Soccer Picks

The USMNT sneaked past Costa Rica in the quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup, with goalkeeper Matt Freese the hero in the penalty shootout after a 2-2 tie. Mauricio Pochettino’s men have not looked comfortable defensively recently, losing 4-0 to Switzerland and conceding 3 to Costa Rica and Haiti. They face a Guatemala side who managed to beat Canada on penalties in the last 8 after the game finished 1-1 in regulation, and Los Chapines could get on the scoresheet once more against USA. However the USMNT have won 7 of the last 8 head-to-heads and their attacking talents should be the difference in this one.

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Mexico have won the CONCACAF Gold Cup a record 9 times and the defending champions are heavy favorites to reach another final when they take on Honduras in this semifinal. El Tri have only conceded 2 goals, both in their opening game against the Dominican Republic, and beat Saudi Arabia 2-0 in the quarterfinals. Honduras needed a penalty shootout to squeeze past Panama in the last 8 and were beaten 6-0 by Canada earlier in the tournament. Mexico’s star striker Raul Jimenez only has 1 goal at the tournament so far but he has taken 9 shots, 4 of which have been on target, and looks the likeliest player to breach the Honduras defense.

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New York City FC have won 5 of the last 6 MLS meetings with Toronto FC and they have been solid in NYC this season, winning 7 of their 10 home games. Toronto have lost 6 of their last 10 games, including a 1-0 defeat in the reverse matchup. NYCFC should be able to get back on track after a surprise loss to Montreal last Saturday.

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Fluminense and Al-Hilal both pulled off major upsets in the Club World Cup Round of 16 and now the unlikely pair are just 2 games from the final. Flu beat Champions League runners-up Inter 2-0 in the Last 16, extending their unbeaten run to 10 games after they finished 2nd in Group F behind Borussia Dortmund.

Al-Hilal pulled off arguably an even bigger shock when beating Manchester City 4-3 in their Round of 16 game, becoming the first Asian team to beat a European club in the history of this competition. They generated 3.16 Expected Goals tally in that game, the 3rd-most Expected Goals conceded by Manchester City when managed by Pep Guardiola. The Saudi club created 7 big chances in this game and could outscore a Fluminense team that has only netted 6 times in 4 matches at the tournament. Al-Hilal’s attacking stars could prove the difference.

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Palmeiras and Chelsea meet in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Club World Cup on Friday night after both teams came through stern tests in the Round of 16. Chelsea needed extra time to overcome Benfica and they ultimately ran out 4-1 winners after a 1-1 draw in 90 minutes. Palmeiras also had to come through additional time in their victory over Brazilian rivals Botafogo, grinding out a 1-0 success after the game finished goalless in normal time.

Palmeiras are one of the powerhouses of South American football but they are yet to get going in the CWC, with 3 draws from 4 games. The Verdao look backable as underdogs against Chelsea, however, as the Blues have already lost to Brazilian opposition in this competition as they went down 3-1 to Flamengo in the group stage. 

Chelsea had a gruelling season in the Premier League and Europe before heading to this competition and the fact Palmeiras are a little fresher, with their Serie A campaign still ongoing, could come into play here — particularly after both came through extra time in the previous round. Backing Palmeiras to win at a big price is tempting, but the better angle could be taking a chance on them to qualify by any method due to their tendency to finish games level after 90 minutes.

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Paris Saint-Germain brushed aside Inter Miami 4-0 in the Round of 16 and can follow that up by taking out Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals. The result probably won’t be quite so emphatic, but PSG look serious contenders at the Club World Cup, whereas Bayern have struggled to find any real rhythm. The German champions faced part-time opposition Auckland City and then struggled to see off an out-of-sorts Boca Juniors in the group stages before losing to Benfica. Bayern rode their luck in a 4-2 Last 16 win over Flamengo and a similar level of performance is unlikely to be enough against the all-conquering Parisians.

In contrast, PSG have essentially picked up where they left off at the end of the season in Europe — which of course culminated with a 5-0 win over Inter Milan in the Champions League final. Luis Enrique’s team crushed Atletico Madrid 4-0 and also have a pair of routine wins over MLS opposition. They did suffer a surprise loss to Botafogo, but that looks like a freak result rather than a sign of any kind of dip in form. PSG have multiple players who can score and it is hard to see Bayern keeping this slick outfit quiet. The French champions are operating on a higher level than their Bavarian opponents right now and getting +120 odds for a straightforward win for PSG looks the standout bet in this quarterfinal tie.

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Real Madrid have managed to reach the quarterfinals of the Club World Cup without really hitting top gear but they should still be able to get past Borussia Dortmund when the 2 face off at MetLife Stadium. Los Blancos are still getting used to new coach Xabi Alonso’s system but did manage 21 shots in their 1-0 win over Juventus last time out. Star striker Kylian Mbappe also recovered from his illness to feature in that game and could play a leading role in this clash.

Dortmund have progressed fairly comfortably to this stage but they have had an easy route through, beating Mamelodi Sundowns, Ulsan HD and drawing with Fluminense before squeezing past Mexican club Monterrey 2-1 in the Round of 16. Real Madrid are a significant step up in quality and BVB may struggle to match that. Los Blancos won 5-2 when these 2 teams met back in November in the Champions League and have won the last 4 meetings between these 2.

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