Matt Selz
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F1 is back! After nearly a month off, Azerbaijan hosts Formula 1 this weekend with the Baku Grand Prix. One of the more interesting and chaotic race weekends of the year typically, the same is expected this weekend again. The tight lines of the city street course and demands on the cars and drivers usually leads to surprising outcomes. Oh yeah, and they changed the weekend format for this race including a Sprint Race change. A lot to dive into before lights out and away we go!
Baku Grand Prix Track Layout and Betting Strategies
The Azerbaijan circuit is one of the most challenging circuits on the schedule with the tightest part of any race track all year on it. The 3.7-mile layout through the streets of Baku features a long straight and use of full throttle for 62-percent of the lap; fairly low. The 20 turns of the lap will challenge the drivers and cars including the brakes which we’ve already seen teams having trouble with this weekend. Baku is also one of the most chaotic tracks on the schedule. We’ve seen wrecks, safety cars, strategy mishaps, lock-ups, and reliability issues in every race here over the last six years. If practice and qualifying on Friday were any indication of the chaos that can erupt, we’re in for an interesting weekend. In terms of betting here, while the chaos isn’t predicative of anything, it is interesting that the pole-sitter hasn’t landed on the podium in four of the six races here but again that was for a variety of reasons.
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How To Approach The New Sprint Race Format
Typically, Sprint Race weekends have qualifying set the grid for the sprint and then the sprint sets the race grid. That’s no longer the case. Now, qualifying on Friday sets the race grid and the Sprint Race has it’s own qualifying and doesn’t effect the Grand Prix at all. This makes things interesting from a strategy and betting point of view because, while we know the starting grid Friday for Sunday, a wreck in the Sprint Race can still effect a car for the Grand Prix with teams needing to fix the damage. It also means that teams can use the Sprint Race to make further adjustments for the race, despite it being on different tires from practice.
Winner Predictions For F1 Baku Grand Prix
All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Max Verstappen (-250)
Why not? He’s been able to win from anywhere in the grid the last few years including this year as well. In fact, at Azerbaijan for his two wins he’s not been on the pole. He was neck-and-neck with Leclerc in practice and Q2 speeds and has proven to be great in race pace. There’s zero reason to doubt him or Red Bull this weekend, just be happy he’s not further into the negative odds.
Charles Leclerc (+500)
Leclerc is on the pole for a third-straight year in Baku; the last two times haven’t gone well. There is hope here though as Ferrari has had the speed and hasn’t had as much reliability issues this year, just a crash on the opening lap in Australia. Twice in six races here the pole-sitter has won and considering Leclerc has more speed in the straights this week than Verstappen, he could be tough to pass. Plus odds for a pole-sitter is unusual in F1 and at a track that can be tough to pass is nice to see as well.
Carlos Sainz (+4000)
Sainz has been in a weird spot much of the year. Not the top choice for Ferrari but equal speed to Leclerc. Then comes the P3 finish in Australia before getting shifted to P4 for a questionable 5-second penalty. Ferrari has had speed this weekend with both cars in the top-four starting spots. Granted, he’ll have to beat his teammate and both Red Bulls but if things break his way this bet is a nice return. Not that we’re rooting for chaos but it’d be nice to be a recipient of some right?
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Best Prop Bets for F1 Azerbaijan GP
Carlos Sainz podium finish (+250)
This is a bit of a risk as he’s yet to land on the podium this year, though technically doing so in Australia nearly a month ago. That was before his 5-second time penalty was added. He ran P4 in practice and qualified P4 for the race which should give him a great shot to move up one spot on a circuit like this. If Ferrari can just have a clean weekend…
Max Verstappen fastest lap (+120)
If Verstappen is winning, he’ll likely have set the fastest lap, as he did in practice. If he’s not going to win he’ll take tires and go set the fastest lap to get an extra point for the standings. Either way we’re banking on the fastest driver all year to go out and run the fastest lap on a track he’s won twice before. Oh and we’re getting plus money? Check.
Aston Martin double top-6 finish (+275)
They’ve already done this twice in three races this year. The speed in the Aston Martins is there again this weekend through practice and qualifying as they’re both starting in the top-9 in the grid. Starting in those spots should give them a shot at capitalizing on strategy and others mistakes to nab a third double top-6 this year.
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