Caleb Wilfinger
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We are now less than 2 weeks out from Selection Sunday, as the 2022 college basketball regular season is hitting its peak. Last weekend’s slate was a wild one and we should have more great action in store throughout this week. I hit all of my best bests to cash my NCAAB mega parlay at +611 odds on Saturday, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Let’s take a look at my best bets for Tuesday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
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Villanova Wildcats -1 (-110) over Seton Hall Pirates
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing
It’s rare that I say this, but Villanova is currently being underrated by the college basketball market. Yes, the Wildcats were quite poor during the initial stages of conference play, but the recent return of Justin Moore has proved to be massive for this team. ‘Nova knocked off a previously red-hot Creighton team on Saturday and did so in fairly convincing fashion. That was the 5th win in 6 games for the Wildcats, including a victory over this same Seton Hall team back on February 11. While their advanced metrics don’t look impressive on paper, this is clearly a team that is playing better than their record and numbers suggest.
Considering that Seton Hall fell in the first matchup against a Villanova team that was without Moore, I expect the Pirates to struggle with this rejuvenated Wildcats defense. Seton Hall is already 180th in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom, and these offensive issues reared their ugly head in recent losses to Creighton, Villanova, UConn and Xavier. The Pirates have dropped 4 of their last 5 games, so the situational spot would typically suggest to back them at home here. However, this team is going in the wrong direction, so I’ll lay the short number with ‘Nova.
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Texas Tech Red Raiders +10 (-110) vs Kansas Jayhawks
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Tuesday presents a chance for Kansas to clinch at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title for yet another season. And while I do think the Jayhawks ultimately will prevail in this matchup, I doubt it’ll be by a double-digit margin. After all, a similarly desperate West Virginia side just took Kansas to the wire at home, and we can expect the same from Texas Tech in this one. Yes, the Jayhawks knocked off Texas Tech in Lubbock in January, but that was a much different Red Raiders team.
Texas Tech lost a number of close games as part of a grueling Big 12 schedule in January, but the Red Raiders are playing their best basketball of the season of late. Even after wins over Kansas State, Texas and West Virginia in their last 4 games, I still think the market is slightly undervaluing this team. The Red Raiders are getting great play from De’Vion Harmon and Fardaws Aimaq, who both should hold play well in this matchup. Texas Tech will have an uphill battle waiting for them in Allen Fieldhouse, but I’ll take my chances with a team that is looking for a massive win to keep them in the NCAA Tournament picture.
Be sure to check out our full Texas Tech vs Kansas predictions
Arkansas Razorbacks +7.5 (-110) vs Tennessee Volunteers
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
The market was too low on Arkansas heading into Saturday’s game against Alabama, and that’s still the case for this matchup. The Razorbacks got star freshman guard Nick Smith back in the lineup, and it immediately showed on both sides of the ball, as they fought Alabama to the finish line in Tuscaloosa. Even after that effort, oddsmakers are underrating the Hogs in what should be a low-scoring game against Tennessee Volunteers.
Tennessee’s offensive struggles have been well-documented at this point in the season, and I don’t anticipate things changing against an Arkansas defense that should wreak havoc on the perimeter. On the other side, Tennessee’s top-ranked defense should ensure that this game should be played in the 60s. I think the Razorbacks keep this close in what should be a defensive struggle.
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