FireKeepers Casino 400 NASCAR betting preview and best bets: They may be chasing Ross Chastain

Ross Chastain pilots the #42 Chevy for Chip Ganassi
Photo of Matt Selz

Matt Selz

NASCAR · 4 days ago

Show Bio

NASCAR handicapper for Pickswise, looking to give you winners throughout the season!

The Irish Hills part of Michigan is filled with rolling hills and lush greenery. One weekend a year, though, the village of Brooklyn, Michigan stirs to life as host of the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. The 2-mile, D-shaped oval is known as one of the fastest tracks on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

Michigan International Speedway betting strategies

There are only four races left in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season this year. What can we do with that info? Well, there are 14 winners so far in the 2022 season and only 16 drivers make it into the playoffs. In the last nine races at Michigan, the winner of the race has been a driver who already won earlier in the year. That indicates that we’ll see a repeat winner if that trend holds.

The 2-mile layout here has solid banking of 16 degrees in the corners and 12 degrees on the front stretch which lets speed build throughout a lap. The drivers that can drive the smoothest lines will keep their speed up the best. That speed is also why five of the last six races here have been won from the top-three spots in the grid. The only outlier was a driver winning from P20, although that was due to an inverting the top half of the field from the race the day before.

One last thing to keep in mind this weekend is that Ford puts a lot of importance on this race with their world headquarters just down the road from the track. That shows with 11 of the last 20 races being won by Ford — including seven straight.

FireKeepers Casino 400 outright winner best bets

Odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Kyle Larson (+700)

Larson got the nickname Two-Mile Kyle because the first handful of wins he posted in the Cup series were at 2-mile tracks, including three at Michigan. He won at Auto Club earlier in the year, though didn’t have the fastest car, then did well at Vegas, Kansas, and dominated the second half of the Charlotte race. All of those are comparable tracks. It’s time for Larson to kick on the mojo for the playoffs, so why not at a track that he’s won at three times?

Favorite Bet: Ross Chastain (+900)

Chastain has been fast everywhere. It’s basically that simple. He dominated Vegas before a tire issue ended his day. Then came Kansas and a Charlotte race he also controlled from start to finish. Chastain will be wanting to get a better finish back in column after the penalty he took at Indy Road last week. As long as he keeps the car clean, and avoids retaliation, he should be a factor for the lead late on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick (+2500)

Harvick is in a weird spot this weekend. Scroll up a bit in this article and you’ll see where I mention that the last nine races at Michigan have seen winners who have already won that year. That’s not Harvick. However, Harvick has won the last three races here, even when things weren’t great for him last year. He has been showing very good speed of late, he’s in a Ford, and needs a win to solidify his playoff spot. This is likely the last best shot for him to clinch a spot, so why not bet a three-time winner at a 25x return?

Longshot: Aric Almirola (+10000)

Hold up; haven’t we only been using Almirola at shorter, flatter tracks? Why yes; yes we have. This decidedly isn’t that type of track so why is he here? Well, that’s just the thing, we can’t pigeonhole people completely in NASCAR. He has finished in the top six here a few times in recent years and Almirola was fast at similar tracks earlier this year. He clearly needs help for the win, firstly speed, and secondly that everything falls in his favor. At these odds though that’s always what we need and there are plenty of drivers in this spot that don’t have his track history.

Best prop bets for Michigan

Aric Almirola top-10 finish (+350)

This comes down to hedging the bet to win. Four of his seven top-11 finishes this year have come at non-drafting intermediate tracks that compare to Michigan. It’s those results we are banking on for this bet as he tries to keep his playoff bubble hopes alive.

Brad Keselowski top-10 finish (+350)

Michigan is his home track. He has always been a threat here for good finishes despite not having a win here yet. Luckily for us we don’t need a win, we just need a top-10 finish from the Michigander, something he’s done 13 times in 24 races here. It’s been an up-and-down season for Keselowski but the speed has been building of late and has routinely been a top-10 car for chunks of races. If we’d like to go with a more consistent similar car, his teammate Chris Buescher is having a career year in terms of top-10s.

Kevin Harvick top Ford (+500)

There is not another Ford driver with more top-10s this year than Harvick. Now comes a track he’s won at three-straight times and we’re getting a 5x return on him simply being the first Ford to cross the line? It’s not hard to see why this bet makes sense. That doesn’t even include the fact that the 4-car has been a lot racier in the last few races, as well.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. top-10 finish (+350)

This is an interesting bet. We don’t think of Stenhouse as a guy for intermediate tracks…but this year we should be. Four of his five top 10s in points races have been at non-drafting intermediate tracks that compare to Michigan. That’s enough for me to put some money on a bet DraftKings is giving odds of hitting at 22 percent. Stenhouse has pulled that feat off between 50-57 percent depending on what you count as an intermediate track.

Our expert NASCAR handicappers provide race analysis, betting advice and NASCAR Predictions and NASCAR Picks on every race. Check out our latest NASCAR Picks today!

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.