College Football Week 7 parlay at mega +1120 odds for Saturday 10/14: Don't expect points in Happy Valley
While this week doesn’t have a lot of depth to it, the top end matchups should all be fantastic games. As a whole, the week still offers plenty of compelling matchups that will play a part in bowl qualification and conference title races. However, these glamorous games are not what we’re going to be targeting this week. No, instead I’ll be digging in the trash this week for my 3-leg parlay with a mega payout of +1392 odds.
This is one of those weeks where it stakes a strong stomach to back these plays, but all winning wagers pay out the same! Without any further ado, Let’s take a look at each of the legs.
UMass vs Penn State under 55 (-110)
Pittsburgh ML (+235)
Iowa +10 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
UMass Minutemen vs Penn State Nittany Lions Under 55 (-110)
This is one of the biggest look-ahead spots of the week for a Penn State team that has Ohio State on deck in a classic case of “will they even care?” against UMass this weekend. This massive 42-point spread is deserved as Penn State has been electric to start the 2023 season, especially defensively. The Nittany Lions’ defense has been stellar, wreaking havoc in opposing backfields and forcing a ton of turnovers to this point. They should have no issues slowing down a UMass offense that — while improved — still can’t hang with an elite unit like this. On the other side of the ball, I expect another clean and efficient game from Drew Allar. But the offensive coaching staff should be extra vanilla with the Buckeyes on deck, so I’d also look for Penn State to run the ball early and often. Let’s back the under in what should be an extremely uneventful 41-3 win for the Nittany Lions.
Check out our full UMass vs Penn State predictions
Pittsburgh Panthers ML over Louisville Cardinals (+235)
Sometimes college football is beyond explanation, and that’s exactly what I could see happening in Pittsburgh on Saturday. This Pitt team has been just awful in 2023, especially on the offensive side of the ball. However, the Panthers might get a boost offensively after benching Boston College transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who was having one of the worst seasons I can remember from a Power 5 QB in quite some time. Christian Veilleux will be inserted into the starting job and he should see success against a Louisville defense that has some holes, as exploited by Georgia Tech, Boston College and even lowly Indiana. I could certainly see the QB change fueling an offense that was previously nonexistent.
At the end of the day, this is simply a spot play. Pittsburgh is coming off of a bye at the absolute lowest point of its market value against a Louisville team that is flying high after knocking off Notre Dame in front of the whole country. I do expect the Panthers to keep this game within the number, but let’s get a little greedy and add the Pitt money line as the key leg in our mega parlay this week.
Lock in our expert’s NCAAF Week 7 best bets
Iowa Hawkeyes +10 vs Wisconsin Badgers (-110)
For our final leg of this mega parlay, we’re going with another ugly team, this time it’s the Iowa Hawkeyes catching double digits against Wisconsin. Both of these teams entered the season with higher hopes for their offenses, but that success hasn’t come to fruition thus far. Wisconsin still has Braelon Allen at running back, but the Badgers new-look passing game under offensive coordinator Phil Longo has struggled to find consistency (79th in EPA per pass, 65th in pass success rate). The Badgers also dead average in early downs EPA, often playing from behind the chains — even against inferior competition. That won’t fly against this Iowa team that once again has an extremely strong defense, ranking inside the top 20 in pass success rate, early downs EPA and net points per drive per College Football Data.
On the flip side, this Hawkeye offense is about as bad as it gets — ranking outside the top 110 in EPA per pass, EPA per rush, passing success rate, rush success rate and net points per drive. However, as we’ve seen in the past, all shenanigans are possible with this Iowa team, so I wouldn’t rule it out if the Hawkeyes don’t score more than 3-7 offensive points and had to rely on a defensive or special teams touchdown to get us to the window. However, that still doesn’t justify at 10-point line to me — particularly not with a total of 34 points (and dropping). I just don’t have much faith in either passing offense and I’m fully aware that these coaches are more than happy to run the ball and grind out long drives that lead to field goals in the red zone.
Read our full Iowa vs Wisconsin predictions