MLB Picks

Max Scherzer will toe the rubber for the Nationals in this one as they look to bounce back from their 11-6 loss to the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Patrick Corbin was about as bad as it gets on the mound in the series-opener, and with him only making it through two innings, the Washington bullpen was heavily used for seven innings. Because of that, the Nats will look for Scherzer to eat up some innings, and they should be confident in his ability to do so. The veteran right-hander has 14 strikeouts and just one walk in 12.0 innings of work so far this year, and he has been able to have a ton of success against his former team. In nine starts against the D-Backs in his career, Scherzer is 7-0 with a 2.85 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, and has 85 strikeouts in 60.0 innings.

Taylor Widener takes the ball for the D-Backs, and he has just 31.0 career big league innings under his belt. He has some good stuff, but there is just not enough there yet to suggest he can go toe-to-toe with a guy of Scherzer’s caliber. Offensively for Arizona, they pushed across 11 runs on Thursday, but a big part of that was Corbin walking four and hitting two batters in the first two innings. The D-Backs are hitting .209 on the road compared to .257 at home, and Scherzer should give their bats some problems.

Take the Nats.

The game last night featured 17 total runs—14 of which were scored in the first two innings. It simply was not Corbin’s night, and he did not make Arizona work too hard for the 10 runs they got off of him. In fact, after Corbin left the game, Arizona managed just two hits in the seven innings worked by the Washington bullpen. The D-Backs surely enjoyed that offensive outburst, but now they have to face Scherzer. He is one of the best in the game, and the D-Backs have generally been worse at the plate when on the road. Widener may not have much big league experience, but he has shown promise. He has allowed just three runs in 11.0 innings this year, and his first two starts were against two of the better offenses in baseball (Padres and Reds). He more than held his own, and he has shown he can handle tough opponents. Consider the under in this one.

The Yankees don’t have a regular starting pitcher on scheduled rest to go Friday, so they’re starting reliever Nick Nelson as an opener before moving to Michael King for the bulk of the innings. King pitched well in his only appearance of the year, a similar type relief outing, but was unreliable for the Yankees in 2020, the first season of his career in which he saw significant Major League action. King threw 26.2 innings between starts and relief and finished with an ERA close to eight. He made his first big-league start against these same Rays and took the loss, failing to find the strike zone throughout his 3.2 innings in that game.

While King’s control improved throughout the rest of the season, he also became more hittable. His counterpart, Rays starter Michael Wacha, is also one of the more hittable pitchers in the game, but Wacha, a veteran, is capable of pitching deeper into games, and also has the Rays’ bullpen, a unit that almost singlehandedly led them to the World Series last year, behind him. The Rays’ lineup should get to King throughout his innings of relief, and if Wacha can prove stronger than the short outfield porches in Yankee Stadium and keep the ball in the ballpark, the Rays as an underdog are a good bet.

As batting average continues to go down across the league year after year, batting average against Wacha is going in the opposite direction. The right-hander, who held opponents to a .219 mark in his rookie season eight years ago, now sees a total almost 100 points higher next to his name. The Yankees’ lineup is built for their stadium, so expect to see a long ball or two before Wacha departs for the night. New York’s big question is their pitching situation – they’re relying on two guys (Nelson hasn’t pitched well this year) with little experience to quiet a lineup that consistently beat their own last year. It’s hard to see that happening. Take the over.

On Friday night, Logan Allen will take the hill for the Cleveland Indians against Jeff Hoffman for the Cincinnati Reds. Allen has allowed only three earned runs across 10.0 innings of work to begin the year, but there is reason to believe that his luck will run out soon. Underneath the strong surface-level numbers, Allen has posted an uninspiring 19.5 strikeout percentage and a 12.2 walk percentage. His 2.70 ERA in 2021 has been supported by an abnormally-low .231 BABIP and an unsustainable 86.2 left-on-base percentage. Expect the Reds offense to make life difficult for Allen in this one.

Last November, Cincinnati completed an under-the-radar trade for Hoffman with the hope that he could be a solid fifth starter for them. After years of struggling in Colorado, the adjustments that he has made in his short tenure with the Reds appear to be paying dividends. In his first start of the year against the St. Louis Cardinals, he lasted 5.0 innings while surrendering only a single run on three hits while striking out six batters. In his second start of the season he was pitching strong into the fifth inning before he allowed a couple of baserunners, which the bullpen ultimately let cross the plate but were attributed to Hoffman’s final line. Cleveland’s offense has once again been atrocious to start the campaign–notably being no-hit by Carlos Rodon earlier this week. Hoffman should be able to put together five strong innings of work before handing things off to a capable Cincinnati bullpen. Back the Reds with confidence.

Yesterday, Cleveland scored for the first time in the sixth inning. Prior to that, the only two runs that they had scored in the previous 27 innings came in the 10th inning of Tuesday’s game when they had the benefit of starting the inning with a man on second base. This week, the Indians have scored a total of nine runs on only 18 hits in 37 innings. It does not matter who the opposing pitcher is right now–Cleveland is an offense to fade. Hoffman is far from elite, but if he can get through the first five innings and limit the damage, the Reds’ bullpen is capable of holding the Tribe scoreless in the final few frames. Take the under here.

After a nine-game winning streak, the Red Sox finally lost to the Twins in the final game of the series. The Red Sox have been nothing short of fantastic to start this season and look to continue their luck in the south side of Chicago. They send Nick Pivetta to the mound, who has been impressive in his first couple of Red Sox starts. Pivetta relies on his fastball to set up the at-bat and then uses his slider and occasional curveball for the punch out. He comes in with a 2-0 record and a 3.27 ERA, but seven walks. The offense behind him ranks 1st in runs and hits this season and has three starters batting above .300 this season. 

The White Sox will start Dylan Cease, who has pitched twice this season but has come out with the no decision twice. He has a 3.86 ERA and a 4.53 FIP and the White Sox have lost both of his starts. The White Sox offense has been underperforming, averaging just .233 as a team which ranks 14th in the league and 24th in slugging. The Red Sox are 6-2 against right-handed pitching this year while the White Sox prefer left-handed pitchers as they are just 3-6 against righties. The Red Sox have all the momentum coming into this game and have the better offense. As long as Pivetta limits the free passes, Boston should win the series opener.

These offenses have been pretty good this season, especially the Red Sox. This season the Red Sox have scored at least three runs in every game and have been explosive offensively. These teams rank first and fifth in runs this season as well as fourth and sixth in OBP.  Both of these teams have pitchers who struggle with control at times and allow a decent amount of free passes. The White Sox have scored in the first inning the last two games and start very hot. The Red Sox have the potential to explode offensively in each inning they play. With these two good offenses, take the over in Boston.

San Francisco has been a great positive surprise this season. At 8-4, they are actually hanging in there with Los Angeles and San Diego in the NL West. It does not feel sustainable with an offense that is barely scoring and pitching that has been among the best in the league. The offense is unlikely to improve, and the pitching, especially the bullpen seems bound to regress. Reliever Jake McGee has been a nice story as their nearly unhittable closer. 

Miami has a similar profile to San Francisco but they are not having as much success. They lost yesterday, just missing out on a sweep of the Braves, but prior to that it had been rough. Outfielder Adam Duvall is the only real power threat in the lineup. He has four homers on the season and they are hoping they can get some guys on base for when he connects. 

Anthony DeScalafani never found his form with the Reds but so far so good with San Francisco. He has pitched really well, but eventually, he is going to fade. This lineup looks like one he can tame, though. Miami has had early injuries on the staff so they are going with Daniel Castano. He made six starts last season but still qualifies as a rookie this year. His numbers were okay last year but there is a reason the Marlins had other guys slotted ahead of him. SF will eventually fade but the matchup in this series opener looks good. DeScalafani should be playable for this one. Take the Giants.

The Giants have played 12 games this season and the total has gone over just three times. Miami is just a little better with five overs in 11 games. Neither of these teams scores that much, nor do they have the kind of lineups where you would expect an offensive explosion. Maybe when the Giants are at Coors Field or something but most days they are hoping to just cobble together enough runs to win the game.  With the Giants projected to win, look for this to be a low-scoring affair, it probably finished 4-3 one way or the other. That total gives more than enough room to cash the under. Take the under.

The Rangers just took the series from the Rays pretty easily and are now on a three-game winning streak. During the final three games of the series, the Rangers offense looked strong, scoring five, six, and eight runs while their pitching allowed fewer than four runs in each game of the series. When looking at the stats, the Rangers’ offense is far better than the Orioles’ right now. They rank higher than the Orioles in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, OBP, and slugging percentage this season. They send Mike Foltynewicz to the mound, who had a poor first start against the Blue Jays, but a great second start against the Padres. Foltynewicz had much better control of his sinker and slider in his second start which are his go-to strikeout pitches. The only worry about Foltynewicz is keeping the ball in the park because he has allowed three home runs in his two starts this season.

The Orioles are slumping. They have now lost six of their last seven including three games to the Mariners who aren’t exactly a powerhouse team. In their first game of the double-header yesterday, the Orioles scored two runs in the first inning and then did not record a hit for the rest of the game. They had only one baserunner from the second inning on, which was a walk. This sums up the Orioles’ season because they rank 27th in OBP and struggle to get any runners in scoring position. They have Jorge Lopez on the mound who has had two very poor starts and now has an ERA of 11.42 and an ERA+ of just 39. With the Rangers’ offense hot, they should be able to take on Lopez early. Take the Rangers.

One of these offenses is hot and the other is not. This matchup comes down to pitching and it’s hard to look at the under with Lopez on the mound since he has really struggled in his first two starts this season. Foltynewicz has the tendency to allow home runs, as he has in both starts this season. Trey Mancini is finally starting to find his rhythm this season and hit a home run in the first inning of yesterday’s game against the Mariners. The Orioles will likely give up at least five runs to the Rangers and the Orioles are still competent enough to score a couple runs to push this total over. Take the over in Texas.

Milwaukee opens up their season series with projected NL Central bottom-feeder Pittsburgh on Friday night inside American Family Field. Adrian Houser gets the ball for Milwaukee opposite JT Brubaker for the Pirates. Houser and the Brewers are the recommended side in this matchup as they have the starting pitching edge, bullpen edge, and offensive edge over Pittsburgh. Milwaukee enters the contest as winners in six of its last eight ball games and the Brewers have been clicking on all cylinders to start 2021. Milwaukee’s consistent starting pitching has been the main reason for their early-season success, and they will hope Friday night starter Adrian Houser can keeps it rolling.

In Houser’s first two starts, he has pitched a combined ten innings, allowing ten hits and three runs. Houser may have been a bit fortunate to start 2021 as his FIP (4.84) is three runs higher than his current ERA (1.80). He has been doing a solid job of keeping the ball on the ground, yielding a 67.9% GB rate. Expect Houser to provide Milwaukee with five or six innings of work, potentially limiting Pittsburgh to three or fewer runs. JT Brubaker has profiled similarly to Houser as he’s pitched 9.1 innings allowing seven hits and two runs through two starts. Brubaker’s ERA (1.93) is much lower than his FIP (4.64), possibly suggesting he’s been a bit fortunate. While Brubaker and Houser have the ability to neutralize each other, the back end of the Brewers bullpen can keep Pittsburgh at bay in the later innings. Take Milwaukee to win by multiple runs.

The over is the recommendation in this matchup as both offenses are capable of scratching together a few runs off their opposing starters. Houser is not an overpowering pitcher as he sports a reasonably low 6.30 K:9 rate coupled with a high 5.40 BB:9 rate. With a high percentage of balls put in play by the Pittsburgh offense, the Pirates may score three or more runs during Houser’s start. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 11th in team batting average (.240) and tenth in on-base percentage (.329) through 13 games. Milwaukee’s offense has begun to turn a corner as they’ve been seeing the ball well. Back the over in a game where both offenses could score five or more runs.

In his first two starts with Toronto, Steven Matz has looked like the pitcher the Mets always hoped he would turn out to be for them. Matz has given up just two runs in 12.1 innings, lasting six or more innings in each of his starts and winning both of them. After a 2020 to forget, Matz looks like his head is in a better place with a fresh start in a new organization; if he can keep the ball in the ballpark, which was his biggest issue the last two years, the lefty could become one of the top starting pitchers in the American League.

Mike Minor, like Matz, had the worst season of his career in 2020; unlike Matz, he hasn’t completely turned the tide in 2021. Minor has been respectable through his first two starts of the year for Kansas City but nowhere near dominant, giving up five runs (and five walks) through 10.0 innings. Now 33 years old, his best days are definitely behind him and a Blue Jays lineup that followed up a 15-run effort against the Angels with a series win over the Yankees might just be too tall an effort for Minor at this stage in his career. Look for Matz to keep pitching well and take Toronto to get the win on Friday.

Matz has been good so far, and you can probably count on him to keep being pretty good, but this is a guy who just a year ago finished with an ERA of 9.68 in his six starts with the Mets. Matz allowed an unbelievable 14 home runs in only 30.2 innings pitched, a problem that worsened throughout his years in New York. While the start to his Blue Jays career has been encouraging, it’s hard to imagine that those recent days are completely behind him. On the other side, Minor is also coming off a poor year and he’s at an age when it’s hard to imagine things will get better from this point. Plus, he’s facing a tough Toronto lineup. Look for the over to hit in this one.

Two lefties will toe the rubber in this series-opening game when Lewis Thorpe of the Twins goes up against Andrew Heaney of the Angels. The Twins are built to hit against lefties, and they rank fifth in the league in battling average against lefties this season (.287). The Angels are hitting a moderate .236 against lefties, and they are 0-3 in 2021 when they face a left-handed starter.

However, if Los Angeles is going to pickup their first win against a left-handed starter, this matchup against Minnesota seems to be favorable. Thorpe is making just his fourth-career start, and his first of this season. He has mostly been a bullpen guy, and he has a career ERA of 6.17 and a WHIP of 1.82. The Angels are off to a great start offensively, as they are averaging nine hits per game and have the sixth-best OPS (.742) in the league. They also have to be excited to play in front of their home fans again after a six-game road trip that ended with back-to-back losses to the Royals. Los Angeles should be motivated to get back into the win column, and going up against an inexperienced starting pitcher certainly bodes well for them. Take LA.

The Angels have not been nearly as good against lefties as the Twins, but they still have a dangerous lineup that will be sure to take advantage of any mistakes made by the inexperienced starter they will be facing. In addition, Minnesota’s bullpen has been iffy at best. Offensively, the Twins love hitting left-handers, and they have actually been a better offensive team on the road this year than at home. They are averaging 6.0 runs per game on the road this season, as compared to 4.0 at home. The Angels have a staff ERA in the bottom-third of the league, and the Twins are more than capable of having a good day at the plate. Take the over.

Detroit began this series with a team ERA over 5.  It is going to be hard to maintain a competitive record with pitching like that. They are going to need a lot from rookie OF Akil Baddooo to hit enough to cover for those arms, and catcher Wilson Ramos is not going to be a season-long source of power, even though he has six homers already. He hit five all of last year and has a career-high of just 22. The Tigers need to get better pitching and hope the bats are good enough. 

Oakland starts this series with a league-worst ERA of 6.00. Unlike the Tigers, though they have arms with track records that tell us they can be a lot better than that. The hitting has struggled too, but is way better than the pitching, ranking 23rd in runs per game. It is nice to see the “Return of the Jedi”, Jed Lowrie, but they need their big bats to be better. If Lowrie is still leading the team in RBIs at the end of the month they will be in trouble. 

If Detroit was going to outperform expectations this season it was going to be because they found a pitcher or two. Jose Urena has not been one of them, through a couple of performances he is sporting an ERA over 8 and a strikeout to walk ratio of 1:1. That is a hard guy to get behind. Frankie Montas has not done much better for Oakland but at least his ceiling is higher. A couple of years ago he was looking like the future of the staff. If both regress to their means the A’s will be quite happy. Fading Urena looks a must. Take Oakland.

With both of these teams having had poor pitching to date it is a bit of a surprise that the number is not higher. Oakland definitely plays in a pitcher’s park but that favours better pitching more so than all pitching, especially all the foul territory. I am leaning to the over here, primarily as a fade of Urena. If Oakland can get its power bats going they could have a fun time against Detroit all weekend. Montas should improve as the season progresses but don’t expect him to be a world-beater in this spot. Oakland won 8-4 to kick off the series last night. A similar result can be expected.  Take the over.

San Diego and Los Angeles will begin their highly anticipated season series on Friday night at Petco Park. The Dodgers enter as winners of their last six games, and they are looking like a juggernaut. Walker Buehler will make his third start of 2021. Buehler’s first two starts have been dominant as he sports a 8:0 K:BB ratio and 1.50 ERA in 12 innings. San Diego’s offense is certainly a step up from Buehler’s first two opponents (Colorado, Washington). Still, even so Buehler is capable of limiting San Diego’s offensive production for around five or six innings of work.

While it may seem enticing to want to play the home underdog, Buehler and the Dodgers are the recommended side in this matchup. Los Angeles has a reliable offense, dependable starting and relief pitching, and elite defense that makes them highly lethal over the course of 162 games. There will be times to fade the Dodgers, but this doesn’t seem like one of them. Ryan Weathers gets the ball opposite Buehler. Weather’s will attempt to quiet the Dodger bats at least once through the order, allowing his bullpen to keep the game close in what figures to be a bullpen game for San Diego. Friday will be Weathers’ first start as he’s made three relief appearances to begin the season. It’s uncertain how long he will be on the mound, putting his bullpen in a tough spot against the best offense in baseball. Take LA -1.5.

The over is the recommendation in this matchup as the Dodgers can score six-plus runs themselves. If Weathers is treated as an opener, a lot of pressure is put on the Padres bullpen to keep the LA offense at bay. Los Angeles currently ranks number one in batting average (.285) as a team through 13 games. The Dodgers can string together consecutive base hits while being home-run threats at the same time. Buehler is still susceptible to allowing a couple of runs against San Diego’s upper-echelon offense. Back the over in a game where San Diego will likely utilize multiple pitchers to get 27 outs against the top offense in baseball.

The Astros have been hurt by COVID-19 contact tracing recently. They will be without Jose Altuve, Martin Maldonado, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez for the next couple games. In their first game without these four players, the Astros lost to the Tigers 6-4 and lacked the offensive spark. Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel were forced to carry the load for the Astros and they still did well, each going 2-5 and leading the offense. They have Jose Urquidy on the mound who has been subpar to start the season. He has a 5.23 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and the Astros have won one of his two starts this season. Even without the stars in their lineup, the Astros still have a good team and this is one of the best prices you’ll find them at all season in a matchup like this.

On the mound for the Mariners is Yusei Kikuchi who has pitched decently well this season. In his two starts this season, Kikuchi has a 3.75 ERA in 12 innings while also striking out nine. The Mariners just took the series from the Orioles in Baltimore, but the Orioles did not play well. They scored one, two, and three runs in their three losses to the Mariners and looked flat offensively. Although the Mariners have been playing well recently, the Astros are still the better team and they are 6-0 ATS on the road. Back the road team in Seattle.

These teams have been in some high-scoring affairs recently. When the Mariners play at home, the over is 4-2. When the Astros play on the road, the over is 5-1. In both of Urquidy’s starts this season, the total has gone over and the teams have combined for 10 and 11 runs. They now play in a hitter-friendly park in Seattle and they should be able to hit this low total if both teams’ offenses play like they have recently. Although Kikuchi has been playing well this season, he is still a threat to give up the long ball at any point. The Astros rank third in home runs this season and have a lineup of nine guys who have the potential to go yard. Back these offenses to go over the total in Seattle.

The Cardinals are off to a solid start. On offense, they are in the Top Ten scoring-wise, but that might be a little lucky when you look at their OPS and homer rates. The pitching has not been great but that might normalize when they have more games under their belt. Early rough outings can he hard work our from under when there is such a small sample size 

Philadelphia played the Mets to start the week and their strong pitching really shut them down. SS Didi Gregorius and C JT Realmuto are off to great starts but the rest of the team has faded fast. Sadly, OF Andrew McCutcheon just might be done at this point. He has looked bad. Philly is looking to rebound at home this weekend. A few bombs from Bryce Harper might calm the home crowd. 

Last season Kwan Hyun Kim was great. It was his first year in MLB and he posted an ERA under 2 which is why the Cardinals are thrilled that he can make his first start of the season, finally. His start was delayed by a back issue and that has to be concerning but they say he is ready to go. Matt Moore did not pitch in the Majors last season and through his first couple of outings you can see why. The only positive is that he not usually been this bad, so maybe there is some positive regression there. That is what the Phillies are counting on. Neither of these pitchers’ situations is that appealing so I am going to side with Phillies and Moore. At least with him, they are less likley to tax the bullpen and there is a better payoff. 

Take Philadephia.

This total seems too low given that we have one pitcher who has been hit hard and another who missed the start of the season with back trouble. For different reasons, they might both be gone by the third inning. I think both bats will be able to put some runs on the board in this one and even if it just one of them that might be enough. I can easily see this one going 6-4 or 6-3 to one side of the other. There are lots of powerful bats on both sides and I especially like righties such as Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt going yard against Moore.

Take the Over.