the rotation. This could be a sweat. 1U
Luka Doncic (DAL) over 8.5 rebounds (-120)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is a repeat of Monday night’s play, so not much different from the original analysis. He’s hit this in both games with Kyrie and is playing slightly off the ball more. In smaller lineups with Bullock and Josh Green, Luka is playing more in the frontcourt and closer to the rim. There is no stat that supports this more than his 14.5 rebound chances per game over the L2. The volume is there, and the line has not adjusted, so neither has my approach. 1U
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Jonas Valanciunas (NOL) over 23.5 P+R (-115)
Line available on Caesar’s Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Valanciunas is averaging 13.6 rebound chances per game over the L10 and gets a Laker team that is one of the worst rebounding groups in the league. Yes, it has improved with AD back in the lineup, but I’m not 100% certain Davis plays tonight or plays an extensive number of minutes with All Star weekend approaching. This is simply a hunch on my part, but AD is perpetually on the injury report, so anything is possible. Against the Lakers on February 4, JV put up 32 points and rebounds and has hit this line in 3 of his last 5, with struggles against the Cavs (shocker) and OKC (foul trouble). I see a 14-10 game at minimum ahead of Valanciunas tonight as the Lakers shift their focus to post all star break where they will make their run. 1U
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