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Fri 18th - 8:08pm ET: Houston Astros @ New York Yankees picks, expert predictions & betting tips

Houston Astros
New York Yankees
NY Yankees Money Line
-132
Over 8.5 Game Totals
-105

Money Line Pick

New York will be trying to tie this series up at home where they’ll be throwing out their ace Masahiro Tanaka to oppose Houston’s Zack Greinke. New York got the better of Greinke in his last start where he went 6 innings and gave up 3 earned runs, while he posted a 1.17 WHIP to go with 6 strikeouts. He has fared well against New York though where in 18.2 innings of work against them this season, he’s only given up 6 earned runs to go with 20 strikeouts. Tanaka will be looking for a repeat performance against Houston where he pitched 6 scoreless innings, while he struck out 4 batters. Greinke hasn’t been that hot where he’s given up 9 earned runs in his last 2 starts, but has struck out 11 batters. New York has won 8 of their last 11 matchups against Houston. Tanaka proved to be in good form, while Greinke has been off in the playoffs. Rolling with New York’s potent lineup to come alive here against Greinke and Houston at home.

Over Under Pick

This has been a low scoring affair where the under has hit in their last 3 meetings where New York has averaged 3.33 R/G and Houston has averaged 2.33 R/G. During that span these squads have combined to average 13 H/G and 20 K/G. The under has also hit in 4 of their last 5 outings, while it has also hit in 4 of their last 6 meetings. The under has also hit in 12 of Houston’s last 16 games. However, this time around I expect Greinke’s struggles to continue, while Tanaka could be due for an off outing after containing a very potent Houston lineup. Bucking against the trends here and backing this total to go over for the first time in this series.

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The spread in baseball is known as ‘the run line’. Many bettors feel there isn’t as much value laying -200 on an all-star caliber pitcher because that hurler can turn the game over to his bullpen who will subsequently blow the game and cost them the win. Therefore betting on the run line (-1.5 or +1.5) is a great way to find better MLB prices compare to the Moneyline. A Clayton Kershaw pick on the ML (win outright) for example might be -240 but betting that same game to win by 2 runs or more (run line) could be priced at -120. MLB runline betting works in the opposite way too. There are a lot of 1-run games in baseball and betting on a team +1.5 runs is a great way to string together wagering wins if you think teams can keep games close.

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The dimensions of the MLB parks are also different and need to be factored in when making your MLB predictions. Coors Field for example is located in the high altitude of Denver, Colorado which means it’s not unlikely to see scores similar to 11-8 three or four times a week. Minute Maid Park in Houston for example has a left field wall that is just 315 feet from home plate compared to AT&T Park in San Francisco that has a right-center field alley of 421 feet.

Weather is a major factor when picking our your MLB predictions today. The ball travels better on 92 degree Summer days in Arlington, Texas or when the wind is blowing out to left field at 23 MPH at Wrigley Field in Chicago.  So before you head to the window make sure your check the weather report to give your ticket the best chance of cashing.

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There are numerous ways to have success betting on the MLB. For example, if you are confident in a team’s starting pitching but have reservations on their bullpen and relievers, sportsbooks offer first 5 inning lines. Also if you are really confident in a particular matchup you can bet on alternate runlines or taking a team to win by -2.5 or even -3.5 runs with increasing payouts. Another fun way to essentially bet on all MLB games of the day at once is with a grand salami wager. This ante has you wagering whether all of the combined games of the day go ‘over’ or ‘under’ a set amount of runs. There’s plenty of fun to be had on a daily basis with our MLB predictions.

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