Filip Tomic
With just 1 day of rest in between games, game 4 of the NBA Finals will give us a good idea on where this series is headed. Indiana once again shocked everyone by winning on Wednesday and although the Thunder are still the odds-on favorites to win the series, pressure is definitely building up on them as they look to avoid going down 3-1. Going into Game 4, we hve hit 3 of our last 5 first basket picks at +450, +425 and +700 odds, so let’s try our luck here one more time!
Check out my favorite first basket scorer prop bet for Friday’s game below.
First basket scorer: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+550)
In many ways Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t live up to the expectations in Game 3 — delivering a very modest performance by his standards with just 24 points and 4 assists, shooting 9-for-20 from the field. He did start the game very aggressively, though, getting called for an offensive foul on the first possession after Chet Holmgren won the opening tip. So far in this series OKC is 3-0 on opening tips; that means in 5 games played total during the regular season and postseason, Indiana has won the opening tip only once.
In 96 games played so far this year, SGA has taken the first shot in 17% of the games (16). Although that’s only fourth most among starters, he is second in the percentage of first baskets made with 22% — accounting for 21 of them. So far in the 3 games we have seen the Pacers’defense do a solid job on the perimeter, but they’ve had their fair share of issues with the Thunder slashers. SGA should be able to take advantage of that. Winning the MVP Award has put a huge burden on his back to deliver OKC its first-ever championship, so I feel like a breakout performance is on the cards in Game 4 — which is almost a must-win game for the Thunder. Let’s hope for OKC’s sake that Gilgeous-Alexander starts off the game hot.
