MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Minnesota Twins have an afternoon tee time on Saturday, following a Twins victory on Friday night. Friday was a Skenes day, but he gave up 2 runs in only 5 innings of work, and that’s just too many for the Pirates to be expected to win. It’s just silly at this point. The loss was the 7th in a row for Pittsburgh, which followed one of the best 6-day stretches in recent history. The Pirates have to win again at some point, and they will almost certainly be plus money when they do; I’m betting it happens today. Give me the Pirates on the money line to end the losing streak.

We have two young arms on the mound to start. Pittsburgh will use Mike Burrows, a hard-throwing rookie who has been effective. He’s only going to give you about 5 innings as they manage his pitch count, but his innings are usually good ones. Minnesota will use Travis Adams. Adams has made one appearance, and it was a bulk relief appearance in which he gave up 5 runs on 9 hits and only one strikeout against the Rays. This looks like an opportunity for the Pirates. I’m sure they will squander it somehow—and they have lots of tools in the toolbox for that—but I am going to live on the wild side and see if they can end their current week-long losing streak.

Pirates vs Twins Prediction: Pirates ML (+115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Atlanta Braves are set to square off against the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday afternoon in what should be an exciting matchup. The Cardinals will give struggling starter Erick Fedde another chance to get his season back on track this afternoon, but it’s not going to be easy. On the season, Fedde holds a 3-9 record with a 4.79 ERA. In his last three starts, he’s 0-3 with a 15.30 ERA. 

The Braves have yet to name a starter for today’s game, but they’re expected to lean on their bullpen to get through this one. Atlanta’s bullpen has been reliable this season with a 3.48 ERA, though it’s been heavily utilized over the past few games – which could make things a little tighter than they’d like this afternoon. Offensively, both teams have cooled off. The Braves are averaging 3.8 runs per game over their last 12, which happens to be the same as the Cardinals over that same span. At the end of the day, there’s no reason why I think Fedde will rebound in this matchup against the Braves. It’s a must win for Fedde, but I think the Braves will find a way to get to him early on in this one, making Atlanta money line my best bet of the day. 

Braves vs Cardinals prediction: Braves ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Shohei Ohtani will take the mound Saturday afternoon as the Dodgers look to rebound from last night’s loss to the Giants and snap their seven-game losing streak. Ohtani continues to be on a limited pitch count, but he’s been effective so far this season – allowing just one earned run over six innings across six starts. While it’s possible he makes it into the third inning today, the Giants are still going to have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of this Dodgers bullpen that has struggled all season, posting a 4.42 ERA.

Taking the mound for the Giants is Landen Roupp, who enters this matchup with a 6-5 record and a 3.39 ERA. This Giants team isn’t known for piling on runs, averaging just 3.7 runs per game over their last 14 – nearly identical to the Dodgers, who are averaging 3.8 runs per game over their last 13. The real strength for the Giants lies in their pitching, and that shows as they lead the league with a 3.16 bullpen ERA. The Dodgers are hoping to snap their losing streak and prevent the Giants from gaining more ground in the NL West – but I don’t see that happening today. Roupp has been terrific on the mound for the Giants, and with Ohtani’s time on the mound being limited, the Dodgers will have to lean on their shaky bullpen. Look for San Francisco to take advantage of a weak Dodgers bullpen and move another game higher in the NL West standings, making them my best bet of the day. 

Dodgers vs Giants prediction: Giants ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Orioles are playing some of their best baseball of the season, winning six of their last seven as they aim for their fourth straight victory Saturday afternoon against the Miami Marlins. Taking the mound for the Marlins is Janson Junk, who enters the matchup with a 3-1 record and a 3.12 ERA. Junk is coming off his best outing of the year, allowing just one hit and one run in six innings pitched against the Reds. 

For the Orioles, the left-hander Trevor Rogers will get the start. Rogers is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA this season, and has only pitched at home once in his five starts, where he pitched eight scoreless innings against the Rangers. Over their last 13 games, the Orioles are averaging 5.9 runs per game compared to the Marlins 4.4 runs per game over their last 14. There isn’t a stark difference between these two teams in terms of offense, but the Marlins have cooled slightly whereas the Orioles have started to heat up. With the Orioles playing better baseball right now, and with Rogers taking the mound, they’ll be in a great position to grab another win. Look for the Orioles to stay hot, making them my best bet of the day. 

Marlins vs Orioles prediction: Orioles ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Saturday’s matchup between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox is not my favorite game on the loaded slate, but I do lean slightly towards a Guardians win in this spot. Tanner Bibee has had somewhat of a rollercoaster season, but he is my preferred starter in this matchup. Sean Burke began the season well for the White Sox, but his last start resulted in 3 home runs and 6 earned runs against the Blue Jays. While he is capable of providing a solid start like he did the outing before against the Dodgers, Burke’s inconsistency makes him hard to back when the White Sox lineup is the one providing run support for him.

Bibee has his own inconsistencies, but I have seen him lead a pitching staff before and I expect his post all-star performance to be much improved from what we’ve seen so far. The White Sox lineup is not one that strikes fear in many opposing starters, and if Bibee can fill the strike zone with pitches early in counts I think he can cruise in this spot.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox prediction: Guardians ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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Yesterday’s contest between the Rockies and Reds was a low-scoring affair that ended in a 3-2 Colorado victory. Saturday’s matchup could produce a more high-scoring game. The pitching matchup in this one pits Colorado’s Bradley Blalock against Cincinnati’s Brady Singer. The 24-year-old Blalock is still finding his footing at the big league level, and will be making his fourth start of the season. His 12.94 ERA and 2.06 WHIP leave a lot to be desired, and it would be a bit surprising to see him give the Rockies length in this one. He’s thrown more than 4 innings just once this season, and the bullpen behind him ranks 26th in the league with a 4.86 ERA. Look for the Reds to do some damage at the plate.

On the other side, Singer owns a 4.32 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 18 starts and 93.2 innings this season. He isn’t going to blow hitters away, and his K/BB ratio of 2.1 is the lowest of his career. He tends to pitch to contact, which can be considered somewhat risky when pitching on a hot summer day at Great American Ball Park. All in all, both offenses could be in for big days. Even with a high total, look to the over.

Rockies vs Reds prediction: Over 10.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

The New York Mets and Kansas City Royals play the second game of their weekend series on Saturday afternoon. The Mets took Friday’s game with 7 runs in the final 2 frames after trailing the whole way. I look for that momentum to carry over on Saturday. The Mets have been bad on the road, and that is a factor here, but they are still the better team. My Mets vs Royals prediction is the Mets on the Money Line.

This is a tough spot to back the Mets, admittedly. Frankie Montas has been awful since returning to the club. He has made 3 starts, and he has given up 10 runs in the last 2 of those. He gave up 6 runs to the lowly Pirates, but still won. The Royals are the 2^nd-lowest scoring team in the league though (ahead of the Pirates, ironically), so if Montas is going to have success, this is the day. On the other side is Michael Lorenzen, a mediocre guy whose game log is all over the place, so it is anybody’s guess what he will give you one day to the next. What we do know here is that the Mets have the superior offense, and they should be able to outslug the sluggish Royals, sooner or later. I’ll take the Mets.

Mets vs Royals Prediction: Mets ML (-130) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Rays are in a brutal stretch of their schedule right now. On Saturday, Kevin Cash’s squad will be playing their ninth game of a 10-game road trip, and will have played 14 of their last 17 games on the road. They are struggling on their current road trip, as they are just 2-6 thus far. Things won’t get any easier for the Rays as they go up against a Red Sox team that has caught fire. Boston won the first game of this series by a score of 5-4 on Friday night, and is now riding an 8-game win streak. They’ve also won 11 of their last 13 games dating back to June 28.

Boston will send Garrett Crochet to the mound, which spells bad news for Tampa Bay. Crochet owns a 2.39 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through 19 starts and 120.1 innings this season. He struggled in his last home outing on June 30 against the Reds, so he will be looking to bounce back in front of his home fans at Fenway Park. The Rays haven’t hit lefties particularly well, so Crochet could be in a solid position to put together a strong outing. Take confidence fading the Rays and backing the Red Sox -1.5.

Rays vs Red Sox prediction: Red Sox -1.5 (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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The Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers continue their weekend series on Saturday afternoon following an 8-3 victory by the Brewers on Friday. The Brewers are running hot right now, pushing their winning streak to 5 games that included a sweep of the Dodgers. The Nationals are heading the other way, losers of 5 of their last 6. It is hard to imagine those fortunes change on Saturday, and the books know it, having the Brewers juiced to the point that you almost can’t play it. For that reason, I am pivoting to the game total and taking the over at 8.5.

The Nats will throw Shinnosuke Ogasawara. He has made one appearance for Washington, and he got blasted in less than 3 innings of work. There’s not a lot of reason to expect better results on Saturday; it’s just that he is about the only option the Nats have left right now until they master cloning technology and make a few more of MacKenzie Gore. The Brewers will throw Brandon Woodruff, who had a fantastic start in his return from a year-long absence. I don’t really expect him to do that every outing though, and the Nats can stack up lefty bats against him. The offense isn’t the problem most nights for Washington, and I am hoping they can plate a few on Saturday. In the end, their bullpen will likely have to cover a lot of innings, and their bullpen is dreadful. That should put us over the top.

Nationals vs Brewers Prediction: Over 8.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Yu Darvish is slated to make his second start of the season on Saturday night as the Padres host the Phillies. Darvish allowed 2 earned runs on 3 hits over 3.2 innings in his first start of the season on July 7 against the Diamondbacks. He walked 3, but now that he has a start under his belt on the season, he could be in line for a better performance in this one. The Phillies’ offense hasn’t been as strong on the road as they’ve been at home, as their team OPS drops from .783 at home to .691 on the road. They will also be playing their fifth game of a six-game west coast road trip.

On the other side, Zack Wheeler has been among the best pitchers in baseball so far this season. He owns a 2.17 ERA through 18 starts and 116 innings, and posted an ERA of 0.58 across 5 June starts. He started July by tossing a complete game one-hitter against the Reds last week. Needless to say, Wheeler is in a groove on the mound right now. This has the makings of a decent pitchers duel, which makes the first 5 under the play.

Phillies vs Padres prediction: First 5 Under 4 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Today, we are set to see a great game between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros. This should be a fantastic pitching duel between Jacob deGrom of the Rangers and Framber Valdez of the Astros. The veteran deGrom is having a great year with a 9-2 record and a 2.29 ERA. It is interesting that he has given up 2 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. While 2 runs is not a lot, it was against the likes of the Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Chicago White Sox. These are 4 teams that are not hitting the ball well this year. This means that he may be up against a tall task today with an Astros team that is batting .260 on the year (tied for 1st in MLB). For the Astros, Valdez is also pitching well with a 10-4 record and a 2.90 ERA. Valdez has had 2 scoreless outings in his last 3 starts. Additionally, in Houston this year he has a 1.95 ERA only giving up 13 earned runs in 60 total innings.

Overall, the pitching matchup in this one looks to be fantastic. Where the questions come in for me is with the Rangers hitting. On the year, they rank 24th in batting average, 24th in hits, and 23rd in runs scored. This team hit the ball last night, but I fear that they will struggle against Valdez. The Astros have also won the game in Valdez’ last 11 starts. The Astros are tough to beat at home as they have a record of 32-18 in Houston. All in all, I suspect that deGrom will give up a couple of runs as the Astros hit the ball better than his recent competition, and Valdez will dominate the mound against a struggling Rangers lineup. I am taking the Astros to get the win.

Rangers vs. Astros Prediction: Astros ML (-125) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Los Angeles Angels in a matchup that consists of two of the most profitable teams on the over this season. Both squads games are going over the total roughly 54% of the time and this matchup will see two starting pitchers in shaky form taking the bump. Zac Gallen (5.15 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) has been inconsistent all season, falling in the 3rd percentile in pitching run value with the highest ERA of his career by far over a large sample size. The Angels offense has been solid as of late, ranking 10th in wRC+ over the last 14 days.

As for L.A. starter Yusei Kikuchi (3.02 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), he’s currently posting a 5.06 ERA in July compared to a solid 2.25 mark in June. The Diamondbacks have been quite formidable against lefties, ranking top-10 in wRC+ against LHP this season. Furthermore, this matchup consists of 2 of the bottom 4 bullpens in MLB in terms of combined ERA, so I’ll be going with the over in this spot.

Diamondbacks vs Angels prediction: Over 8.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The red-hot Toronto Blue Jays look to keep up their good offensive work against the struggling Athletics. On Friday, the Jays got back on track with a wild 7-6 victory, winning for the 11th time in the past 12 games. It has been nerve-wracking betting the Jays, as while Toronto has been hot, the past two games, and five of the past seven, have been decided by a single run. We’re not terribly concerned about the side, however, especially since veteran RHP Kevin Gausman is on the bump, and he has been rather hittable. He allows a lot of hard contact, and that’s bad news at the dinky home park of the A’s.

Instead, let’s look to the Over, which cashed Friday night. Gausman will not get shelled by this impotent A’s offense, but he could get peppered a little. On the flip side, LHP Jacob Lopez has to try and put out several fires, as Toronto has a multitude of players putting up All-Star caliber offense lately. Toronto has scored six or more runs in three of the past four games, and four or more runs in 10 of the 12 games during the solid 11-1 run since June 29. Let’s go Over, as the southpaw Lopez will have a hard time containing this Jays powerhouse at the minor-league venue.

Over 10.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

It’s time for Saturday baseball and we have your Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees prediction right here! Things didn’t go as planned for the Cubs in Game One in the Bronx as they got crushed by the Yankees 10-0. On Saturday, the Cubs look to rebound in hopes to end their first half of the season on a high note. Taking the mound for the Yankees will be the left-hander Max Fried who enters this matchup with a 11-2 record and a 2.27 ERA. For the Cubs, Matthew Boyd will get the nod who is 9-3 on the season with a 2.52 ERA. 

Both starting pitchers have been great in the first half of the season, but what really stands out to me as of late is how the Yankees are playing right now compared to the Cubs. The Yankees are averaging eight runs per game over their last six, compared to the Cubs 4.7. In terms of pitching, the Yankees have the upper hand with Fried on the mound, but their bullpen has struggled as of late. They have a 5.08 bullpen ERA in their last seven games, which happens to be better than the Cubs 5.25 ERA. At the end of the day, the Yankees’ offense has been nearly lights out, and with Max Fried on the mound, I think he can go the distance to put his team in a position to pick up an early series win, making the Yankees my best bet of the day. 

Cubs vs Yankees prediction: Yankees ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I favor the under on the posted game total in Saturday’s matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers. George Kirby and Casey Mize are both starting pitchers I am fond of, and I expect them to both perform well today in a pitcher-friendly park. Kirby is the starter I am less confident in today, as his start to the year was postponed due to injury and he is still finding his footing. Strikeout production had not been there for him very much outside of his explosive outing against the Angels, but Kirby did register 9 Ks against the Pirates in his last start. That outing resulted in 6.1 innings of scoreless ball after back-to-back 6-inning, 1-run performances.

Mize has been strong all season long for the Tigers rotation, providing them with a 2.63 ERA across his first 85.2 innings pitched. This includes a 7-inning start against Cleveland in his last start where he held the opposition scoreless. Mize has allowed no more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 6 starts and no more than 3 in any of his last 9. Seattle and Detroit are both competent offensively, but both teams also have strong bullpens behind these talented starters, and I lean towards the under in this game as a result.

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers prediction: Under 7.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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