Luke Lindholm
The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup knockout stage began on Saturday, but the action continues through Tuesday. During the group stage, I posted a 15-5 record with my FIFA Club World Cup predictions, so you’ll want to see who I’m backing on Monday. Here is the schedule:
- Inter Milan vs Fluminense – 3:00 pm ET, DAZN
- Manchester City vs Al-Hilal – 9:00 pm ET, DAZN
Monday’s action features 2 European, 1 Brazilian and 1 Saudi Arabian squad, so it’s safe to say that these are two unconventional matchups. Inter Milan faced Fluminense in a friendly in 1961, while Manchester City and Al-Hilal also played in a friendly in 2013, so Monday’s tilt will be a new chapter in all 4 clubs’ history. Now that we’ve outlined the history (or lack thereof) between these squads, let’s dive into my FIFA Club World Cup picks for Monday.
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Inter Milan vs Fluminense best bets: Inter Milan 3-Way ML and Under 4.5 Goals (-114)
*Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing*
The opening game on Monday features the winners of Group E, Inter Milan, against the runners-up of Group F, Fluminense. The Italian squad entered this tournament after falling short in multiple competitions this season, as they were runners-up in Serie A and the Champions League, while also exiting the Coppa Italia in the semifinals. To make matters worse, manager Simone Inzaghi left the club after the UCL loss, joining Al-Hilal. However, they’ve shown fight at the FIFA Club World Cup, as they went 2-1-0 on the group stage under newly appointed manager Cristian Chivu. They drew Monterrey 1-1 in their opening game but have since taken down Urawa Reds 2-1 and River Plate 2-0. They allowed just 2 shots on target against River Plate, so they’re playing extremely well right now.
Fluminense enters this game after finishing behind Borussia Dortmund in Group F. Nonetheless, the Brazilian squad is undefeated in this tournament, as they drew Dortmund and Mamelodi Sundowns 0-0 and took down Ulsan HD 4-2. Although they did well to get out of the group, I’m extremely concerned about where goals will come from for Fluminense, as Inter Milan’s back four is better than any team they played in the group stage. Additionally, they were somewhat lucky to advance to the Round of 16, as they mustered just 32% possession against Mamelodi Sundowns and failed to record a single shot on target. They are led by 40-year-old CB Thiago Silva in the back, and while he’s had a historical career, going up against a rejuvenated Inter squad will be difficult.
Inter Milan should take care of business in this one. After an emotional win against River Plate to secure the top spot in the group (2 red cards handed out), I anticipate they’ll come out flying in this one. The Italian squad was embarrassed by Paris Saint-Germain in the UCL Final 5-0, but they’ve completely bounced back under their new manager. Even with their loss to PSG, Inter is 6-3-1 in their last 10 matches. Furthermore, they have 2+ goals in 6 of their previous 8 matches, which will be a problem for Fluminense. Only 5 of the Brazilian’s last 18 games featured 3+ goals, so if Inter strikes twice, I don’t see a way back for the South Americans.
Not only has Fluminense played in low-scoring games lately, but Inter Milan’s victories don’t feature many goals. 10 of their last 11 victories featured fewer than 5 goals, and I foresee this game going the same way. The Italians have more talent from top to bottom, and with Fluminense’s scoring struggles, I can only see this game going one way. Back Inter to win in 90 minutes and tack on the Under 4.5 to make this selection closer to even money.
My Pick: Same Game Parlay – Inter Milan 3-Way ML and Under 4.5 Goals (-114)
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Manchester City vs Al-Hilal predictions: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-105)
*Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing*
The second match on Monday has just as much intrigue as the first, as Manchester City takes on Al-Hilal. Man City finished atop Group G, and they grabbed the bookmakers’ attention in their final group-stage match after dismantling Juventus 5-2. They now have the shortest odds of winning the FIFA Club World Cup, but Pep Guardiola’s squad will have their hands full with this Al-Hilal squad. Nonetheless, the Citizens are 3-0-0 in this tournament and have the most goals with 13. They opened the tournament with a 2-0 victory against Wydad before destroying Al Ain 6-0. The scariest part is that Erling Haaland only has 2 goals, so they’re truly humming from all directions.
Al-Hilal shouldn’t be taken lightly in this game, as they carry a variety of players who could still make a difference for European squads. Their midfield is held down by Ruben Neves and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, and they have former Man City RB Joao Cancelo in addition to Renan Lodi and Kalidou Koulibaly in their back four. They opened up the tournament by drawing Real Madrid 1-1 before also drawing RB Salzburg 0-0. However, they won their final group-stage match against Pachuca 2-0, as I nailed my best bet for that contest. Their defense is tough to break down, but it’s hard to picture them pitching a shutout against this Man City side.
Although Al-Hilal failed to score in their second match, they tallied 1.41 xG against Salzburg, which was their lowest xG of the 3 games. It’s safe to say that they’re creating chances, and I expect them to break down City’s back four at some point in this game. Additionally, Pep Guardiola’s team had allowed a goal in 17 of their final 25 matches of the 2024/25 season. Although they shut out Al Ain (609th per OptaRankings) and Wyad (391st per OptaRankings), those two squads are nowhere near Al-Hilal (75th per OptaRankings).
The Saudi Arabian squad has scored in all 34 games in their domestic league this past season, and while Man City’s defense is 2 steps above any of those squads, it’s hard to deny a team used to scoring. There is a mental aspect of scoring, and I don’t expect Al-Hilal will be denied on Monday. Therefore, I’ll back both teams to score as my best bet in the Manchester City vs Al-Hilal match on Monday.
My Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-105)
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