Ricky Dimon
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The College Football Playoff is here. Monday’s national semifinal action gets underway with the Rose Bowl, which features the #1 Michigan Wolverines against the fourth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide. Michigan is undefeated and wrapped up its regular season by beating Ohio State before destroying Iowa in the Big Ten Championship. Alabama upset Georgia in the SEC title game and then controversially got a spot in the CFP at the expense of a previously undefeated Florida State squad.
Here is my SGP for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 5:00 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Alabama vs Michigan predictions.
Alabama -5 alternate spread (+179)
Jalen Milroe Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130)
Blake Corum to score a touchdown (-185)
Parlay odds: +625
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe throwing multiple touchdown passes would obviously work well with a big win by the Crimson Tide. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Michigan running back Blake Corum to find the endzone. But even if that happens, there is no reason why ‘Bama can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Alabama -5 alternate spread (+179)
Despite the on-going drama surrounding the Michigan football program, it finished the season with a perfect 13-0 record after being crowned Big Ten champion for the third consecutive season. Statistically, the Wolverines are awesome on the defensive side of the ball. However, it is difficult to decipher just how good Michigan’s defense truly is given a relatively light schedule compared to that of other playoff teams. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s squad has not yet run into a quarterback with the dual-threat capabilities that Milroe possesses. Down the stretch Alabama’s offense improved dramatically compared to its early-season performances. The Crimson Tide finished the season top 15 in PPA per play and standard-down PPA over the last 7 weeks due in large part to Milroe’s rushing capabilities, so don’t be surprised if he evades pressures and converts a few third downs with his legs in this matchup. On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines could struggle with the size, speed and athleticism of Alabama’s defense. Despite their manageable schedule, they were just 55th in PPA per play, 42nd in offensive success rate and 122nd in explosiveness in non-garbage time since Week 8. We all saw how UM moaned and groaned when it was revealed that it would be playing against ‘Bama instead of FSU. We’re probably going to find out why.
Jalen Milroe Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130)
Milroe has been money throughout the second half of the season. He went from the brink of getting benched to becoming one of the best players in college football and a sure-fire Heisman Trophy front-runner in 2024. The sophomore has thrown only 1 interception in the last 5 games and has tossed at least 2 touchdown passes in 4 straight, including 3 twice. Overall he has 9 multi-touchdown performances. As those numbers suggest, Milroe — who has always done damage with his legs (12 rushing TDs) — has really caught fire through the air. The Katy, Texas native should be able to keep it rolling in the Rose Bowl.
Blake Corum to score a touchdown (-185)
There’s no need to overthink this one; Corum should have no trouble finding the endzone at least once on Monday. The 5’8’’ senior has scored a ridiculous 24 touchdowns this season, all on the ground. He has scored multiple TDs in 5 consecutive contests, including 3 against Purdue on November 4. Needless to say, asking Corum to deliver just 1 in the Rose Bowl is a modest proposition. Alabama’s rushing defense has been nothing special, with 124.5 yards per game allowed on 3.7 yards per carry. The Tide have surrendered 14 rushing touchdowns.
