Matt Selz
F1
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The second race of the 2023 F1 season is upon us on Sunday in Jeddah with the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix. The street course in Jeddah, the Jeddah Corniche Circuit, is known to be one of the fastest street circuits on the schedule. This track has produced some great racing in the last few years and if things hold true, we should be in for a treat again on Sunday.
What does the Jeddah F1 track look like?
The street circuit of Jeddah is a 3.8-mile track built in the Corniche section of Jeddah. Even with 27 turns on the circuit (although only 7 involve braking), it’s still the fastest street circuit of the F1 season. Speeds are blistering, which can also blister the tires. With the distance and relatively wide racing surface there are several places for overtaking chances throughout the race. That makes Saturday’s qualifying session as one of the relatively less important in terms of scoring points by race’s end.
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Betting strategies for the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix
They have made some adjustments to this track over the last few years and that has made some changes to the racing — for the better. We have seen more chances for overtaking and less safety cars at this track due to the widening of some of the corners. That means that while the pole is still important here, you can win from reasonably deep in the field — especially with a great start to the race. As such, while there are clearly favorites for each bet I don’t have to assume they are the favorites. That being said, there is clearly a hierarchy starting to form on the grid this year with Red Bull as the class and Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston Martin as the next group. Keep that in mind when deciding if a team will all of a sudden jump up the hierarchy or not.
F1 Saudi Arabia GP winner predictions
All odds posted are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted
Max Verstappen -360
These odds suck; it’s true. But how are we supposed to make a betting slip without Verstappen on it? He has dominated everything to this point this season and looked like he was out on a Sunday drive for both of the first 2 practices of the weekend. Following his showing last race, several other drivers on the grid all said they would be shocked if Red Bull didn’t win every race this year. These odds work out to $5 in profit for every $18 bet.
Sergio Perez +500
If we’re loving the speed from Versappen, how about taking a shot on his teammate who has also been running second behind all weekend and last week. Let’s be clear: if it comes down to it, Red Bull will favor Verstappen in any strategy calls late in the race or with a safety car. So for Checo to win, he will need to be so far ahead of Verstappen that strategy doesn’t help him or something to go wrong with his teammate.
Fernando Alonso +1100 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
He was the talk last weekend as well and has basically the same speed again this weekend. We’re looking for him on FanDuel for a better return compared to the +950 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The strategy didn’t exactly go his way last race, but there’s hope he can hang closer to Verstappen this time around given how tight the field was in similar conditions to race time in FP2. There’s a reason he’s this long of odds even as the third driver on the board so be cautious with how much we put on Alonso to win.
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Top prop bets for the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix
Double Top-6 Finish: Aston Martin -125
The speed has been great for Aston Martin to start the year. Fernando Alonso finished P3 at Bahrain and is running there again this weekend through the first 2 practices. Now add in the speed for Lance Stroll being at worst seventh on the speed charts and we’ve got a good shot for a double top-6 finish for the up-and-coming Aston Martin squad. Also add in the iffiness that is Ferrari and Mercedes right now and there’s an opening with only Red Bull looking strong.
Alex Albon Top-10 Finish +125
He had a good run a week ago at Bahrain and while this is a different setup of a track, Williams is showing good speed this weekend, too. He ran P14 in FP2, under the lights, but P9 in FP1 during the day. If they can get the setup quicker for the race, which will be under the lights, we’ll see Albon battling for the last couple of points in the F1 standings come the end of the race.
Lance Stroll Fastest Lap +8000
This is a dart throw for late in the race. The flow of the race indicates that Stroll will be in the points but will be looking to steal more points in the F1 standings. Stroll should be called into the pits, late, for a new set of soft tires and a speed run for a shot at the fastest lap. It’s a long shot bet that we should only put a small part of a unit on while it’ll still pay a nice 80x return.
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