Best NBA player prop bets for today, 2/27: Butler sees familiar faces in Philadelphia

Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) looks on during the fourth quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Miami-Dade Arena.
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Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley

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We have a small slate this Monday night with just 4 games in total. Detroit and Charlotte meet in the battle for Wembanyama, while Miami and Philadelphia continue their Eastern Conference rivalry. One of the most interesting games tonight has the Celtics traveling to Madison Square Garden to take on the Knicks in what could be a playoff matchup. Closing out the evening is Orlando on the road in New Orleans. I’m reluctant to bet player props on tanking teams (even unders) because it is very difficult to feel confident about minutes and rotations. Also be sure to check out all of our NBA picks for today.

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Jimmy Butler (MIA) under 33.5 PRA (-122)

Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Two teams ranked bottom 5 in PACE and top 10 in adjusted defensive rating battle when Miami travels to Philadelphia tonight. Butler is averaging 31.5 PRA over the L10 and was given a boost by playing teams in Charlotte and Orlando in that stretch. Against his old team last season, Butler was 1-2 against this number and of late, his FGA have dropped significantly. Butler hasn’t topped 11 FGA in the last 3 games and Kevin Love’s presence has given his rebounding figures a hit (2.5 rebounds per game with Love in the lineup). Love is on the injury report tonight but listed as probable and should suit up. If you want to wait for his status to be confirmed before putting the bet in, we shouldn’t see much movement off this line. 1U

Check out our Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers predictions

Marcus Smart (BOS) over 5.5 assists (+100)

Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

This play took a deep dive, but without Jaylen Brown in the lineup, we have a decent sample size of Smart’s performances. In the 8 games this season without Brown in the lineup, Smart is averaging 6.7 assists per game. His line has dropped down to 5.5 after being as high as 8.5 in mid-January, and when you add in the even-money odds, I feel we’re getting decent value. The Knicks are middle of the pack in terms of opponent assists per game (13th). Smart had 11 assists against New York back in November and Brunson will struggle defensively with the bulkier Smart, leading to a few more double teams and Smart finding the open man on the perimeter. Points in the paint will be hard to come by tonight with Mitchell Robinson back in the lineup, but perimeter scoring should be there for the Celtics. 1U

Check out our Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks predictions

Killian Hayes (DET) over 1.5 3PM (-111)

Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

I hate betting on two teams fighting for the #1 pick, but I see some mild value in Hayes tonight with so many injuries to key guys. Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivey are out, Isaiah Stewart and Bojan Bogdanovic are questionable. Hayes went 5/11 from 3P against the Hornets earlier in the season and tonight projects to be an open gym type game: very little defense/effort, tons of 3’s and hope you start off hot. Detroit will look to Hayes for backcourt and perimeter scoring if Bogdanovic is a scratch, and the only other shooter on the roster is Alec Burks. 0.5U

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$5 and a Dream Parlay (+16478)

  • Jonas Valanciunas 20+ Points (+280)
  • Marcus Smart 8+ Assists (+250)
  • Killian Hayes 3+ 3PM (+320)
  • Gary Harris 3+ 3PM (+230)

$5 pays $825

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