College basketball best bets for Tuesday, 2/21: Michigan State shines at home

We are now less than 3 weeks out from Selection Sunday, as the 2022 college basketball regular season is hitting its peak. Last weekend’s slate was a wild one and we should have more great action in store throughout this week.

While Tuesday’s lines having just been released this evening at most sportsbooks, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage. Let’s take a look at my best bets for Tuesday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.

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Michigan State Spartans -1.5 (-110) over Indiana Hoosiers

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

Seeing as this is the first home game for Michigan State since a mass shooting took place on campus on February 13, it goes without saying that emotions will be running high and I expect the crowd at the Breslin Center to be even more impactful than during a normal home game. Even removing that important context and just focusing on the on-court matchup, it’s hard not to side with the Spartans on their home floor.

Michigan State’s NCAA tournament profile is solid, but a win over a top 20 opponent would go a long way into securing the Spartans place in the field of 68. And while few teams in the Big Ten have been hotter than Indiana of late, the Hoosiers are simply not the same team on the road. Indiana is just 4-6 in true road games this season, and I expect them to struggle away from the friendly confines of Assembly Hall once again. On the other side, the Spartans have consistently taken care of business at home this season, winning 10 of their 12 games in East Lansing. This spot calls for a Michigan State victory, so I’ll lay the short number.

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Virginia Tech Hokies -1.5 (-110) over Miami Hurricanes

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

This is your “buy low, sell high” spot of the day and it comes in the ACC. Miami has been on an absolute war path over its last 10 games, as the Hurricanes are 8-2 during that span with convincing wins over Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, and Wake Forest, among others. Miami clearly looks like the second-best team in the ACC at this point, but this is probably the Hurricanes peak in the market. Now, they’ll have to head to Blacksburg for a matchup against a Virginia Tech team that is considerably healthier than the team the ‘Canes beat a month prior. The Hokies are 12-3 at home this season and 16-8 as a favorite, including recent victories over Pittsburgh and Virginia. This is arguably the best home team in the conference and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday.

Baylor Bears -1.5 (-110) over Kansas State Wildcats

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

Baylor almost looked like the national title favorites for the first half of Saturday’s game against Kansas. However, the script was flipped after the break, and it became clear that Baylor was a bit shellshocked with Kansas’ defensive intensity and the pandemonium induced by the Allen Fieldhouse crowd. While that was ultimately a difficult loss for the Bears, I believe they’ll be a lot more equipped to handle the Wildcats in this one. Not only is this a revenge spot for Scott Drew’s team, but they have a massive edge on offense, with the Wildcats sitting at just 59th in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom compared to Baylor at 2nd. Even though Kansas State has been outstanding at home all season long, I’ll take my chances with this veteran-laden Baylor squad.

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