Buffalo Bills 2019 Betting Predictions, Odds and Expert Best Bets

Photo of the pickswise logo
Photo of Ricky Dimon

Ricky Dimon

NFL

Show Bio

Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

Best Bet – Under 7 Wins (+105)

Worst Bet – To Win the AFC (+3300)

The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs in 2017, and that was no small miracle. It was a big one. If people in the football world thought a playoff berth was an aberration as opposed to the rule for Buffalo, last season confirmed such a notion. Led by rookie quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills stumbled to a 6-10 record and fell to third place in the AFC East—better than only Oakland, the Jets, and Jacksonville in the conference. In 12 games, Allen completed just 52.8 percent of his passes and threw more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (10). He was also sacked 28 times and lost three fumbles. As a result, the team finished third-to-last in the NFL in total offense (second-to-last in passing but an impressive ninth in rushing).

A decent running game is not the only good news for Buffalo heading into the 2019 campaign. The defense placed second overall in the NFL this past year, including No. 1 against the pass by a country mile at 179 yards allowed per game. And the defense is only getting better, as the Bills’ 6-10 record garnered them the ninth pick in the draft. They used it to select Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who should contribute right away as long as he is 100 percent (he seems to be on track even though injuries plagued his final season in college). Aside from the addition of Oliver, the first-team defense remains largely the same and familiarity will likely breed superior performance.

Bills Win Total: O/U 7 Wins

Oddsmakers aren’t dumb; their lines make sense and the Bills’ total of seven wins is certainly no exception. In 12 of the past 13 seasons, they have been within a range of six to nine victories (four in 2010 is the only exception). They have been in the same range in 15 of the past 17 seasons. In other words, this is a large sample size; you know what this franchise is going to bring to the total year in and year out.

As good as the defense is, the offense is unreliable at best. Although Buffalo ran for 1,984 yards as a team in 2018, 631 of those came courtesy of Allen. The running backs did not do much, as LeSean McCoy led the way at that position with just 514 yards on a dreadful 3.2 yards-per-carry average. It is simply hard to see this offense—and this team in general—sustaining enough success down the stretch to reach .500. And a tough closing schedule does not help (vs. Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England in four of the last five weeks). This may be a push, but the Bills won’t do any better than that. They managed only six wins in 2018 and they haven’t improved by two or more.

Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes +375, No -550

The last time Buffalo was better than mediocre was 1999. In other words, this franchise appears to be suffering from a Music City Miracle curse ever since. Even its playoff campaign of 2017 featured nothing more than a 9-7 record followed by an unceremonious 10-3 loss at Jacksonville.

Allen can be expected to improve in year two, but neither his offensive line nor the Bills’ running game appear good enough to provide him with the necessary support that he needs to really take off. They will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs with New England a massive favorite in the East and teams such as Pittsburgh and the Chargers likely bidding for wild-card spots. Neither choice here is especially enticing, and neither is downright awful. ‘No’ is the better option of the two, but smarter plays on the Bills can be found.

Odds to Win the AFC East: +700

No matter that Rob Gronkowski no longer plays for New England. Nobody in their right mind can expect anything other than another division title for the Patriots. They have won it 10 times in a row and in 15 of the past 16 years (Miami got the job done in 2008, and only because Tom Brady was injured). Even if the Pats somehow faltered, it’s not like Buffalo would be a lock to be better than even the Dolphins or Jets. Miami is almost always at least respectable and New York is on the way up—albeit if not in need of another year, or more, of rebuilding. Don’t pick the Bills; don’t pick anyone other than the Patriots; don’t make this any more complicated than it is.

Odds to Win the AFC Championship: +3300

Everyone knows the saying that defense wins championships. That is not always the case, especially with the Patriots, but it is the case every now and then. And if there is one thing Buffalo can do, it’s play defense. A defensive line featuring Oliver, Star Lotulelei, and Jerry Hughes is especially formidable.

If the Bills win the division or simply make the playoffs, then clearly something is in the water. If they can go that far, then they can go a little farther (cue Andy Dufresne voice in The Shawshank Redemption). Thus, picking Buffalo to win the whole conference at +3300 is much better value than making the playoffs at +375 or taking the AFC East crown at +700. Is an AFC title going to happen? Almost certainly not. Is it worth taking a longshot flier on? Sure.

Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +6600

The Buffalo Bills playing in a Super Bowl? What could possibly go wrong?!?! They are 0-4 all time on the biggest stage in sports, losing it back-to-back-to-back-to-back from 1990 through 1993. Obviously, none of this current group was around, but still…. And this young group would be unlikely to end that trend against a presumably more experienced and downright more talented NFC team. Even at +6600, this is way too big of a risk to make it worth your while.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

BetRivers

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Win $200 if Any NBA Team Hits a Three Pointer!

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NBA game

Win $200 in free bets if any team hits a three pointer

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$150

Bet $5 & Win $150 If Your First Moneyline Bet Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on the pre-game Moneyline in any sport

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 if Any NHL Team Scores A Goal

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NHL game

Win $200 in free bets if any teams scores a goal

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Underdog Fantasy

$100

First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply