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Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Wed Jul 28

Money Line Pick

Wednesday’s matinee between the Astros and Mariners will certainly have an interesting dynamic to it after what went down prior to gametime on Tuesday. The Mariners, who are as much in the race as anybody as they look for their first playoff appearance in 20 years, traded their breakout closer Kendall Graveman, along with Rafael Montero, to the division-leading Astros, who are still in Seattle. Fans are still confused as to why Jerry Dipoto made the trade, especially at this point in the season and with this particular team. But, at least in the short term, this could give the Mariners something to rally around and get fired up about, as early reports indicated that much of the Seattle clubhouse was (understandably) shocked and angered over the move.

Yusei Kikuchi is coming off his first All-Star selection for the Mariners, and while he didn’t pitch well in his first two starts following the break, he delivered a key performance last Friday, going 6.0 innings against the Athletics, striking out 12 and limiting them to 3 runs. Kikuchi struggled the last time he faced the Astros in April, but he’s gained a ton of confidence since then and is pitching in a playoff race for the first time in his brief big-league career. Jake Odorizzi hasn’t been the same pitcher he was earlier in his career after struggling with injuries the past two seasons, so expect the Mariners to score some runs off him, and take the home team as an underdog.

Game Totals Pick

Kikuchi goes deep into games, but that doesn’t mean he puts up zeroes – in his last start against Houston, he went 7.0 innings but surrendered 5 runs. Without Graveman behind him, the Mariners would most likely turn to Paul Sewald in a save situation, and one good half-season isn’t enough to have confidence in a first-time closer.

Odorizzi, on the other hand, doesn’t go deep at all. He’s gone 6 innings (and no more than that) in just 2 of his 12 starts as an Astro, pitching to a 4.23 ERA over that stretch. The starting pitchers have given up a combined 49 hits through 8 July starts, and, while this might seem basic, hits often lead to runs. Take the over.

Over 8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Wed Jul 28

Money Line Pick

On Tuesday evening, the Oakland Athletics dropped the opening game of a brief two-game set against the San Diego Padres by a final score of 7-4. It was Oakland’s fourth consecutive loss as they continue to struggle to start the second half of the campaign. The victory snapped a mini two-game losing streak for the Padres. The starting pitching matchup for this afternoon’s contest between these two clubs will feature Sean Manaea for Oakland against Blake Snell. In 2021, Manaea is having the best season of his career, posting a 3.16 ERA, 3.81 xERA and a 3.31 FIP. He owns a strong 26.5 strikeout percentage against a 5.8 percent walk-rate and ranks better than league average in barrel percentage and xwOBA. Manaea’s 3.29 ERA and 3.57 FIP over his last seven starts are additional evidence of his consistency and dependability. He should be able to find success this afternoon against a San Diego lineup that ranks 18th in OPS and 24th in ISO against left-handed pitching.

Snell has dreadful season-long numbers, which include a 6.08 ERA and a 5.00 FIP over his last nine outings. During that stretch, he owns an alarmingly-high 14.4 percent walk-rate and a 1.65 WHIP. He draws a favorable matchup this afternoon against an Oakland offense that ranks 20th in OPS and 11th in ISO against southpaws on the year, but bettors should still hesitate to trust him here. The Athletics have a slightly better offense in this contest and a far superior starting pitcher. The main concern in backing Oakland is a bullpen that ranks 20th in baseball in a 4.39 FIP over the last 30 days. A wager on Oakland in the first five innings is an extremely strong play. If playing the full game, take the wager down a unit, but at plus-money, the Athletics are still a worthwhile risk.

Game Totals Pick

Oakland’s bullpen has struggled over the last month, but other than that, it is incredibly difficult to understand why the market price on this total is so high. Thus far in 2021, Petco Park has graded as the fourth-best pitcher-friendly venue in Major League Baseball in day games, producing five percent less offense compared to the league average.

Snell has been unreliable all year, but it is difficult to imagine him getting shelled against an Oakland lineup that ranks 22nd in OPS and 21st in ISO over the last two weeks. Manaea should be able to have an effective day against a San Diego lineup that has struggled against southpaws since Opening Day. Expect a lower-scoring affair and take the under with confidence.     

Under 8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Wed Jul 28
Money Line Pick
MIA Marlins Win
Odds
Bonus

Money Line Pick

The Marlins took the first game of their series against the Orioles by a score of 7-3 on Tuesday, and they have now won three games in a row. Miami should feel good about their chances of winning four in a row for the second time this season as they go up against Baltimore starter Jorge Lopez on Wednesday. Not much has gone right for Lopez this season, and he is 2-12 with a 5.84 ERA on the year. Opponents are hitting a strong .295 against him, and Miami is seeing the ball well right now. The Marlins have 27 hits over their last 2 games, and they managed to plate 7 runs on 15 hits in last night’s game. Look for Miami to keep the bats rolling against Lopez and a below-average Baltimore bullpen.

Jordan Holloway is slated to get the start for Miami in what could be a bit of a bullpen game, and he has allowed just 5 hits over his last 13.0 innings of work. He has a solid 1.38 ERA over his last 3 outings, and he is holding opponents to a .167 average and .558 OPS on the year. The Marlins’ bullpen is pitching well, and they have the second-best ERA in all of baseball over the last week (2.29). It’s hard to back Lopez and Baltimore’s bullpen against a team that is hot at the plate, so consider backing Miami on the road.

Game Totals Pick

Camden Yards is one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball, and we could see a high-scoring game. Miami is hot at the plate, and it seems unlikely that Lopez will be able to slow them down. Baltimore has the second-worst bullpen ERA in the American League (4.87), so Miami should be able to have a solid day at the plate.

On the other side, Baltimore has scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their 10 games in the second half, and Cedric Mullins and Trey Mancini continue to provide quality production at the top of the lineup. In addition, the Orioles generally swing the bats better at home, so look for this game to go over the total.

Over 9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Wed Jul 28

Run Line Pick

Given the pitching matchup and the way the teams are trending, the Phillies were already heavy favorites over the Nationals for Wednesday’s game even before the news that broke on Tuesday night (see below). Zack Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in the National League and while he wasn’t given the honor, he legitimately deserved to start the All-Star Game after Jacob deGrom opted not to play. Wheeler pitches deeper into games than just about anyone in baseball, and he is coming off an excellent start against the Braves that lowered his ERA to 2.37 through 20 starts.

As if things weren’t bad enough already for the Nationals, Trea Turner was pulled in the first inning of Tuesday night’s game. While it was unclear at first why Turner was leaving (leading to some speculation that he had been traded), it turned out he had tested positive for Covid-19 and will be out for at least the next week. The Nationals’ bullpen has been horrendous over the last week. The one silver lining in facing Wheeler is that they most likely won’t have a lead to blow. It’s always a risk taking the run line for the home team, especially one with a bullpen as shaky as that of the Phillies, but in this case it’s the right move. Go with Philadelphia -1.5.

Game Totals Pick

Patrick Corbin gave up more hits than anyone in baseball in 2020, and this season has been even worse for the Nationals’ $150 million man. Even as we near the end of the season’s fourth month, Corbin continues to get shellacked start after start, bringing a 5.71 ERA and an opposing average up near .300 into his start against Philadelphia.

When Wheeler gets into a mid-innings groove he’s virtually untouchable, but he’s a lot easier to crack early — he has an ERA of 4.50 in the first inning this season. Neither bullpen has lived up to potential so far in 2021, and that’s been especially true for Washington of late. Lean toward the over.

Over 8 available at time of publishing. Playable to over 8.5.

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Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Wed Jul 28
Money Line Pick
MIL Brewers Win
Odds
Bonus

Money Line Pick

As of 1:30pm Eastern time, the Pirates still haven’t announced who’s pitching for them on Wednesday. But against the first-place Brewers, it really doesn’t matter. The Brewers scored 8 runs before making an out in the second inning in Tuesday’s series opener and won 9-0. Even without Christian Yelich, who’ll be on the sidelines for the next week-plus with COVID-19, Milwaukee’s offense is too great of a force for Pittsburgh’s pitching staff. All-Star catcher Omar Narvaez, one of the best players in baseball that no one seems to talk about, drove in 4 more runs on Tuesday, upping his average to .289 on the season, a mark more than 100 points higher than it was last year.

While the Pirates are still TBD mere hours before game time, we know that the Brewers will be starting Adrian Houser. Milwaukee had four deserving pitchers represent them in the Midsummer Classic, and while those four guys get most of the attention, depth is just as important for a winning team as stardom, and Houser has provided that this year. He’s kept his ERA under 4 in 17 starts this year and got the win the last time he faced Pittsburgh, going 6.2 innings and allowing just a run on July 2. The Pirates’ lineup was never formidable to begin with, but without Adam Frazier in the leadoff spot, it won’t be hard for Houser to handle at all. Take Milwaukee on the money line.

Game Totals Pick

The main concern for Houser this season has been depth – he’s failed to go 5 innings in each of his last 3 appearances, and he’s yet to complete 7 this season. Milwaukee would love for him to go deeper into games to hand the ball straight off to Devin Williams and Josh Hader, but that just hasn’t been the case so far this year.

He also pitches to contact more than average, as do (seemingly) most of the guys on the Pirates’ staff. Some of the Pirates have taken advantage of that – even light-hitting Kevin Newman, the new everyday leadoff man since the Frazier trade, has gone deep off Houser. That should be enough for Pittsburgh to do their part, and the Brewers should do the rest to hit the over.

Over 9 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Wed Jul 28

Money Line Pick

When Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela got placed in the COVID-19 protocols, it was hard to believe the Yankees would stay relevant in the AL East for the next two weeks. But the Yankees exceeded expectations and won five out of the nine games prior to their day off on Monday. They managed to get their first win against the Red Sox this season and even swept the Phillies in the two-game series in Philadelphia, but their time without their star player might be over. Judge took batting practice on Monday and is expected to return to the Yankees during their series in Tampa Bay, which would be a huge boost for a New York offense that needs to make up some ground in the AL East. The Yankees will steal a page out of the Rays’ playbook and utilize an opener for this game as Nestor Cortes will make his third start of the season. Cortes has been one of the most reliable arms in the bullpen for Aaron Boone and he’s continued his success in the starting rotation as he has allowed 1 run on 4 hits during his 8 innings as a starter. 

Michael Wacha was once the biggest prospect in the Cardinals’ system, but St. Louis decided to part ways with their first-round draft pick after seven years and let him walk in free agency. Wacha signed with the Mets for a year and after posting a 6.62 ERA, he tried his luck in Tampa Bay. The Rays have been famous for turning decent pitchers into excellent relief pitchers and saving a lot of careers, but Wacha has not had the same success so far. His 5.16 ERA and 1.34 WHIP are some of the highest numbers of his career and stats say that Wacha will only go downhill from here. His xERA stands at 6.07 and his xBA is .289 which are both much higher compared to his ERA and BAA, so stats predict more poor showings in his future. The Yankees have the better starting pitcher and bullpen when healthy, so take a shot with New York as underdogs and hope Judge suits up.

Game Totals Pick

According to Baseball Savant, the only two categories that Wacha ranks above average in are walk-rate and chase- rate. That means the Yankees offense is more than capable of getting to Wacha and putting up a big number on the scoreboard.

Although the teams have two of the best bullpens in the American League, there should be enough runs for this game to surpass the total. Lean to the over, but the better bet in this game is on the money line.

Over 7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Wed Jul 28

Money Line Pick

The Blue Jays need to find ways to beat Boston if they are going to close the gap. It seems their best approach is to have the bats go crazy because they have struggled in close games against the Red Sox and against teams in general. Toronto is 6-12 in one-run games after blowing a late lead in the loss on Monday night. Even though they have made some minor moves this group is hungry for something a little meatier. They need an impact player. Boston keeps winning games but has yet to add to their group with a deal, they might not want to upset the mix. They are playing a lot of close games and winning them. Three times in their last 5 games they have won by a 5-4 score. 3B Rafael Devers has quietly passed the Jays’ Vlad Guerrero Jr. for the MLB lead in RBIs. Their offense has been strong all season and might be getting better as OF Alex Verdugo heats up. He delivered the game-winning homer on Monday. 

Steven Matz is 1-1 since the break for the Jays. The lefty shut out the Rangers in one start and was solid against the Mets in the other, but the Jays didn’t score a run for him so he took the loss at Citi Field. He has been better on the road than at the Jays’ many homes this season. His homer rate drops significantly though pitching at Fenway for a lefty is never ideal. This will be the first time that Tanner Houck will make back-to-back starts for the Red Sox this season. He did not pitch deep enough to get the win in his last start but was very effective against the Yankees with 8 Ks in 4+ innings. The Jays haven’t seen him this season so there could be an advantage there. It can pay to fade lefties at Fenway Park. A game can really get away from a pitcher there, especially if they are not familiar with it. The Jays offense could heat up against an inexperienced pitcher. There is good value with the visitors. Take Toronto.

Game Totals Pick

The opener of the series did not have a lot of fireworks. In fact, Boston has just 1 over in its last 10 games. These are still two of the best scoring teams in the league, so leaning to the over even though we have to clear a higher number to get there.

The Jays’ bullpen is a killer. In their last 7 games, their ERA is 5.28 and they are likely to log at least a couple of innings in support of Matz. This one feels more like a 7-5 game than another of the 5-4 variety. Take the over.

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Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
New York Mets
Wed Jul 28

Money Line Pick

Atlanta split a double-header with the Mets on Monday. This series was a golden chance to make up some ground quickly but they are just treading water. That makes it tough to know which way they go in terms of the roster moving forward. They should punt 2021 and get what they can for starter Charlie Morton, but we will have to wait and see. Are they really going to win in the playoffs without Ronald Acuna Jr.? They haven’t been able to win with him. The pitching-heavy Mets continue to lead the NL East. They made a move to get a little more starting pitching with the acquisition of Rich Hill and now we are all waiting to see how they improve the lineup. Even though he has not had a good season, it looks like it will still be a month before SS Francisco Lindor returns to the lineup. That apparently has made Citi Field a potential landing spot for the Rockies’ Trevor Story. That’s a good fit and the sooner it happens the better. 

Braves lefty Max Fried has continued his inconsistent season after the All-Star break. In his first start back he shut out the Rays for 7 innings, and in his next, the Phillies tagged him for 4 runs in 5 IP. His road splits are bad, 2-3, 6.55 ERA. He is 1-1 against the Mets this season and has pitched well against them, even in the game he lost. Mets rookie Tyler Megill has just six starts to his MLB career and two of those were against Atlanta, his first two. The Mets were 1-1 in those games though the rookie did not earn a decision. He has improved with more experience. In his last two starts, he has not given up a run over 12 innings. Even though the Mets are at the top of the division, the gap between these teams is not that great. Megill is not getting a ton of respect in the marketplace against the more well-known Fried and the Mets have the advantage of the last at-bat. Take New York.

Game Totals Pick

Megill has pitched well for the Mets this season. He has made 6 starts this season and only two have gone over the number. In July he has pitched in only 1 over in 4 starts, so even with the modest total of 8 the under still looks good.

It is extremely encouraging that he was able to slow down the Blue Jays offense over the weekend. That group is much better than what the Braves have right now. Fried is not my favorite but the Mets don’t have much in their lineup to take advantage of the lefty. At home, they are playing unders 69% of the time. Take the under.

Under 8 available at time of publishing.

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Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers
Wed Jul 28

Money Line Pick

If you’re looking for good pitching, you have come to the wrong game. Both starters enter this matchup with an ERA north of five and have really struggled to find consistency this season. The Diamondbacks will have the veteran Madison Bumgarner on the hill and his career has died in Arizona. After having an ERA below four in all 11 years in San Francisco, Bumgarner had a horrible 2020 campaign with a 6.48 ERA and hasn’t been much better this year with a 5.09 ERA. But there still is some hope with the lefty since his barrel rate is low and his curveball still has a lot of bite to it, so he is more than capable of shutting down one of the worst offenses in the league. Prior to Tuesday night’s 5-4 win, the Rangers had lost 12 games in a row and ranked last in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS since the All-Star break. I wouldn’t consider the Diamondbacks offense the most dependable lineup in the league, but right now they’re better at the plate and that’s all that matters.

If the Diamondbacks can’t get to Jordan Lyles, the franchise might as well quit. Lyles has had an ERA above 5 for 8 of his 11 years in the big leagues and it is kind of amazing that he still has a job. The Rangers might be holding onto hope that he could bring back some of the magic from when he was traded to the Brewers in 2019 and became the ace of the staff with a 2.75 ERA, but it seems safe to say that was a fluke. His .278 xBA and .482 xSLG show no sign of improvement and his 5.47 xERA means he has actually been pitching better than he should be. The mix of Lyles on the mound and the Rangers at the plate is a recipe for runs for Arizona, so back the Diamondbacks as one of the best underdogs on Wednesday.

Game Totals Pick

Normally with Lyles on the mound, the over looks very enticing. But with the Rangers finding it hard to score, it makes it hard for the over to hit. By no means are we backing these two pitchers, but consider this fading these two offenses as the Rangers can’t seem to hit water if they fell off a boat.

The Diamondbacks should be doing the majority of the scoring and may reach five or more runs, but the Rangers offense looks dead at the moment and with trade rumors swirling in their clubhouse it’s hard to expect them to play like a team. Fade these two offenses and take the under in Texas.

Under 8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Wed Jul 28

Money Line Pick

After blowing a late lead in Monday night’s game, the Cincinnati Reds rebounded on Tuesday for a 7-4 victory against the Chicago Cubs. The starting pitching matchup for Game 3 of this four-game set at Wrigley Field will feature Tyler Mahle for the Reds against Zach Davies. Mahle has followed up his breakout 2020 campaign with a very solid start to the 2021 season. Through 20 turns in the rotation, he owns a 3.92 ERA, 3.73 xERA, and a 4.03 FIP. Although his 9.4 percent walk-rate remains worse than the league average, he ranks in the 80th percentile with a 29.2 strikeout-percentage, in addition to ranking better than league average in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and whiff-percentage. Mahle has struggled over his last six starts, posting a 5.17 ERA and a 5.96 FIP, but his best start during this stretch came in an outing against the Cubs in which he allowed only a single earned run on five hits. He has the tools to be effective once again against a Chicago lineup that continues to struggle.

Davies has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. He ranks in the 11th percentile with a 5.69 xERA, is striking out only 15.5 percent of opposing batters and walking just under 12 percent of the players he faces. Cincinnati’s lineup is only 13th in OPS and 19th in ISO over the last two weeks, but they rank sixth in OPS against right-handed pitching on the season. Despite Mahle’s recent struggles, the Reds have the better starting pitcher in this matchup. Even without Nick Castellanos in the lineup, Cincinnati also has a slight advantage on the offensive side of the ball. The bullpen is always a concern when backing the Reds, but Cincinnati is worthy of a small wager.

Game Totals Pick

At first pitch this evening, the temperature is forecasted to be in the mid-80s with high humidity and a 7 mph wind blowing out towards left-center field. Handicapping totals at Wrigley Field has been a challenge this year, due to the irregularity at which runs have been scored. Over the last three years, Wrigley Field was a strong pitchers’ park in night games. However, in 2021, the venue has produced the fifth-best offensive metrics of any park in baseball.

Mahle has been struggling lately and Davies has been about as bad as a pitcher can be this year. Neither one of these offenses is overpowering, but the first two games of this series have each gone over the total and resulted in 11 runs. Expect another over tonight, but make it a small play due to the high humidity, which could play to the pitchers’ advantage.    

Over 10 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
Wed Jul 28

Run Line Pick

The White Sox reached 60 wins with a 5-3 success against the Royals on Tuesday, and they should feel good about their chances again on Wednesday with Lucas Giolito on the mound. Giolito has posted a 1.79 ERA over his last 3 starts, and he has allowed just 15 hits in 20.1 innings. He seems to be getting some confidence back, and he has thrown the ball well against the Royals throughout his career. In 15 career starts against Kansas City, Giolito is 8-3 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.

Chicago has one of the most well-rounded lineups in baseball, and they received a boost with Eloy Jimenez making his first appearance of the season earlier this week. He went 2-for-3 with a home run and 3 RBIs in last night’s game, and his powerful bat makes the White Sox lineup even more intimidating. Kansas City starter Kris Bubic will have a tough challenge trying to slow them down. The Royals had won 6 games in a row before last night’s loss, but they have underperformed for most of the season and they are just 21-36 against teams with a winning record this season. The White Sox have got better now that Jimenez is back in the lineup, and they should be able to get a strong start from Giolito. Back the White Sox -1.5 on the run line.

Game Totals Pick

The under is the recommendation in this matchup, but only as a small play. Giolito has been great over his last three starts, and he has generally pitched well against the Royals throughout his career. He is capable of pitching deep into the game, and the back-end of Chicago’s bullpen has been steady as well.

Bubic has allowed just 2 earned runs over his last 2 starts (12.0 innings), and he pitched well against the White Sox when he faced them on May 8. He tossed 5.2 scoreless innings and allowed just a single hit in that start, and while expecting a repeat of that outing is a tough ask it should give him some confidence going into this matchup. Consider a small play on the under.

Under 10 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels
Wed Jul 28

Run Line Pick

The Rockies average the fewest runs per game when on the road, but they exploded for 10 runs in the first 5 innings of Tuesday’s game. But prior to that, Colorado had scored 4 runs in their previous 3 games and that has been the story of the Rockies’ season so far. They have had some incredible comeback wins and double-digit victories, but they also have one of the most inconsistent lineups in the league. Trevor Story continues to be the spark in the Rockies offense and it is a little surprising that Story is still in a Rockies uniform since almost half the teams in the MLB have checked in on him. Chi Chi Gonzalez will get the ball for Colorado and it has been a rough season for Gonzalez to say the least. Gonzalez enters this matchup with a 6.05 ERA and it’s easy to write off his high ERA since his home field is considered the most hitter-friendly park in the stadium, but here’s a twist: Gonzalez’s ERA is higher on the road than it is at Coors Field. That means he has actually pitched better in Colorado than on the road, which is incredibly uncommon. And since he ranks in the second percentile or worse in xBA, xERA, and xSLG it’s easy to see this has not been Gonzalez’s best year.

The Angels will start the lefty Andrew Heaney, who has had a decent season despite his below-average numbers. Heaney has posted a 5.32 ERA in 88 innings pitched, but his xERA is a full run below at 4.20 which means some positive regression is in his future. The southpaw has the second-best xBA and xERA of his career and is more than capable of shutting down the Rockies lineup that relies too much on the bats of Story and Charlie Blackmon. The money line is way too steep, so back the Angels -1.5 on the run line and expect a softball score against Gonzalez.

Game Totals Pick

This game could see a double-digit score by the seventh inning if Gonzalez continues to struggle on the road. With Tuesday night’s game easily surpassing the total, 34 of the 51 games at Angel Stadium have gone over this season.

That means the over has hit in 68% of Angels home games this year, which is by far the most by any team. Baltimore is second, but they are barely above the 60% mark. This total is giving way too much respect to the starters and not enough respect to the offenses, so take the over in Anaheim.

Over 9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Wed Jul 28

Money Line Pick

In the five meetings between these clubs since the All-Star break, the San Francisco Giants have emerged victorious four times, including a 2-1 win last night to open a three-game set at Oracle Park. Tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers will hope to reverse their recent fortune in this rivalry as they send Walker Buehler to the hill, who will be opposed by Anthony DeSclafani. Buehler has been fantastic through his first 20 turns in the rotation, posting a 2.31 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and a 3.20 FIP. He ranks better than league-average in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xBA, chase-rate, fastball velocity, and spin rate on both his fastball and curveball. He owns a dazzling 0.91 WHIP and has a strong 26.4 strikeout percentage against a 5.8 percent walk-rate. Over his last five starts, he has been outstanding with a 1.69 ERA and a 1.68 FIP. Expect him to have another strong performance this evening.

DeSclafani has rebounded from an ugly 2020 to post a 2.87 ERA, 3.68 xERA, and a 3.61 FIP across 119.1 innings of work in 2021. However, his ERA is noticeably buoyed by an unsustainable .239 BABIP and an 80.7 left-on-base percentage. He gives up quite a bit of hard contact and fails to generate many swings-and-misses on pitches outside of the strike zone. DeSclafani delivered a quality start in his most recent outing against the Dodgers on July 22, but it would not be surprising if Los Angeles makes life more difficult on him this time around. The Dodgers have a clear starting pitching advantage in this contest. Over the last two weeks, Los Angeles ranks 18th in OPS and fourth in ISO, compared to the Giants who rank 16th in OPS and fifth in ISO. Both bullpens rank in the top 10 in FIP over the last 30 days of action. The starting pitching should be a difference-maker in a Dodgers win tonight.

Game Totals Pick

Tonight, Buehler and DeSclafani will both be facing the same lineup for the second time in less than a week — a tough task for any pitcher against any lineup, but it becomes an especially difficult task when the opposing lineups are as good as the Dodgers and Giants. Yesterday, Los Angeles experienced some poor luck on balls in play with a .200 BABIP against Logan Webb through the first six frames.

Oracle Park is one of the better pitcher-friendly venues in Major League Baseball, but these two offenses are too talented to be held to a combined three runs for the second consecutive night. Expect far more scoring opportunities this evening in a game that has a good chance to hit the over.   

Over 7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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There are 2,430 total games in the MLB regular season and our expert MLB picks provide insight and analysis including an MLB Expert Pick for every game, if you’re looking for the best MLB bets today we have you covered.

MLB Games Today – Today’s Best MLB Picks

We offer our MLB expert picks throughout the 6-month MLB season with great success. We have you covered with Today’s MLB Picks, available for all of the MLB games today. Our MLB picks cover the marquee matchups as well as the under-the-radar plays away from the spotlights where you often find tremendous value. Pitching matchups, weather, injuries, travel schedule, and many other factors are all taken into account to find the best MLB picks in all of the MLB games today.

2021 MLB Picks

MLB picks provide a real test across such an action-packed and long season. The age-old cliche of it being a marathon and not a sprint is most applicable to MLB picks during the 2,430 game season. 

Our experts spend hours researching and analyzing all of the key information such as statistics, pitchers, team news, weather, travel, and more before making our MLB picks for every game of the 2021 MLB season.

With 2,340 regular season games, and an entire MLB postseason to breakdown, the level of detail required for long-term wagering success is huge. That’s where our experts shine, we do the research so you don’t have to, bringing you a full game preview and the best free MLB picks for every game of the 2021 season. 

Free Money line MLB Picks 

The most popular way to bet on MLB is via the Moneyline. This means games are basically handicapped based on each of the team’s starting pitchers. “Sure thing” pitchers such as Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw are going to cost you, often requiring a $200 or more wager to make $100 (-200). Finding an even pitching matchup or one of those stud pitchers that may be fatigued and going against them is the best way to make money in MLB betting. Our free MLB money line picks help you identify these profitable matchups for every game of the baseball season.

MLB Picks Against The Spread – Run Line MLB Picks

The spread in baseball is known as ‘the run line’. Many bettors feel there isn’t as much value laying -200 on an all-star caliber pitcher because even elite pitchers can turn the game over to his bullpen who will subsequently blow the game and cost them the win. Therefore betting on the run line (-1.5 or +1.5) is a great way to find better MLB prices compared to the Moneyline. A Clayton Kershaw pick on the ML (win outright) for example might be -240 but betting that same game to win by 2 runs or more (run line) could be priced at -120. MLB run line betting works in the opposite way too. There are a lot of 1-run games in baseball and betting on a team +1.5 runs is a great way to string together wagering wins if you think teams can keep games close.

Free Total Runs MLB Picks

There’s no other sport where the stadiums and the weather are so crucial to the scoring as the MLB. This is why our free MLB picks on the totals see almost as much wagering from the public as each side of the game itself.

The dimensions of the MLB parks are also different and need to be factored in when making your MLB picks. Coors Field for example is located in the high altitude of Denver, Colorado which means it’s not unlikely to see scores similar to 11-8 three or four times a week. Minute Maid Park in Houston for example has a left-field wall that is just 315 feet from home plate compared to AT&T Park in San Francisco that has a right-center field alley of 421 feet.

Weather is a major factor when picking our MLB picks today. The ball travels better on 92 degree Summer days in Arlington, Texas, or when the wind is blowing out to left field at 23 MPH at Wrigley Field in Chicago. So before you head to the window make sure you check the weather report to give your ticket the best chance of cashing, particularly with those MLV Totals picks.

Our experts do all of this research and analysis for you and our accompanying game preview will detail all of the key factors in making our MLB Totals Picks for each game. 

Alternate Free Expert MLB Picks

There are numerous ways to have success betting on MLB. For example, if you are confident in a team’s starting pitching but have reservations on their bullpen and relievers, sportsbooks offer the first 5 innings lines.

Also if you are really confident in a particular matchup you can bet on alternate run lines or taking a team to win by -2.5 or even -3.5 runs with increasing payouts. Another fun way to essentially bet on all MLB games of the day at once is with a grand salami wager, in which you’re wagering on the over/under for total runs scored in all games on a given day. There’s plenty of fun to be had on a daily basis with our MLB picks.

MLB Schedule 2021

The 2021 MLB Schedule sees a welcome to return to somewhat a normal baseball season. While fans and attendances will remain limited on a state-by-state basis, baseball is back! And so is the full schedule of games.

The 2021 Major League baseball season will begin on April 1st, 2021 with all 30 Major League teams playing on opening day for the fourth consecutive year. Just five games are scheduled to be played on Friday, April 2nd but the first weekend of the season is packed, with a full 15 games on Saturday 3rd and 13 games on Sunday 4th. The 2021 MLB Schedule is certainly starting with a bang.

The inter-league schedule for 2021 will see the AL West vs. NL West, AL East vs. NL East, and AL Central vs. NL Central. One key takeaway from the inter-league schedule is that the New York Mets will host the New York Yankees at Citi Field across September 10th-12, 2021 – the first time the two New York sides will play each other on September 11th as the league observes the 20th anniversary.

The 2021 MLB playoffs are scheduled to start on October 5th, with a World Series start date planned for Tuesday 26th October.

Pickswise will provide expert analysis on every game of the 2021 MLB Schedule, including who we have winning the world series in 2021. 

2021 MLB Playoff Picks

In addition to free daily MLB picks, we also provide insight into MLB playoffs betting. From wild card ‘play-in’ matchups to Game 7 of the World Series, there’s nothing quite like the excitement of October baseball. In the MLB playoffs, pitching rotations are shortened and home-field becomes an even bigger advantage but it’s important to make sure the lines reflect that. Our experts analyze every playoff game and give you their expert MLB picks to help you make the best selections in the MLB Playoffs to finish off the season strongly and in profit.

2021 World Series Picks

The World Series is the prize in which all 30 teams dream of winning at the start of the season, but some teams have a better chance of winning it than others. You can wager on the World Series winner as soon as the previous season concludes and the odds will fluctuate throughout the offseason in reaction to trades and both player and team news. You can also wager on your World Series picks at any stage throughout the season, with the world series odds also updated in reaction to how the season pans out. Our expert handicappers will provide analysis and expert world series picks before the season as well as highlighting value picks throughout the 2021 MLB season.

Free Baseball Picks Today

Baseball is a notoriously difficult sport to bet on day today. Teams will typically play each other in mini-series over a few days, and it’s common to see the sides split these games. Trying to find out which team is primed on any given day in a league built around parity is no easy task. To make the most informed decision about any matchup or wager requires a lot of time and research ahead of making our MLB baseball picks. Our expert handicappers will consider everything from pitching lineups, bullpen strength, the number of days on the road, player injuries, the stadium, the weather, and a whole host of advanced statistical models before making our baseball picks. With 2,340 regular-season games and up to 15 on any given day, that’s a lot of hours’ worth of research for any one person. That’s where we at Pickswise come to the fore. Our team of baseball, experts do the research for you. All of our baseball picks and free and come with full reasoning, analysis, and a confidence rating. Check out our MLB Best Bets page for our favorite plays today