Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders Same Game Parlay: Commanders pull the upset at +1394 odds

Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) runs onto the field prior to the game against the Buffalo Bills at FedExField.

Andrew Ortenberg

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Washington Commanders ML (+260)

Sam Howell to have 300+ passing yards (+430)

Parlay odds: +1394

We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay which pays out at almost 14/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.

Washington Commanders ML (+260)

To start this Same Game Parlay we’ve got the Commanders on the money line. When these teams first played each other a few weeks ago it certainly wasn’t a mismatch, as it went to overtime and Washington could’ve won it at the end of regulation if Ron Rivera had opted to go for 2. And that game was in Philadelphia, so I certainly think they’ve got a good shot here at home.

And I also think the Eagles are a bit overrated, and now is the time to sell high on them after their big win in a national TV game over the Dolphins on Sunday Night Football last week. While that win over Miami was great and is surely fresh in everyone’s minds, let’s not forget that the week before they lost to Zach Wilson in the Jets. Already this season they’ve had a game come down to the final drive against the Patriots, gone to overtime against the Commanders, and lost to the Jets.

It seems like they have a habit of playing down to the level of competition against seemingly inferior teams. Washington’s defense has also been playing better the last couple games, giving up 16 points or fewer in each. Jalen Hurts has quietly been pretty sloppy with the ball, and he already has more interceptions than he did all of last season. He’s got eight in their past six games.

And Hurts has also been much less efficient as a runner. He’s averaging less than 40 rushing yards per game after clearing at least 50 per game in each of his two prior seasons as the starter.

Sam Howell to have 300+ passing yards (+430)

I think this play correlates nicely with Washington money line, since if the Commanders are winning this game then it likely means Howell had a big day. Because I don’t see them having much success on the ground against a really tough Philly run defense. Especially not with Brian Robinson struggling and seemingly being on the verge of losing his job to sixth-round rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr.

A lot will fall on Howell’s shoulders here, just like it did the first time these two teams played each other when Howell had 41 pass attempts and 290 yards. The very next week Howell threw for 388 yards, so I also think getting +430 has some standalone value here in a game where he projects to be passing a lot. He also had 299 in a Week 2 win over Denver, so getting 300+ from him here certainly wouldn’t be any sort of outlier.

Howell takes a lot of sacks, but he’s not afraid to let it rip and chuck it all over the field. Terry McLaurin always seems to have success against the Eagles, as he had 100+ yards in both matchups with them last year and then 86 in the first one of 2023. Look for Howell to go to him early and often on Sunday.

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