Andrew Ortenberg
March Madness is officially full steam ahead, and with the NCAA Tournament now underway we’ll be bringing you a special edition of our usual public money update each day. With an event this large betting volume will be off the charts, and the public can actually move markets this time of year. It’s important to keep track of what the heavy public sides are, whether you’re looking to tail or fade that movement.
Check out our March Madness hub to stay on top of everything that goes on. Also, be sure to check out our picks on the side and total for every single game in the tournament. But first, let’s dive into what we’re seeing in terms of public trends on Sunday:
Wisconsin vs. Baylor over 137.5
Let’s start things off with a total. The public is expecting a lot of points in this #1/#9 matchup in the South region, as 72 percent of the bets and 77 percent of the money are on the over in this matchup between Baylor and Wisconsin, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us. The public just saw Wisconsin drop 85 in their Round of 64 win over North Carolina, and didn’t need to see much else.
But Wisconsin’s defense was also lockdown in that game, holding UNC to only 62. Baylor’s offense certainly didn’t look impressive to me, as they shot just 41 percent from the floor against lowly Hartford in their first game. Wisconsin has a lineup of all seniors and they play at a really slow pace, so for all those reasons we’re fading the public and going with the under here.
Syracuse vs. West Virginia under 147
Now here’s something we don’t see every day, a public under! Everybody watched as Syracuse’s patented zone defense just completely shutdown San Diego State’s offense in the Round of 64, and they’re expecting a similar effort here. 74 percent of the bets and 73 percent of the money are on the under in this matchup as Syracuse looks to pull off a second straight upset.
Syracuse held SDSU to only 62 points, and if they can do something similar here then the under will almost certainly cash. West Virginia just held Morehead State to 67 in the first round, and you know a Bob Huggins coached team is going to play intense defense in March Madness. We can argue with the public on this one, we’re backing the under too.
Oral Roberts +8.5 vs. Florida
March Madness might be the only time of year where the public truly loves their underdogs. Every NCAA Tournament there are underdog stories that capture all of our hearts, and Oral Roberts might be this year’s Cinderella. After they shocked Ohio State in the first round, bettors are going right back to the well in the Round of 32. 70 percent of the bets and 69 percent of the money are on Oral Roberts plus the points on Sunday.
80 percent of the money and 77 percent of the bets are also on Oral Roberts’ money line at +260. The Golden Eagles’ win over Ohio State wasn’t just a fluke, they actually have some elite scoring talent. Max Abmas isn’t a one-hit wonder, he should ball out again here against a Florida team that needed overtime to best Virginia Tech. We’re taking this heartwarming underdog as well.
North Texas vs. Villanova over 127
A lot of the spreads on Sunday are pretty evenly split, so we’re seeing most of the lopsided action on totals. 77 percent of the bets and 68 percent of the money are on the over in this South region matchup. It’s interesting to see bettors gravitate toward an over here, since these are two of the slowest teams in the entire country. A lot of people probably bet the under in North Texas’ first game against Purdue, and after getting burned there are switching things up.
But that final score was probably a bit fluky, and went to overtime, and this game is going to be played almost exclusively in the half-court. North Texas ranks 350th out of only 357 D1 teams in tempo this year, while Villanova ranks 321st. Villanova’s length should smother North Texas, so we’re fading the public here.
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