College Basketball Picks

College basketball picks for the 2023/24 season. Get college basketball expert picks against the spread and totals for the best matchups throughout college basketball every day. We also have you covered for the best action throughout March Madness 2024. Check out our College Basketball Best Bets for our top plays on today’s games.

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Wagner Seahawks
Wagner Seahawks
WAG
Today
truTV
HU
Howard Bison - NCAAB
Howard Bison - NCAAB
Point Spread Pick
Howard -3.0Wagner @ Howard

The Howard Bison are back in the NCAA Tournament for the 2nd consecutive season. Last year’s tournament appearance resulted in a forgettable 96-68 loss to Kansas, but this year presents a better opportunity to win because they will be playing in the First Four in Dayton on Tuesday night. They will square off against Wagner, who earned its first NCAA Tournament berth since 2003 after winning the Northeast Conference tournament.

Howard struggles defensively, but it is difficult to trust Wagner’s offense. The Seahawks are 334th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and they have not been much better in recent weeks – ranking 349th in eFG% since the middle of February. Wagner has just 1 healthy player with an eFG% higher than 50%, yet somehow won its conference tournament without scoring more than 66 points in any of its games. The Seahawks play slow and will likely try to limit Howard’s possessions, but the Bison still seem to have an edge offensively in this matchup. They are shooting over 41% from deep over the last month, and they have a top 20 free throw rate in that time. The Bison also excel in creating second chance opportunities via offensive rebounds. Give me Howard.

Howard Bison -3 at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 128.5Wagner @ Howard

This game projects to have a very low amount of possessions, as Wagner and Howard are outside the top 220 in percentage of initial field goal attempts in transition per Hoop-Math. Wagner plays at an especially slow pace and is inefficient with the ball in its hands, ranking 353rd in eFG% and 334th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Howard has enough offensively to cover the spread, but the Bison are likely to be faced with some resistance from Wagner’s defense. The Seahawks are 22nd nationally in opposing eFG% since the middle of February, including 19th when defending the 3-point line. Late-game fouling is a concern, but the under makes sense in this game. 

Under 128.5 at the time of publishing. Playable to 127.5.

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$19.52
Sam Avellone
Colorado State Rams
Colorado State Rams
CSU
Today
truTV
UVA
Virginia Cavaliers - NCAAB
Virginia Cavaliers - NCAAB
Point Spread Pick
Virginia +3.0Colorado State @ Virginia

It has been two days since we had college basketball to bet on, so a First Four matchup between Virginia and Colorado State will have to do. This game is going to be slow and ugly, and many will be thinking, “I could be watching Indiana State and St Johns light up the scoreboard right now,” but here we are. Colorado State is the higher-rated team according to the metrics, but they did a lot of their work early in the season. The Rams beat Creighton and Colorado, started the season with a long undefeated streak, and even climbed as high as 13 in the national polls. Since conference play started, though, they have just been okay, and they have really struggled away from home. I think this is a spot where the Rams will be the trendy pick, especially with all the Virginia hate, but the Cavaliers are probably the right pick for those interested in making money.

The Cavs are ugly, and I am mad that they are in the field. They appear to believe that defense is all that is required, as they have a top 10 defense but an offense ranked outside the top 100. Couple that with their dreadfully slow pace of play and you have one of the worst offenses in the country. They only seem to run one play—a high back screen that leads to a skip pass and a jumper from the wing. That’s it. It is painful to watch, but this is probably the right matchup for Virginia to succeed. As slow as this game will be, it is likely to stay close also. I’ll take the points with the Hoos.

Virginia +3 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 120.5Colorado State @ Virginia

Slow. That will be the name of this game. The Virginia Cavaliers are the slowest team in the country, according to KemPom, checking in with an adjusted tempo of 362 out of 362. Colorado State doesn’t play much faster, checking in at 270. We know that Virginia will not change its style under any circumstances, and they usually drag their opponents down to their style. The Rams seem to me the kind of team that will let the opponent set the terms, and thus I expect them to play slow as well. It would be hard to play the over in this one, even with this ridiculously low total.

Pace of place is one thing. But we will also have two teams playing in a new building and with the pressure of the tournament on top of that, both of which tend to result in fewer made baskets and more conservative game play. This game really might not make it into the 60s. Oddsmakers opened this game at 118.5, but the market pushed it up a couple points. I think Vegas was probably right in the first place. This game is going to be a slow grind. Take the under.

Under 120.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number

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Chad Hartsock
Grambling State Tigers - NCAAB
Grambling State Tigers - NCAAB
GSU
Tomorrow
truTV
MSU
Montana State Bobcats
Montana State Bobcats
Point Spread Pick
Montana State -4.0Grambling State @ Montana State

This First Four matchup features the SWAC Champion, the Grambling Tigers, against the Big Sky Champion, the Montana State Bobcats. The winner will move on to face Purdue, the #1 seed in the Midwest Region. As with every game during March Madness, it’s all about the matchup, which appears to favor Montana State. Per Synergy, Grambling plays zone defense at the 17th-highest rate in the country. While Montana State has not faced that much zone this season, they have had great success against it. According to Synergy, Montana State ranks in the 94th percentile in zone offense this season.

On the other end of the court, Montana State’s defense forces turnovers at a top-75 rate in the country. Grambling has struggled to take care of the ball all season, as they rank 341st in offensive turnover rate, per KenPom. Look for the Bobcats to use their defense to fuel their offense and cover the spread of just over one possession.

Montana State -4 available at publishing. Playable to Montana State -4.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Over 134.5Grambling State @ Montana State

As mentioned in the point spread write-up, Montana State ranks in the 94th percentile in zone offense, which is key against Grambling’s defense. The Bobcats are a very good three-point shooting team, as they rank 74th in three-point rate and 43rd in three-point percentage. Additionally, Montana State is going to look to push the tempo, as they rank in the top 100 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo stat. Expect to see Montana State reach its season average of 75.1 points per game.

On the other end of the court, Grambling has a path to efficient offense as well via the free-throw line. Grambling ranks 31st nationally in free-throw rate and Montana State ranked dead-last in free-throw rate allowed in the Big Sky Conference. Look for decent offensive games from each team and for the over to cash.

Over 134.5 available at publishing. Playable to Over 135.5

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Matt Marquart
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State Spartans
MSU
Thu Mar 21
CBS
MISS
Mississippi State Bulldogs- NCAAB
Mississippi State Bulldogs- NCAAB
Point Spread Pick
Mississippi State +1.0Michigan State @ Mississippi State

The First Round of the NCAA Tournament tips off with a projected coin-flip matchup between the 8th-seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs and 9th-seeded Michigan State Spartans on Thursday afternoon. Despite the Bulldogs sitting higher on the committee’s seed list, the Spartans are slight 1.5-point favorites to advance to the Round of 32. I certainly can’t fault the betting market for pricing Tom Izzo’s squad as the favorites, considering his teams consistently play their best basketball in March when it matters most. However, I like Mississippi State to outmuscle Michigan State on their way to the Round of 32.

Both squads are defensive-minded teams, boasting top-20 defenses per KenPom, while their offenses rank outside the top 55. This sets up a heavyweight fight that figures to be decided in the final minutes. Although Michigan State’s interior defense ranks inside the top 50 relative to their two-point scoring rate (47.2%), I give Mississippi State’s frontcourt the edge here. Forwards Tolu Smith (15.2 ppg) and Cameron Matthews (9.5 ppg) will be tough covers over 40 minutes. Factor in the microwave scoring abilities of freshman guard Josh Hubbard (17.1 ppg) along with the Bulldogs’ elite offensive rebounding numbers (35.4%; 21st in D1), and Mississippi State grinds out a First-Round win.

Mississippi State +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to -1 (-120).

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Game Totals Pick
Under 130.5Michigan State @ Mississippi State

With neither team in a hurry to push the pace on offense – ranking in the bottom half of the country in average possession length – coupled with two top-20 defenses, expect a low-scoring rock fight. This makes the under 130.5 (-110) the recommended play.

Although the betting market anticipates a low-scoring, defensive-minded contest with a rather low total of 130.5, this game could easily be played in the low 60s with both offenses struggling at times in the halfcourt. I do see some correlation between the side (winner) and total. A Mississippi State win does correlate with the game falling under the total.

Much of this has to do with the 3-point line. The Spartans enter the Tournament boasting the nation’s 65th-best 3-point scoring rate (35.9%) but could struggle from deep against an elite Mississippi State perimeter defense that holds opponents to the sixth-lowest 3-point scoring rate (29.4%). On the flip side, Mississippi State doesn’t shoot the 3-ball at a high clip (32.5%; 247th), so look for the Bulldogs to attack the paint with plenty of two-point shots, benefiting under backers.

Under 130.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Nick Musial
Akron Zips
Akron Zips
AKR
Thu Mar 21
TNT
CRE
Creighton Bluejays
Creighton Bluejays
Point Spread Pick
Creighton -12.5Akron @ Creighton

This Midwest Region matchup features the #3 seed Creighton Bluejays against the #14 seed Akron Zips. This is Akron’s second NCAA Tournament appearance in three years and many players are still around from the #13 seed that nearly knocked off UCLA in the First Round in 2022. Despite the impressive performance during that March Madness, this matchup with Creighton is a pretty difficult one. Creighton’s defense is designed to force their opponent into two-point jump shots, which they force at the highest rate in the country according to Hoop-Math. This strategy has led to a top-25 defense according to KenPom, as they attempt to prevent shots near the rim and from beyond the arc. Creighton is also very good in post-up defense, which is key against Akron. Per Synergy, the Zips play through the post at the second-highest rate in the country, only behind Purdue. Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner ranks in the 85th percentile in post-up defense and recently won the Big East Defensive Player of the Year for the third consecutive season.

On the other end of the court, Creighton could find success in transition. The Bluejays rank in the 90th percentile in transition offense according to Synergy, while Akron ranks in just the 20th percentile in transition defense. Expect to see Akron hang around for a half before Creighton ultimately covers the number.

Creighton -12.5 available at publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 141.5Akron @ Creighton

In the game totals market, the under is the recommended side to bet. As mentioned in the point spread write-up, Creighton’s defense is excellent at forcing the opponent into inefficient shots. Creighton ranks in the 95th percentile in rim defense according to Synergy and it is extremely difficult to get hot from the three-point line against them due to the fact that they allow the fifth-lowest three-point attempt rate in the country. Akron’s offense ranks just 162nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, so it is unlikely we see a ton of points from the Zips.

Creighton’s offense is extremely potent, but the one area in which they are not excellent is offensive rebounding. Creighton ranks just 282nd in offensive rebounding rate, so it’s likely the Bluejays will be limited to just one shot on the majority of their possessions. As a matter of fact, both teams led their conference in defensive rebounding rate this season, so second-chance points could be few and far between. Lastly, we can safely assume that Akron Coach John Groce is going to do everything in his power to slow this game down. Two years ago, Akron’s game against UCLA finished with just 58 possessions, which is a big reason why the Zips had a chance to win the game. Expect to see Akron attempt to slow the game down to a crawl, which is helpful for the under.

Under 141.5 available at publishing. Playable to Under 139.5.

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Matt Marquart
Nevada Wolfpack-NCAAB
Nevada Wolfpack-NCAAB
NEV
Thu Mar 21
TBS
DAY
Dayton Flyers- NCAAB
Dayton Flyers- NCAAB
Point Spread Pick
Nevada -1.0Nevada @ Dayton

The 7th-seeded Dayton Flyers find themselves slight 1-point underdogs in their First Round matchup in the West Region against the 10th-seeded Nevada Wolfpack. I concur with the betting market’s assessment of this game, with the 10th-seeded Wolfpack favored against a Flyers’ team that faltered down the stretch of the regular season.

Dayton’s offense revolves around the 3-point line, boasting the nation’s third-highest three-point scoring rate (40.2%) entering the NCAA Tournament. Nearly 45 percent of Dayton’s total shot volume comes from beyond the arc, making perimeter defense a priority for Nevada. Nevada’s defense has done a fine job all year long, ranking 38th in defensive three-point scoring rate (31.2%). This gives me confidence they can contain Dayton’s lethal three-point shooting.

In a projected close game that could come down to the final minutes, I’d rather trust Nevada guards Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas to create offense off the dribble compared to Dayton’s backcourt of Kobe Elvis and Enoch Cheeks. Back the Wolfpack at this short spread to get past the Flyers.

Nevada -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable up to -2 (-115).

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Game Totals Pick
Under 136.5Nevada @ Dayton

Nevada’s ability to limit Dayton’s effectiveness from the three-point line will likely lead to a lower-scoring contest, favoring the under 136.5 (-110). Expect plenty of lengthy possessions between two offenses in no hurry to take shots early in the shot clock, as both teams rank well below the D1 average in offensive possession length.

Dayton may own the nation’s ninth-best effective field goal percentage (56.5 eFG%), but they are in for a tough test against a steady Nevada defense that has played plenty of strong offenses in the well-rounded Mountain West conference this year. Back the under in what figures to be a half-court, grind-it-out type of matchup.

Under 136.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Nick Musial
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
SDSU
Thu Mar 21
truTV
ISU
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State Cyclones
Point Spread Pick
Iowa State -16.5South Dakota State @ Iowa State

Thursday’s opening round action brings us Iowa State and South Dakota State, played in Omaha. That gives us a good chance to have both fan bases represented, but we also know that Iowa State fans travel better than anybody, so expect a heavily gold-and-cardinal environment. Iowa State got here by smoking the Big 12 tournament, including massive wins over Baylor and Houston. There is little question that the Cyclones are as hot as anyone in the nation right now. The Jackrabbits, however, are riding an 8-game winning streak of their own, on their way to winning the Summit League. Typical of the NCAA, there is a storyline here, insofar as Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger used to coach at South Dakota State. This game has a large spread attached to it, but I am going to back the Clones in a lopsided game here.

The Cyclones are now the top defensive team in the country. The Jackrabbits will not have seen anything close to the pressure they are about to face in the opening round, especially the on-ball pressure on the guards. The Cyclones also protect the rim and clear the glass, and they will likely have a lopsided rebounding advantage. If you are going to score on Iowa State, it needs to be from deep, but shooting well in a strange gym in the opening round of the tournament is typically a difficult task. I think the Jackrabbits will struggle to get to 60 points. The difference in the spread, though, depends on the Cyclone offense. There are not a lot of headliners or flashy scorers on this team, but they have steadily improved offensively all season. Don’t sleep on the Cyclones. This team is nasty and dangerous, and this first round game should be blowout city.

Iowa State -16.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number

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Game Totals Pick
Under 135.5South Dakota State @ Iowa State

I think this number is too high. Iowa State is a suffocating defense. They held Houston to 41, and they held a good Baylor offense to 62. I don’t see any reason that South Dakota State can outperform that line, and 60 seems like the absolute ceiling. Neither of these teams plays at a particularly fast pace, and the Jackrabbits, despite what their fleet-footed mascot would imply, do not want to get in an up-and-down affair with the Cyclones. Iowa State is really good at forcing turnovers and running early, but if they get a lead, they will sit on the ball on offense while their defense makes you spend 28 seconds finding a halfway decent look. This game should be entirely controlled by the Iowa State defense.

There have been years when South Dakota State is a scary first round draw for a top-seeded team. This is not that year. The Jackrabbits check in at 134 per KenPom, they do not create second-chance points, and they probably won’t get to the foul line much in this game. They won a Summit League that was weak overall this year, and I think this game finishes somewhere around 75-55. Again, look for the Cyclones to take control of the game early, then shorten the game with long possessions and a controlling style the rest of the way.

Under 135.5 available at the time of publishing; playable to 133.

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Chad Hartsock
St. Peter's Peacocks
St. Peter's Peacocks
SPU
Thu Mar 21
TNT
TEN
Tennessee Volunteers - NCAAB
Tennessee Volunteers - NCAAB
Point Spread Pick
Tennessee -21.5St. Peter's @ Tennessee

The Saint Peter’s Peacocks and the Tennessee Volunteers will meet in round one of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night in Charlotte. This matchup will be one of the last ones of the day as it will tip off at 9:20pm Eastern Standard Time and it can be seen on TNT. Saint Peter’s is back in the NCAA Tournament since their historic Cinderella run back in 2022 but we do not expect a similar result this March. Tennessee has been one of the best teams in the country all year long and see them covering the spread in this one.

Tennessee -21.5 is our expert pick and prediction for this one because we expect their defense to dominate the game. The Volunteers have an elite defense while the Peacocks offense has not been good. Saint Peter’s is ranked #336 in points per game this season, so we do not see them being able to score points consistently enough to keep the game within the big spread number. According to KenPom, Tennessee’s defense is ranked #3 in adjusted efficiency, #7 in effective field goal percentage and #9 in two-point percentage. Saint Peter’s offense is ranked in the 300s in all those categories and that should be the difference in this one. Take Tennessee to cover here.

*Tennessee -21.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -23*

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$37.54
Lock Mamba
Samford Bulldogs - NCAAB
Samford Bulldogs - NCAAB
SAM
Thu Mar 21
TBS
KAN
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas Jayhawks
Point Spread PickBest Bet
Samford +7.5Samford @ Kansas

If you are sniffing around looking for potential upsets, this is a game to keep an eye on. Samford is no joke, and they have the right combination of strengths to give Kansas a run for it. The Southern Conference champions play at a breakneck speed, and they will jack a ton of 3s. They are the “new school” of basketball. For Kansas, there are a lot of question marks when it comes to health. Bill Self essentially conceded the Big 12 tournament in an attempt to get healthy. Hunter Dickinson dislocated his shoulder in the regular season finale, but he appears to be on track to play on Thursday. Kevin McCullar, however, is less certain. He is the best player on the team, and he has missed most of the second half of the year. The Jayhawks have very little depth, and while Self insists that he doesn’t need a deep rotation because of the lengthy media timeouts in the tournament, the pace of the Samford offense could be a problem nonetheless, especially playing the game in Salt Lake City. Even with both guys playing, I like Samford to keep this game close.

Why is this matchup good for Samford? The Bulldogs shoot a lot of 3s, and Kansas defends the arc poorly. Samford also plays the game full court, creating a lot of pressure on defense. I don’t expect them to turn over Dajuan Harris and the Kansas guards a lot, but forcing the pace will have an impact. The Bulldogs rebound well, but they aren’t big, and I can’t imagine they will win on the glass against Dickinson and crew. But the glaring weakness for Samford is that they give up a ton of 3s themselves. But—and this is the key for me—Kansas shoots fewer 3s than just about any major team in the nation, so they are not likely to exploit that weakness. Samford is going to try to prove that 3 > 2; if they make enough of them, they will keep this game within the spread, and if they make a bunch of them, they might send the Jayhawks home early.

Samford +7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable to +5.5

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Game Totals Pick
Under 153.5Samford @ Kansas

This game total is tricky. I think the pace of this game will create enough possessions to go over this game total, but I also think that games in the first round are far more likely to go under the total than over. Both teams are in a strange gym, far from home, and in this case, playing at elevation. It will be hard to push this game into the 80s, and if I am playing the game total here, I am taking the under. Another way to attack this game, though, is to play the same game parlay with two alt lines—push the game total up a few points and take the under, and push the spread a little bit higher toward Samford.

Why might this game stay under? For one thing, Samford is not going to get many second shots. They have been a good rebounding team all season, but that was against the Southern Conference, and there is no one that rivals Hunter Dickinson in the SoCon. Kansas should control the glass. Likewise, Kansas is averse to shooting 3s, and their offense instead attacks the rim and takes highly efficient midrange shots. That tends to suppress scoring totals a bit too. If Samford starts burying a ton of 3s early, that might force Kansas to play differently, but I expect Samford to splash enough triples to keep it close, but maybe not enough to force Kansas into a track meet.

Under 153 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number

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$38.18
Chad Hartsock
New Mexico Lobos - NCAAB
New Mexico Lobos - NCAAB
NMEX
Fri Mar 22
truTV
CLEM
Clemson Tigers- NCAAB
Clemson Tigers- NCAAB
Point Spread PickBest Bet
New Mexico -2.0New Mexico @ Clemson

Let’s get right to it: these two teams are seeded wrong. New Mexico is, plain and simple, the better of these two teams, and oddsmakers knew it when they made the 11th-seeded Lobos the favorite over the 6th-seeded Tigers. Clemson enters the tournament as one of the coldest teams in the country, losing 3 of their last 4, including a 19-point loss to a rather hapless Boston College team in the conference tournament. Meanwhile, the Lobos won the competitive Mountain West after listening to prognosticators all year telling them they would miss the tournament otherwise (which is crazy for a team that ranks 23rd, per KenPom). Everyone is going to fuss when the 11 seed busts their bracket, but the Lobos should win this game, and I am happy to back them.

New Mexico does a couple of things really well. First, they play really fast, one of the top 10 fastest teams in the country. They play fast on offense, and their defense applies a lot of pressure and speeds up the opponent. The other thing this team does well is they force a ton of turnovers while valuing the basketball and avoiding turnovers themselves. Finally, the Lobos are the better rebounding team, and that is a stat I really like in the tournament because rebounding travels, and because every possession matters. I love the Lobos in this spot, especially drawing a struggling Clemson team.

New Mexico -2 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number

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Game Totals Pick
Under 151.0New Mexico @ Clemson

I feel like playing the under in this game is the contrarian pick, but I also really like unders in first round tournament games. New gyms, no home court advantage, plus the general pressure of the tournament seem to tighten up the shooters. In this game, there is clearly a path to a high-scoring shootout. That path is the frenetic pace of New Mexico, creating turnovers and shooting quickly, coupled with Clemson shooting well from outside as they try to keep pace. But I am going to go with the contrarian play here.

Neither of these teams has been blowing the top off the scoreboard lately. And despite the fast pace of the Lobos, they do prefer to take most of their shots in the paint or near the rim, which does limit the scoring ceiling somewhat. I expect the Lobos to control this game, but I don’t fully expect a track meet. I am going to cautiously play the under here.

Under 151 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number

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Chad Hartsock
Vermont Catamounts
Vermont Catamounts
VER
Fri Mar 22
CBS
DUK
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils
Point Spread Pick
Duke -11.5Vermont @ Duke

This matchup features the #4 seed Duke Blue Devils against the #13 Vermont Catamounts. Vermont is making its third-straight NCAA Tournament appearance and will be looking to repeat their performance in 2022 when they lost to Arkansas by just four points. Last season, the Catamounts lost by 17 to #2 seed Marquette. This year, Vermont faces a tough matchup with Duke. A big reason why Vermont was able to hang with Arkansas in the 2022 tournament was the fact that Vermont slowed down the tempo and forced Arkansas to execute in the half-court. That season, Arkansas ranked in the 70th percentile in transition offense but just the 48th percentile in half-court offense, per Synergy. The problem in this matchup is that Duke is very comfortable playing in the half-court, as the Blue Devils rank in the 95th percentile in half-court offense.

On the other end of the court, this is not your typical Vermont team that is loaded with three-point shooters. This season, Vermont has connected on just 33.5 percent of their threes, good for 201st in the country. Lastly, Vermont is extremely well-coached and will not beat themselves, but they rarely generate “extra” scoring chances. The Catamounts rank outside the top 300 in offensive rebounding rate and defensive turnover rate. As the less-talented team, finding a way to create extra scoring chances can go a long way into competing, but Vermont does not do that well.

Duke -11.5 available at publishing. Playable to Duke -12.5.

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Game Totals Pick
Under 132.5Vermont @ Duke

The under is the recommended bet in the game totals market in this matchup, primarily due to the presumed tempo of the game. As mentioned in the point spread write-up, Vermont is very likely to try to keep this game in the half-court. The Catamounts rank 349th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric and their most recent two NCAA Tournament games have been played to 63 and 65 possessions. However, it was also noted in the point spread write-up that Duke is very comfortable running half-court offense, but Vermont has a puncher’s chance to somewhat slow down the Blue Devils due to their solid pick-and-roll defense. Per Synergy, Duke ranks in the 99th percentile in pick-and-roll defense. If your pick-and-roll coverage is poor, there is no stopping the Blue Devils. However, Vermont ranks in the 81st percentile in pick-and-roll defense, so it is possible that they are able to somewhat mitigate the strong Blue Devil offense. Vermont is also an excellent defensive rebounding team, as they rank eighth nationally in defensive rebounding rate, per KenPom. If Duke is limited to one shot most of the time, the chances of the under hitting goes up.

Lastly, the Vermont offense is not quite what we are used to seeing from John Becker’s squad. They were the second-best offense in the America East, but just 159th overall according to KenPom. It’s worth mentioning that in Vermont’s other game this season against an ACC foe, the Catamounts managed to score just 51 points against Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech’s defense ranked outside the top 100, while Duke’s ranks 26th.

Under 132.5 available at publishing. Playable to Under 130.5.

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Matt Marquart
James Madison Dukes - NCAAB
James Madison Dukes - NCAAB
JMU
Fri Mar 22
CBS
WIS
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers
Point Spread Pick
James Madison +5.5James Madison @ Wisconsin

As Friday’s slate winds to a close, the Wisconsin Badgers will face the Sun Belt champion Dukes of James Madison University. JMU, located in central Virginia, actually has the shorter trip to Brooklyn, and excitement is running high in Harrisonburg. There is a path to victory for the Dukes in this one, and it is enough for me to take the points with the underdog. We all love to sniff around for the famous 12-5 upset picks, and this one is a live pick for the bracket busters, potentially.

These two teams are very different. Wisconsin is technical and methodical. James Madison is fast and high pressure. The path to victory for JMU is making 3s. The Dukes love to shoot ‘em, they make a lot of them, and the Badgers are bad at defending them. In fact, that is the primary weakness for Wisconsin—they do not defend the arc well. On the other hand, JMU also very much needs to create turnovers to succeed, as they excel when they are scoring in transition. Wisconsin, however, does not turn it over often. It is most likely that the game is decided on those two factors: can JMU force turnovers (or not), and can Wisconsin suppress the 3-point shot (or not)? I do suspect that Wisconsin will come away with the win here, but it might be a narrow one, thus I like laying the points with the underdog.

James Madison +5.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number

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Game Totals Pick
Over 145.0James Madison @ Wisconsin

I like this game to be high scoring. Generally, I like to play unders in the first round tournament games, but I think this number is low enough that we can reach it. JMU plays fast, and Wisconsin is very deliberate with the ball, and the slower pace of the Badgers is likely keeping this number down at a reasonable level. But a look at the Wisconsin schedule shows that their methodical pace does not lead to low scoring games (at least not the way that, say, Virginia or Houston do). Wisconsin is efficient with the ball, and I also like them to be the better rebounding team, leading to some second chance points as well.

I fully expect the Dukes to splash a good number of 3s in this game. The Dukes shoot the 3-ball really well, and Wisconsin struggles to guard it, allowing opponents to shoot over 37% from behind the arc. When I can see a path for both teams to succeed on the offensive end, that says to me we can get this game into the 70s. And as long as the game is close, everyone will keep attacking, and we might even get some help with some late fouls. Let’s play the over in this game as the Dukes try to shoot their way to an upset.

Over 145 available at the time of publishing; playable at that number

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Chad Hartsock

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