College basketball Thursday parlay at mega +725 odds today 3/9: Hogs have value
Conference championship week in college basketball is here, as programs big and small are taking the court for a chance to reach the NCAA tournament. With so many exciting games, I have combed through the board and found a few edges that I believe can create a parlay with an excellent payout of over 7/1 odds!
Let’s take a look at my 3-team mega parlay for Thursday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
Arkansas ML (+100)
Penn State ML (+125)
TCU -1.5 (-120)
NCAAB parlay odds: +725
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Arkansas Razorbacks ML (+100) over Auburn Tigers
I was surprised to see Auburn listed as a short favorite in this spot considering the Tigers’ struggles away from home. Auburn is 0-6 in its last 6 games played away from the the Jungle, with a few of those losses being rather convincing defeats. The Tigers don’t shoot well from the outside, and I don’t any positive shooting regression coming against this Razorbacks defense. Arkansas has lost 3 straight, which has created a nice buy-low spot for a team who could have easily won 2 of those games. The Razorbacks are 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency and create havoc on opponents by forcing turnovers and attacking the paint. If the Hogs are able to get Auburn’s mercurial guards out of rhythm, they’ll have a massive leg up in this one. I’ll back this team in a tournament setting.
Penn State Nittany Lions ML (+125) vs Illinois
You’ll often hear that it’s a challenge to beat a team 3 times in the same season, but I’m not sure that holds true here. After all, Penn State was in complete control of its first 2 meetings against Illinois, so why would that change in this setting? Yes, the Illini will likely have the greater fan support, but the Nittany Lions are playing much better basketball in recent weeks. Penn State is fresh off victories over Northwestern and Maryland to keep its postseason hopes alive, while Illinois escaped against Michigan with a very fortunate overtime win before falling to Purdue on Saturday. Furthermore, the on-court matchup is one that favors the Nittany Lions, as Penn State controls the game with its deliberate tempo (324th per KenPom), takes and makes a ton of 3-pointers and doesn’t turn the ball over. I’ll gladly back the Nittany Lions to complete the season sweep.
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TCU Horned Frogs -1.5 (-120) over Kansas State Wildcats
At the start of the conference season, I was high on TCU’s chances to capture the Big 12 tournament title, and my belief in the Horned Frogs hasn’t wavered. As I mentioned in my tournament preview, TCU has looked like a much different team since the return of Mike Miles Jr. at point guard. The Horned Frogs have already shown that they can knock off the likes of Kansas, Texas, Kansas State and Baylor, so this setting will not be intimidating for Jamie Dixon’s team. With Miles in the lineup, TCU knocked off Kansas State and its loss to the Wildcats was during a difficult road stretch where the Horned Frogs didn’t have the services of Miles or Eddie Lampkin Jr. While Lampkin will miss the rest of the season for personal reasons, TCU has a fully healthy Miles at the controls and should thrive in a track meet with this up-tempo Kansas State team.
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