Caleb Wilfinger
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It’s a loaded Saturday slate in college basketball as programs big and small are taking the court for another jam-packed day of hoops. With so many exciting games, I’ve combed through the board and found a few edges that I believe can create a parlay with an excellent payout of over 14/1 odds!
Let’s take a look at my 3-team mega parlay for Saturday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
TCU -3.5 (-110)
Iowa State ML (+320)
Baylor -6 (-110)
Parlay odds: +1430
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TCU Horned Frogs -3.5 (-110) over Kansas State Wildcats
This game is a prime bounce-back spot for the Horned Frogs after they blew an 18-point lead in the second half of a brutal road loss to Texas. This TCU team is still one of the premier sides in the Big 12, and I actually think we’re getting a bit of value on them following that disastrous second half. After all, the Frogs still covered the spread and they should do so once again. The Wildcats have clearly exceeded expectations to this point, but regression is coming for this Kansas State team. The Wildcats are 19th in KenPom’s luck ranking, while TCU sits outside the top 150. Kansas State is also 3-0 in overtime games over its current 11-game winning streak. This is a textbook, buy low and sell high spot, so I’ll back TCU to cover this short number.
Iowa State Cyclones ML (+320) over Kansas Jayhawks
This is a game where both teams are not quite being priced correctly compared to their respective metrics. Kansas is certainly one of the nation’s best teams, but the Jayhawks have strangely struggled to cover the spread at home. Phog Allen Fieldhouse is arguably the best venue in college basketball, but Kansas is off to an 0-2 start ATS at home during Big 12 play. The Jayhawks were fortunate to survive against Oklahoma on Wednesday and now they’ll face another great defensive team in Iowa State.
The Cyclones are holding teams to under 60 points per game in conference play, sitting at 6th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. Iowa State is also near the bottom of college basketball in adjusted tempo, which should help limit the possessions and chances for Kansas to get out and run. The Cyclones should cover this inflated 8-point spread, so I’d recommend playing that number. But why not get a little crazy? Kansas’ last 2 home games have been decided by a combined 7 points, and the Jayhawks have a massive look-ahead spot to a date with Kansas State on Tuesday. Given the situation, it’s worth taking a stab at this massive money-line price for Iowa State.
Baylor Bears -6 (-110) over Oklahoma State Cowboys
To round out our Saturday college hoops mega parlay, we’re going with the Baylor Bears in a great spot at home. Baylor went from being overvalued, to now a touch undervalued against an Oklahoma State team that while elite defensively, has had trouble keeping up on offense. The Cowboys have a top-10 defense per KenPom, but Baylor’s offense is 8th in adjusted efficiency while playing one of the nation’s toughest schedules thus far. That means it’ll be difficult for this Oklahoma State team to match that explosiveness, as the Cowboys sit at 122nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 276th in offensive rating. Look for the guard trio of Keyonte George, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer to pace Baylor’s balanced attack and grab an early lead. If the Cowboys are forced to play from behind, it could get ugly in Waco.
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