Matt Selz
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NASCAR heads to Martinsville on Saturday night for the Blue Emu 400, the second short track in a row (7:30pm ET, FS1). In fact, Martinsville Speedway is the shortest track on the Cup Series schedule at just .526 miles per lap. What does that mean for us? Well, the 400 laps in the race will be being clicked off quite quickly. It also means that there are some different betting strategies that we’ll be using this week in terms of winners and props. Without further ado, let’s look at those strategies.
Martinsville betting strategies
The track known as the Paperclip — for its long, thin shape — is one at which track position matters a lot. Just how much? Well, since 2015, no one has won starting outside the top 15 on the grid and 11 times out of 14 races drivers starting P9 or better have won. That being said though, the pole-sitter hasn’t won since 2013. Drivers starting P2 haven’t won since all the way back in 2008. This is also a track where having a history of being good is almost required to have a shot of winning. If we turn our attention to prop bet strategies, we’re paying a lot of attention to starting spots. Typically speaking, the drivers starting inside the top 25 spots have the best chances of moving up in the field during the race. Meanwhile drivers outside of those starting spots tend to tread water. Lapping cars happens quickly and less than half the field has finished on the lead lap in 4 of the last 5 Martinsville races.
Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Martinsville winner picks
Best Bet: Chase Elliott +500
This is a chalky pick. But hey, chalk is good sometimes. We’ve not seen Chase Elliott dominate at races in a while and he’s not won since the middle of last year. In fact, this is his first time on pole in 70 races. Not only did he land on the pole, he did it by a 10th of a second, which is huge on a track this short. Elliott has a great long-run car based on practice and has a win at the track in his career as well. This should be the weekend the pole-sitter drought ends.
Kyle Busch +800
Kyle Busch has previously been great at Martinsville and has 3 top-10s in the last 5 races there. On the shorter, flatter tracks this year, including last week, Busch has had good speed in the #18 car. That appears to be the case this weekend as well. He ran P2 in single-lap speed at practice and P3 in long-run average before qualifying P11. That’s within striking distance for the win. Can he avenge some close losses this year and knock out his first win of 2022?
William Byron +900
Byron has been without a doubt the fastest Hendrick Chevy to this point in the season. He continues to show speed each week despite changes in track type. At Martinsville, Byron has back-to-back top-5 finishes and his 3rd top-5 in the last 5 races was a runner-up to Martin Truex in 2019. Byron had the speed to win his second race of the year last week but didn’t hold on.
Ross Chastain +2500
Chastain finished fourth here in the rain last year. In fact, he’s finished top seven in three straight road races. Chastain also comes in having posted three-straight top-three finishes this year. Remember what we said about recent momentum being a great predictor? Well Chastain has that in spades. The car has been fast all year, as well, ranking seventh in the predictive metrics. This is a great shot for the Watermelon Farmer to get his first win in the Cup Series and good return for bettors.
Brad Keselowski +3000
Brad Keselowski is a bit of a wild card this weekend, hence the longer odds. He’s run very well there in the past 5 races with 4 top-5 finishes. The only time he didn’t have a top 5, he had car trouble that led to a bad finish. Why is he a wild card though? He’s with a new team — switching from Team Penske to Roush Fenway Keselowski for this year. The team has already been penalized for cheating and he’s only had so-so speed this year. However, in the last 3 races, he’s been picking up spots well during the race. If we combine that with his history at this track, he’s got an outside shot of locking down a playoff spot on Saturday night.
Blue-Emu 400 prop bets
William Byron top Chevy +400
If we’re betting on him to win the race why wouldn’t we take these odds for top Chevy? Byron, over the last 5 races this year, has the 2nd-most top-5 finishes among all drivers. The car that’s ahead of him is Ross Chastain, a Chevy, but Byron has a far better track history, so we’re rolling with his hot streak to continue. Let’s also not forget that Byron was the highest-finishing Chevy last week.
Brad Keselowski top Ford +800
We can use the same first sentence for Byron here. With a bit of a change. He is longer odds, but a similar history at the track to Byron makes him compelling. Keselowski is also starting inside the top 10 and if he just moves up a few spots, like he’s capable of given his practice speeds, he can pay off.
Kurt Busch top-10 finish +125
I get that he’s starting P18 on Saturday night and he’s not looked great for parts of this year. However, he’s finished P10 or better 4 times in the last 5 races at Martinsville. He also posted top-10 speed in practice in short and long runs. Let’s take the positive money and run.
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