Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers Same Game Parlay: Tee finally tees off at +1187

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (85) runs against the Tennessee Titans during the first half of an NFL divisional round playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 22, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn

Andrew Ortenberg

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Cincinnati Bengals alt spread -6.5 (+480)

Tee Higgins to have 60+ receiving yards (+152)

Parlay odds: +1187

We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay which pays out at almost 12/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.

Cincinnati Bengals alt spread -6.5 (+480)

To start this Same Game Parlay we’ve got the Bengals on an alt spread. This play is more a fade of the 49ers than it is an endorsement of the Bengals. San Francisco was never as good as their 5-0 start indicated, and they’ve now been humbled with back to back losses. Brock Purdy was able to clear the concussion protocol in time so Kyle Shanahan won’t have to turn to Sam Darnold for this one, but Purdy has thrown three interceptions the past two games and looked awful two weeks ago against the Browns.

Prior to those two losses, the 49ers’ five wins came against the Cowboys, Cardinals, Giants, Rams and Steelers. The win over Dallas was dominant (and it was on national TV so it helped shape the public perception around them), but outside of that it hasn’t been anything too impressive. It’s fair to say that this is their toughest test of the season, and it comes at a time when they’re reeling and dealing with significant injuries.

Star left tackle Trent Williams appears highly questionable with a serious ankle injury, while receiver Deebo Samuel has been ruled out. The impact of Samuel’s absence can’t really be overstated, and the 49ers’ offense is a lot less intimidating without him out there. A large part of the reason Brandon Aiyuk has been able to have the success he’s had is because of the attention that Samuel normally draws from defenses.

It’s no coincidence that the two games the 49ers have lost have been the two games they didn’t have Samuel available. The Bengals got off to a slow start, but that always seems to be the case with Zac Taylor’s Cincy teams, and they’ve now won three of their past four games entering this one.

Tee Higgins to have 60+ receiving yards (+152)

I think this play correlates nicely with our Cincinnati alt spread, since if the Bengals are winning this one comfortably then they’re going to need to get somebody else involved besides Ja’Marr Chase. Chase is one of the best players in the league, but they’ve been force feeding him the ball a little too much. In their most recent game, Joe Burrow peppered him with 13 targets and he only caught six of them as the passing game struggled.

The Bengals are now coming off of their bye, and during their week off I think they’ll have made it a priority to get Higgins more involved. Higgins has been pretty quiet this season, and that directly correlates with the sagging numbers of Cincy’s aerial attack. The Clemson product had at least 8 targets in Weeks 1-3 before hurting himself in Week 4, so there’s no reason to panic about his volume.

And the bye week also likely helped Higgins heal the rib injury that he had been dealing with. Over the previous two seasons, Higgins has racked up 60+ receiving yards in 17/30 games (57%), so getting this much plus-money here at +152 feels like a steal and an overreaction from oddsmakers to a somewhat slow start. A +152 line has an implied hit rate of only 39.7 percent.

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