College basketball Sunday three-team mega parlay (+1012): I know you Rider

The Rider Broncs
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Ricky Dimon

NCAAB· 1 month ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

Thanksgiving week is dominated by football and that is especially the case on the weekend, but don’t forget about college basketball. We are wrapping up the week on the hardwood with a ton of games, and among the teams in action are Kansas, Florida, Villanova, South Carolina, Alabama, Miami (FL), Colorado, and Stanford. Alabama and Colorado are two of the squads we need to come up big for the hopes of this parlay.

Rider +16 (-110)

Alabama -10.5 (-110)

Colorado -9.5 alternate spread (+205)

Parlay odds: +1012

For this parlay we are going with two favorites against the spread (one on an alternate spread) and one underdog plus the points. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.

Rider +16 over South Carolina (-110)

Rider should be relatively comfortable playing at the same pace as South Carolina. Excluding last year when the Broncs played just three non-conference games, they have ranked inside the top 50 of KenPom adjusted tempo in every season since 2016. This is crucial against South Carolina, which plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country. The Gamecocks attempt speed up their opponents to force turnovers, evidenced by their ranking of 57th in defensive turnover rate per KenPom. However, Rider has been good at taking care of the ball so far this year — ranking 82nd in offensive turnover rate. This game comes at a good time for the Broncs, as well, because they just faced Middle Tennessee earlier this week. Middle Tennessee is another team that tries to to force turnovers and actually ranks 22nd in that category. South Carolina is a better team than Middle Tennessee, but at least handling press defenses should have been a focal point in recent practices for the Broncs. On the other end of the court, Rider’s defense excels in one category that is really important if the underdogs want to keep this game close: transition defense. The Broncs rank in the 90th percentile in transition defense per Synergy, so they have a chance at making things difficult for a South Carolina team that ranks 48th in transition offense rate.

Check out our Rider vs South Carolina preview

Alabama -10.5 over Miami (-110)

The Hurricanes enter this big-time game with a 4-2 record after beating North Texas in their last contest. They have not looked great so far this season, narrowly beating FAU 68-66 and falling to Dayton and UCF. The ‘Canes are giving up 71 ppg while averaging just 74.8 ppg on the offensive end. Alabama enters Sunday’s game 5-1 with its only loss coming to Iona on Thursday. The Tide were stunned by Iona in the first round of the ESPN Events Invitational losing 72-68. Iona was able to slow down the high-powered Alabama offense and hold the Crimson Tide to shoot just 29.4 percent from beyond the arc. Alabama bounced back in a big way on Friday, beating Drake 80-71. Guard Jaden Shackelford has been amazing for Alabama this season, averaging 18.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. Alabama’s offense is averaging 84 points per game and loves to push the pace. Miami has struggled defensively, so this one could get out of hand.

Check out our Miami vs Alabama preview

Colorado -9.5 alternate spread over Stanford (+205)

These two Pac-12 rivals are built similarly, as both try to score inside the three-point arc. Colorado ranks 341st in three-point attempt rate, while Stanford ranks 233rd in that category. As such, this game will likely be determined on the interior — which is where Colorado has the advantage. The Buffaloes’ interior defense has been solid, ranking 86th in two-point percentage defense per KenPom. However Stanford’s interior defense has been sub-par — ranking just 322nd in that same category. The Buffaloes obviously has the advantage of playing at home in this one, a place that Stanford head coach Jerod Haase has not won in his five seasons. Not only are road games tough as it is, but Colorado also actually has the biggest home-court advantage in the country per KenPom’s metric. Stanford has lost each of its first two road games by a minimum of 16 points and it would not be a shock to see that happen again on Sunday.

Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for Sunday

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