Soccer Picks

Aston Villa has won 9 straight Premier League home games and could extend that sequence by defeating Brighton on Saturday. Last season was a success story for both Villa and Brighton, who finished 7th and 6th respectively in the final standings. Both clubs are off to strong starts in 2023-24 too, with Villa 6th after 4 wins in 6 games and Brighton 3 places higher with 15 points from 6 games.

Brighton is the highest-scoring team in the Premier League with 18 goals, but is yet to post a shutout this season and that defensive fragility was on show over the weekend as the Seagulls claimed a rather fortunate 3-1 success at home to Bournemouth. Villa was more impressive with a 1-0 road win at Chelsea and has outstanding home form. Unai Emery’s team have been faultless at Villa Park since a 4-2 February loss to Arsenal and can continue its hot streak, although taking the safety net of a tie-no-bet wager against strong opposition makes sense.

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Entertainment has been the overriding theme in Arsenal’s games this season and the goals could flow again when the Gunners travel to Bournemouth on Saturday.

The Cherries have looked vibrant with the ball under new coach Andoni Iraola, but they’ve also been worryingly open without it and have already been on the end of a couple of harsh lessons. That could again be the case given the firepower in Arsenal’s ranks. I’ll take over 3.5 goals.

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Everton got up and running for the season with a 3-1 victory at Brentford in the Premier League last weekend and the Toffees will want to build on that against relegation rival Luton.

The Hatters finally picked up their first point of the season at home to Wolves and, while EPL survival still looks be a tall order, there have been some signs of improvement from the newcomers. Luton had 20 shots to Wolves’s 3 in that game and can be backed to deny Everton a shutout.

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Manchester United stopped its skid with a 1-0 win at Burnley last week, but it was hardly a vintage display from the Red Devils, who had fewer shots and less possession than the Clarets.

That makes Erik ten Hag’s team extremely hard to support at their current odds to beat Crystal Palace on Saturday. Four of the teams’ last 5 EPL meetings have produced no more than 2 goals and it could pay to back another low-scoring game between them.

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Newcastle had little trouble brushing aside one promoted club in Sheffield United on Sunday, and the Magpies can register another comfortable success when promoted team Burnley visits this Saturday.

The home team has rediscovered the defensive steel that saw them post 14 shutouts last season, which may be bad news for a Clarets side who have scored only 4 goals in the league this season.

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Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle are the only teams to leave the London Stadium with 3 points in 2023 and it’s difficult to see Sheffield United joining that select list.

The Blades were thumped 8-0 by Newcastle last Sunday and a West Ham team smarting from a defeat at Liverpool is unlikely to show much sympathy. The Hammers beat Chelsea 3-1 in their first home league game this season and a repeat of that scoreline has good value.

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Manchester City’s perfect Premier League record remains intact after a 2-0 victory over Nottingham Forest, and the EPL champions should have little trouble making it 7 straight league wins against Wolves. 

City won both of last term’s meetings with Wolves 3-0, and won 5-1 at Molineux the season before. With that in mind, I’m taking at least 4 goals to be scored in this match.

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After disappointing last season, Tottenham and Liverpool both remain unbeaten in the EPL this time around and all the signs are there for an exciting game in London on Saturday.

Liverpool is on a 6-game winning streak while Spurshave been transformed into an entertaining outfit by new manager Ange Postecoglou, will have taken great heart from Sunday’s 2-2 tie at Arsenal. They have scored at least twice in each of their league games under the Australian and will be optimistic as Heung-Min Son has filled the gap left by Harry Kane and James Maddison has provided a creative spark. It is an enticing game that should not disappoint, so I’m taking over 3.5 goals.

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For perhaps the first time since guiding Brentford into the Premier League, Bees boss Thomas Frank has some questions to answer after his team slumped to a 3-1 home loss to previously winless Everton last week. Frank will be hoping that defeat was just an off-day for his team, but Brentford has won only 1 of 6 EPL games and a trip to the City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest isn’t the easiest road assignment. Forest has already played Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City this season, so to have 7 points on the board after 6 games is a testament to the team’s progress.

Forest won at Chelsea and troubled the other three heavyweights in losses, and has 4 points from 2 home games this season, beating Sheffield United 2-1 and drawing 1-1 with Burnley. Forest did most of its good work last season at the City Ground, gaining 30 of its 38 points on home turf. That included a 2-2 tie with Brentford but Forest may have the edge this time.

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Chelsea has made its worst start to a season since 1978 and might have to settle for a point against neighbors Fulham at Craven Cottage on Monday. Problems are piling up for Blues coach Mauricio Pochettino after his team’s 1-0 home loss to Aston Villa. Pochettino’s selections have been complicated by an extensive injury list and he will be forced into at least two enforced changes for this game as striker Nicolas Jackson and right-back Malo Gusto are suspended. Chelsea created some decent chances against Villa but lacked a killer instinct and is now in 14th place with just 5 points from 6 games.

Fulham is only 3 points better off, but earned a point from a 0-0 tie at Crystal Palace with its third shutout of the season. The Cottagers are off to a reasonably solid start and can add another point in this London derby.

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This midweek MLS match looks likely to be high-scoring. There have been over 2.5 goals in 7 of the Philadelphia Union’s last 9 league games and 9 of their 14 MLS home games this season. It’s 5 league games since FC Dallas last recorded a shutout and 5 of the Union’s last 6 MLS matches have produced 4 or more goals.

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Lionel Messi was signed to bring success to Inter Miami and it could happen at the earlier possible opportunity on Wednesday night when the Herons take on the Houston Dynamo in the final of the Lamar Hunt US Open Cup. The issue is, Messi himself is not guaranteed to be in the lineup for the final after missing the team’s MLS regular-season game on Saturday due to a hamstring injury and also sitting out practice in preparation for this clash. For that reason, bettors are advised to leave it as late as possible before locking in any bets to have full knowledge of Messi’s status.

The situation means there are some varied prices on the game and the prospect of Messi missing the match seems real with an important league game against New York City — one of the teams Miami needs to overhaul to have a shot at making the playoffs — coming up next. That has led to the goals projections for the game potentially being too high and there is value on under 2.5 goals in regular time at +150 odds. The teams’ 3 meetings this season have included a 1-0 win for each team, plus a 3-1 win for Houston. Another cagey affair looks possible given the high stakes, and the potentially deflated Miami fanbase if Messi does not make the lineup.

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The Vancouver Whitecaps have lost their last two road games but they have a great chance to snap that streak with a win at struggling Colorado. The Rapids are bottom of the MLS Western Conference with only 4 wins from 29 games. It could still be an entertaining game, as there have been over 2.5 goals in 5 of Colorados’ last 6 MLS games.

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