Money Line Pick

For the most part this year Dylan Bundy has really struggled for the Baltimore Orioles, but he has been improving recently. In his last start he was lights out, going seven innings and giving up five hits and only one run. In three of his last four starts, he has given up two runs or less. I like the way he is pitching and I think he is going to have more success in this one. This is a lean at best, but take the Orioles to get the job done.

Over Under Pick

This is a total I don’t have a big opinion on, but all trends for both sides point towards the under. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Baltimore, 4-1 in the last 5 meetings overall, 5-0 in the Orioles’ last 5 home games, 4-1 in the Orioles’ last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The under is also 6-1 in the Rays’ last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, and 4-1 in the Rays’ last 5 vs. American League East. Back the under.

Money Line Pick

One of the most important games on the slate on Sunday is this one between the Braves and the Mets, and it should be a great game. Dallas Keuchel started slow after signing midseason but he has gotten it really figured out in his last couple of games. Over his last two starts he has gone 12 innings, giving up only one run total. One of those starts was against the Mets and in that game he gave up zero runs. The Braves have been one of the hottest teams in baseball the last couple of months and coming into this game have won eight of their last ten. Back the slight underdog to get the job done.

Over Under Pick

Just like Keuchel has been strong as of late, so has Steven Matz for the Mets. Over his last three starts he has given up only four runs total. The under is 5-1-1 in Keuchel’s last 7 starts vs. National League East, 9-2-1 in Keuchel’s last 12 starts on grass, 4-1-2 in the Mets’ last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 on grass, and 10-4 in the Mets’ last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. If you like good pitching matchups, make sure to tune into this one. Back the under.

Money Line Pick

I would advise you to not bet this game on who will win because the Indians will probably win, but they have zero value on the run line or the money line. Shane Bieber has been good for the Indians but in his last start he did give up four runs which does give me a bit of hope for what can happen in this game. In each of his last three starts he has also given up at least two runs. I don’t love this pick, but take the value with the Royals.

Over Under Pick

The better play in this game is with the total and I like the over. Eric Skoglund is on the mound for the Royals and he will be making his first appearance of 2019. He has played each of the last two years for the Royals and he hasn’t been great. Last year he was 1-5 with an ERA over five. The over is 4-0 in Bieber’s last 4 starts vs. Royals, and 9-3 in the Indians’ last 12 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Back the over in this one.

Run Line Pick

The Philadelphia Phillies send out Aaron Nola to the mound and that means very good things for their chances to win the game. Nola has been lights out for the most part this year, coming into this game with a 12-3 record and an ERA of 3.51. Over his last three games he has a 2-1 record and an ERA under three. On the mound for the Marlins is Elieser Hernandez, who hasn’t been good this year, coming into this game with a 2-5 record and an ERA over five. The Marlins are 2-9 over their last 11 games and they will drop another one here. Back the Phillies on the run line.

Over Under Pick

The Marlins are going to struggle to score in this game, so it’s all going to come down to how many runs the Phillies can score. In the first two games of this series the Phillies haven’t had any problems scoring, and I think that will continue in this game. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams, 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami, 9-1-1 in the Marlins’ last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-0 in the Phillies’ last 4 vs. National League East. Back the over to get the job done.

Money Line Pick

Pittsburgh will close this series where they’ll be sending out Dario Agrazal to oppose Cincinnati’s Trevor Bauer. On the season Bauer owns an elite 10.77 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, and 1.30 HR/9, while he owns a 4.06 ERA and 4.16 FIP. He owns a 5.87 ERA in the August to go with a .791 OPS. On the season for Agrazal, he owns a bleak 4.09 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, and 2.05 HR/9, to go with a 4.09 ERA and 6.49 FIP. Agrazal has had a rough August where he owns a 6.43 ERA and .888 OPS. Agrazal struggles to induce strikeouts, while that is Bauer’s specialty, and there is no comparison between the two. Backing the better pitcher here and rolling with Cincinnati and the run line.

Over Under Pick

The over has been money in this series where it has gone 6-3-1 in their last 10 meetings where Pittsburgh has averaged 6.40 R/G and Cincinnati has averaged 5.20 R/G. During that span, these squads have combined to average 19 H/G and 16 K/G. Bauer put in his worst month of baseball ERA-wise, while Agrazal is hard to trust considering he doesn’t have the strikeout ability to get out of jams. Rolling with this total to eclipse the run threshold.

Money Line Pick

Milwaukee will close out this series with Zach Davies on the mound, who will be opposing Arizona’s lefty, Robbie Ray. On the season, Ray owns an elite 11.85 K/9, 3.99 BB/9, and 1.46 HR/9, while he owns a 3.99 ERA and 4.08 FIP. He’s pitched his best month of baseball despite posting a 4.85 ERA, as he owns a solid .629 OPS. Davies has been pretty mediocre this year where he owns a bleak 5.78 K/9, 3.03 BB/9, and 1.20 HR/9, while he owns a shiny 3.74 ERA and a more representable 4.72 FIP. He owns a 6.62 ERA in August, to go with a .800 OPS. Milwaukee has won 7 straight at home versus Arizona. Milwaukee is top 6 in OPS in the last week, while Arizona is bottom 5, so I’m rolling with the hotter lineup here and backing Milwaukee at home.

Over Under Pick

This has been a low scoring series lately where in their last 3 meetings, Milwaukee has averaged 5.67 R/G and Arizona has averaged 1.67 R/G, while they both have combined to average 14 H/G and 20 K/G. The under has hit in 5 of Arizona’s last 6 games and 4 of Milwaukees last 5 games. This is Ray’s best month of baseball, but is about to run into a hot Milwaukee lineup that hits better at home, while Davies is always due for some runs as well. Backing this total to eclipse the 9.5 run threshold.

Run Line Pick

Houston will finish up this series with Framber Valdez on the mound, who will be opposing Los Angeles’ Jaime Barria. In 56 innings of work, Barria owns an 8.74 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, and 2.38 HR/9, while he owns a 6.35 ERA and 5.67 FIP. He’s posted a 6.59 ERA and 1.030 OPS in the month of August. Valdez was roughed up in his last stint with the team back in July where he was rocked by this very same team, giving up 1 home run and 4 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. Valdez has had some time to collect his thoughts down in Triple A, while Barria is struggling this August, which only bodes well for a potent Houston lineup. I’ll back the home team to finish this series with a victory, so I’ll back Houston and the run line.

Over Under Pick

The under has been trending in this series where it has hit in their last 3 meetings where Houston has averaged 5.33 R/G and Los Angeles has averaged 2.67 R/G. It has also hit in 4 of Los Angeles’ last 5 games and 6 of Houston’s last 7 games. Two shaky pitchers here has left the total a little high at 10.5 runs, and the way this series has been going, I’m backing the trends and staying under 10.5 runs.

Run Line Pick

The Tigers are stumbling into the final game of their series with rival Minnesota. Detroit looked great in the series opener in a much needed-win, but couldn’t get the same energy in the second game of the series. The Twins have lost two of the last four meetings with the Tigers. Matthew Boyd (6-9) will be on the mound for Detroit, while Minnesota rolls with Martin Perez (8-5). Boyd has cooled off as the season has gone on and has only registered one decision in his last three starts. Likewise, Perez has only one decision in his last three starts, but the Twins have won each of his last two starts. The Twins snapped their two-game losing streak in their last game and now can focus on rebuilding their lead over the Indians in the division race. The Tigers have been awful this season and should be avoided in this one. Back Minnesota on the run line here.

Over Under Pick

The first two meetings in this series have seen a good amount of offensive production for both teams. The Tigers and Twins have combined for over 10 runs in both games so far in this series. That includes 15 runs total in the series opener and followed that up by combining for 13 total runs in the last game. The over has yet another good shot in this one.

Money Line Pick

The Texas Rangers were able to pick up a much-needed victory over the White Sox in their last game. Chicago was able to win the first two games of this series, but couldn’t continue that success in the last meeting. Texas was able to snap their two-game slide, while the White Sox are now 4-2 in their last six games. Brock Burke (0-0) gets the nod on the mound for Texas, while Chicago hopes for a good start from Reynaldo Lopez (7-11). Burke makes only his second start after not registering a decision in his lone start this season. The Rangers were able to win that game. Lopez has lost his last two starts, including his most recent start which resulted in Chicago giving up 14 runs. Even after the hot start to this series for Chicago, the Rangers have picked up their play, and that is why they have a good shot to win this match-up. Roll with the Rangers in this one.

Over Under Pick

The over-under in this series has been up and down, and in two of the three games, the under was a good play. Throw in an over total in the second game of this series in a Chicago 8-3 win. The teams combined for seven total runs in the series opener, and the most recent game saw the White Sox go scoreless and the Rangers only put up four runs. The under is a good play in this one.

Money Line Pick

Break up the St. Louis Cardinals! They have won three in a row in this series against the Colorado Rockies, boast a 12-3 record in their last 15 games, and they are atop the National League Central. More of the same should continue on Sunday, as Colorado right-hander Antonio Senzatela has been an unmitigated disaster of late. He has allowed at least six earned runs in three consecutive starts–a total of 21 in 11.0 innings during this stretch of futility. St. Louis is countering with right-hander Michael Wacha, who has lowered his ERA from 6.61 to 5.22 since the beginning of June. Colorado is 18-37 in its last 55 overall, 17-35 in its last 52 on the road, 2-5 in Senzatela’s last seven road starts, and 14-38 in its last 52 at St. Louis. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six overall, 8-1 in their last nine at home, 8-3 in their last 11 against right-handed starters, and 41-17 in the last 58 meetings between the two teams. Take ST. LOUIS to the bank.

Over Under Pick

As the stats above suggest, neither starting pitcher is in scintillating form these days. St. Louis left fielder Marcell Ozuna is batting .346 with two home runs and 17 total bases in the past week. The over is 7-0 in the Rockies’ last seven that are the fourth in a series and 3-1-1 in Senzatela’s last five starts. It is also 6-1 in Wacha’s last seven home starts. Additionally, the over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the two teams and 6-1 in Colorado’s last seven at St. Louis. This one will likely go OVER the total.

Money Line Pick

The Chicago Cubs will be hoping to avoid getting swept at home when they host the Washington Nationals on Sunday afternoon. It will be up to left-hander Cole Hamels, who has been all over the place since returning from injury at the beginning of this month. He is coming off a quality start against San Francisco and also blanked Milwaukee over 5.0 innings on Aug. 31 prior to a pair of poor outings. Washington right-hander Stephen Stasburg has been similarly up and down in his four most recent appearances. Despite Chicago’s lackluster form, in the past seven days Anthony Rizzo and Nicholas Castellanos are both batting .440 and have hit three home runs apiece. The Cubs are 5-2 in their last seven overall, 40-18 in their last 58 at home, 4-1 in their last five against right-handed starters, 14-6 in Hamels’ last 20 starts, 6-1 in his last seven home starts, and 4-1 in his last five starts against opponents with winning records. Go with CHICAGO.

Over Under Pick

In his previous outing against Chicago this season, Strasburg surrendered just one earned run in 8.0 innings. The Cubs have scored six runs in their last three games. The under is 5-2 in the Nationals’ last seven against left-handed starters and 4-1 in Strasburg’s last five starts against the National League Central. It is also 5-2 in the Cubs’ last seven overall, 6-2 in their last eight against starters with WHIPs under 1.15, and 8-2 in Hamels’ last 10 starts. Look for this one to stay UNDER the total.

Money Line Pick

The Oakland Athletics are rolling along nicely, 21 games over .500 and tied for the second wild-card spot in the American League. They should like their chances of staying hot at the San Francisco Giants’ expense on Sunday. Oakland left-hander Brett Anderson is 10-9 with a 4.06 ERA this season and he has delivered seven quality starts in his last nine appearances. Five different regulars are batting at least .333 over the past week, including right fielder Stephen Piscotty (.462). San Francisco is 0-4 in its last four overall, 0-4 in its last four on the road, 1-4 in its last five against opponents with winning records, and 7-16 in its last 23 at Oakland. The Athletics are 38-17 in their last 55 overall, 36-16 in their last 52 at home, 7-1 in their last eight against right-handed starters, and 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the two teams. Take OAKLAND with confidence.

Over Under Pick

The major-league debut of San Francisco right-hander Logan Webb was an encouraging one last Sunday, when he worked 5.0 innings of one-run baseball at Arizona. Webb’s team was coming off a 1-0 loss to the Cubs prior to this series. The under is 17-8-1 in the Giants’ last 26 overall, 8-3 in their last 11 on the road, and 7-2 in their last nine against the American League West. It is also 3-0-1 in the Athletics’ last four overall, 3-0-1 in their last four at home, and 7-2 in Anderson’s last nine starts. Go with the UNDER.

Two struggling AL teams will face-off here as the Seattle Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays. Neither team will be making the playoffs this year, so they’re both just playing for pride. The Mariners are actually playing pretty well at the moment, having won five of their last six games, while the Blue Jays have lost six in a row. Seattle went 13-2 to start the year and then completely collapsed, but the talent has always been there. They got stuck in a downward spiral, but they were never as bad as their record suggested. They’ve quietly been pretty good over the past month, going 14-11 in their last 25 games. Toronto got all the life sucked out of their team when Marcus Stroman got traded, and there’s no way you could back them on the road here. Take Seattle on the money line.

I’m also playing the over here. The Blue Jays will start Clay Buchholz in this one, who will be making his first appearance since May 5th. Buchholz has been on the injured list for months, so he should be pretty rusty here. He wasn’t any good before going down, as he enters this one with a 6.57 ERA. In his last start before getting placed on the IL, he gave up seven earned runs. Seattle’s lineup was still producing even during their cold stretch, and the over is 4-0 in their last four games. The Mariners will start Marco Gonzales here. Gonzales has been thoroughly mediocre all season long, and owns a middling 4.30 ERA. The over is 4-1 the last five times the Mariners have hosted the Blue Jays, and I expect that trend to continue here.

Money Line Pick

The San Diego Padres will host the Boston Red Sox for the final game of their series here. The Red Sox will go with Brian Johnson here, while the Padres will start Joey Lucchesi. The Red Sox are the defending World Series champions, but they haven’t looked like it this season. They entered Saturday seven games back of the second wild card spot in the AL, and it’s looking like they’re going to miss the playoffs if they don’t go on a run here. The Padres have been competitive this season, which is more than they’ve been able to say in recent years. Lucchesi has been solid this year, and he’s been elite at home. In 13 starts at Petco, he has a 2.91 ERA. The Padres have a huge edge on the mound here, so I think getting them at this short of a price at home is good value.

Over Under Pick

I also like the over in this spot. Johnson has been awful in 2019, entering this one with a 6.58 ERA. He doesn’t pitch deep into games at all, which means we’ll see a lot of this mediocre Boston bullpen here. Not surprisingly, the over is 9-4 in Johnson’s last 13 starts. This San Diego lineup is pretty underrated, and the over is 15-5-2 in their last 22 home games. Lucchesi hasn’t been anything better than average this season, checking in with a 4.20 ERA, so Boston should have some success on offense as well.

Money Line Pick

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees will wrap up their highly anticipated series here. The Yankees took game one while the Dodgers took game two, so this will be the rubber match of the potential World Series preview. The Dodgers will have their longtime ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound in the finale. They’re nearly impossible to beat when Kershaw pitches at home, as they’re 45-10 in his last 55 starts at Dodger Stadium. Conversely the Yankees will start Domingo German, who has been really bad on the road. German has a 2.24 ERA at Yankee Stadium, but that jumps to 5.82 on the road. The Yankees are just 2-6 in their last eight road games, and they’re at a big disadvantage on the mound here. The Dodgers will build on their momentum from Saturday’s thrilling win and take this one relatively easily. Take them on the money line even at a somewhat steep price.

Over Under Pick

I also like the over here. German has very stark home/road splits, so I’d expect him to struggle here in a big game in a foreign environment. The over is 10-3-1 in German’s last 14 road starts, and 5-1 in his last six starts overall. Kershaw has been great this season but oddsmakers might actually be giving him too much credit, as the over is 6-1 in his last seven outings. These are two of the best lineups in the league, but there haven’t been too many fireworks in this series. I think each offense breaks out here, and we should see the highest scoring game of the set.