Luke Lindholm
The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup group stage is officially in the books, and 16 teams remain. Saturday marks the commencement of the knockout stage, and we have 2 matchups worth tuning in for. I went 15-5 with my FIFA Club WC best bets in the group stage and have two more picks for Saturday’s slate. Remember, you can fade or follow any of my best at multiple soccer betting sites, and Saturday’s schedule is here:
- Palmeiras vs Botafogo – 12:00 pm ET, TNT
- Benfica vs Chelsea – 4:00 pm ET, DAZN
The opening match features 2 Brazilian sides, while the afternoon game has 2 European squads with a storied history. Without further ado, let’s dive into my FIFA Club World Cup predictions for the opening Round of 16 matches.
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Palmeiras vs Botafogo best bet: Botafogo +0.5 and Under 3.5 Goals (-120)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
The first match on Saturday pits 2 squads extremely familiar with one another. Both Brazilian squads play in Série A, as Palmeiras is currently in 4th place with 22 points, while Botafogo sits in 8th with 18 points. The Sao Paolo club won Group A over Inter Miami, FC Porto and Al Ahly, while Botafogo grabbed 2nd in Group B behind Paris Saint-Germain but ahead of Atlético Madrid and the Seattle Sounders. The Rio de Janeiro squad has the tournament’s biggest upset thus far, as they beat PSG 1-0 in their second game.
Palmeiras won Group A, but they did it by the skin of their teeth. After drawing Porto 0-0 in the opening match, they took down Al Ahly 2-0. However, Inter Miami jumped out to an early 2-0 lead in the final match, but the Brazilians rallied in the final 10 minutes, scoring in the 80th and 87th minute to win the group on goal differential. Unless you’re a fan of the Brazilian league, you likely haven’t heard of many players on this Palmeiras squad, but you should soon know Estêvão, the 18-year-old wonderkid who was signed by Chelsea this summer. He hasn’t performed extremely well at this tournament, but he can take over a game and be the difference between a win and a loss.
Teams will often take a more conservative approach whenever they arrive at the knockout stage of a major tournament. Both teams are essentially starting from ground zero, and the Under feels like a foregone conclusion in this game. Botafogo’s 3 matches averaged 1.67 goals, while Palmeiras’ games finished with 2.0 goals per contest. Additionally, each of Palmeiras’ 11 games in Série A have finished with fewer than 4 goals this season, and 8 of Botafogo’s 11 matches in the Brazilian league all finished with less than 4 scores.
These two squads faced off in Matchday 1 this season, ending in a 0-0 draw. At this tournament, Botafogo played in a much tougher group than Palmeiras, and I wasn’t overly impressed with Palmeiras’ performance in Group A. Therefore, I expect a low-scoring affair, and without very little separating these squads, I’ll tack on Botafogo to win in 90 minutes or push this game to extra time.
My Pick: Same Game Parlay – Botafogo +0.5 and Under 3.5 Goals (-120)
Read our full Palmeiras vs Botafogo prediction
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Benfica vs Chelsea prediction: Over 1.5 Goals and Ángel Di María to Record 2+ Shots (-106)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The second game pits 2 European teams against each other, as the winners of Group C, Benfica, take on the runners-up in Group D, Chelsea. I expected these 2 teams to face off in the Round of 16 entering the tournament, but not in this manner. Chelsea were the favorites to win Group D, while Benfica had the 2nd shortest odds of winning Group C behind Bayern Munich. However, the Portuguese squad beat Bayern 1-0 in the final match, and Chelsea fell to Flamengo 3-1, and both results are just behind the Botafogo win over PSG in terms of upsets. Benfica may have shut out the Germans, but they can thank GK Anatoliy Trubin, as the Ukrainian made some huge saves down the stretch to keep the shutout.
Outside the Flamengo match, Chelsea took care of LAFC and ES Tunis easily, as the English squad outscored those two teams 5-0. After the loss, Enzo Maresca’s squad put in a full 90 minutes against the Tunisian side and finally looked like any hangover from their Europa Conference League title subsided. Enzo Fernandes has been the best player for this squad at the tournament, but I’m interested in seeing whether Maresca decides to go with Nicolas Jackson or Liam Delap up top. Jackson picked up a red card against Flamengo, and Delap scored his first goal as a Blue in his absence, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he sticks with their new signing from Ipswich.
Benfica has the experience and talent to get by Chelsea, but the Blues are more talented overall. I expect the Portuguese side to make things difficult for the English, and they’re playing extremely well right now. After going down 2-0 against Boca Juniors in their opening game, they stormed back to tie the game 2-2 and then picked up 2 wins with a +7 goal differential. One of the main men for Benfica is 37-year-old Ángel Di María, who has recorded 2+ shots in each of Benfica’s group-stage matches and 7 of their last 10 overall. I expect him to keep this trend going against Chelsea.
With Di María putting pressure on Chelsea’s back four, I anticipate this game will have goals. I already stated that teams tend to be more conservative in the Round of 16, but these are two squads known for scoring. Benfica beat Bayern 1-0, but the combined xG in that contest was 2.41 and have seen 2+ goals in 14 of their last 15 matches overall. Additionally, Chelsea’s 3 group-stage games averaged 3.0 goals, and 8 of their previous 10 contests outside the Premier League finished with 2+ goals. Expect Di Maria to record 2 shots as the game finishes with more than a single goal.
My Pick: Same Game Parlay – Ángel Di María to Record 2+ Shots and Over 1.5 Goals (-106)
Read our full Benfica vs Chelsea prediction
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