The Boston Celtics have their backs to the wall entering Game 4. After 2 wins in Boston, the Heat continued their hot shooting in Miami on Sunday night with a 26-point win. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have had no answer for Miami’s deep bench, and reports are coming out that this 0-3 start could cost Joe Mazzulla his job. If the Celtics want to bring the series back to Boston, they need to find a way to win on the road on Tuesday night. Can they grind out a win, or will Miami’s incredible postseason run continue in Game 4? Let’s get into the odds, betting lines and our expert’s predictions for Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat.
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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat spread, odds & betting lines
Odds for Celtics vs Heat courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Point spread: Celtics +1.5; Heat -1.5
Total points over/under: 215.5 points
Money line odds: Celtics +100; Heat -120
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat expert picks
Celtics vs Heat money line pick: Heat ML (-120)
The Heat are up 3-0 against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals as the #8 seed despite being underdogs in all 3 games. They look to complete the sweep on Tuesday, this time as a slight favorite for the first time. In NBA Conference Finals history, only 15% of the series have ended in sweeps and only 6 lower-seeded teams (under 4%) have been responsible for one. It is clear that this Miami Heat team is an outlier, a roster built to win playoff series. The key is that although they are led by one of the best duos in basketball in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, their role players are versatile and their options are deep.
In Game 2 it was Caleb Martin who stood out with 25 points and in Game 3 it was Gabe Vincent who lit it up for 29 points. They are still at home and role players historically step up even more at home. In Game 3, every button was clicking as the blowout featured a 54% performance from beyond the arc and despite losing the offensive rebound battle 21-1, Miami was in blowout territory as early as the second quarter.
It is discouraging for Boston that it has been 3 games and they are yet to figure out how to get Jayson Tatum a field goal in the fourth quarter, how to shoot the basketball out of Miami’s zone defense, or how to stop a pick-and-roll game defensively. There is no direction where it seems like first-year head coach Joe Mazzulla might have answers. Even when the Heat had a mediocre shooting game in Game 2 (35% from deep) and Butler was relatively unaggressive, shooting only 3 free throws and going 48% from the field with 3 turnovers, Miami was able to dominate the fourth quarter and close out that game. For that reason, it should be curtains for the Celtics and the Heat should become just the 7th team in league history to enter the NBA Finals via a sweep as the lower-seeded squad. Expect the well-rested Adebayo, who played just 26 minutes in Game 3, to dominate on both ends of the floor and end a frustrating Boston Celtics season.
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Celtics vs Heat over/under total pick: Under 215.5 points (-110)
Vegas may think they’re being slick with this one. In Game 1 in Boston, there were 239 points scored between these teams in a Heat victory that came down to clutch time. In Game 2 in Boston, both teams took a hit shooting the ball but still combined for 216 points in another clutch Heat win. In Game 3 in Miami, the script was new and 230 points were scored in a Heat blowout that was a battle of reserves in the fourth quarter. So why is the line set this low?
The market expects severe regression to the mean for both pace and jump-shooting, particularly for the Heat, who shot better than 51% from deep for the second time in this series and the third time in these playoffs. In the regular season, both teams ranked in the bottom 10 in the NBA in PACE since the All-Star break and the numbers haven’t been severely different in the playoffs. Boston will need to make adjustments to its rotations to have any shot at avoiding a sweep and one of those will likely be to focus more on guards creating and slowing down half-court offense instead of rushing against Miami’s superior athletes in transition and turning the ball over. That won’t result in better offensive statistics per se due to Miami’s elite switchability and on-ball defense, just more careful ball security. All those signs point to a sharp under and the first game of this series below this 215.5 number.
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