Ricky Dimon
The proverbial second week of the French Open is upon us, with fourth-round competition beginning on Sunday. This is when the top players could really start to be tested – including Aryna Sabalenka, who is going up against Amanda Anisimova. On the men’s side, Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton are battling for a quarterfinal spot.
Let’s take a look at my best bets on the Day 8 schedule.
Ben Shelton Over 11.5 games won vs Carlos Alcaraz (-130)
Shelton is priced as too big of an underdog in this matchup. Yes, Alcaraz is the defending Roland Garros champion and he has already won clay-court titles this spring in Monte-Carlo and Rome. Still, the Spaniard rarely blows away opponents – at least capable ones like Shelton – in the fashion that a more clinical Jannik Sinner disposed of Jiri Lehecka on Saturday. Unlike Sinner, Alcaraz generally goes through some valleys in best-of-5 matches. Those hiccups alone should be enough to hand Shelton plenty of games. Moreover, the American in his own right can be competitive. He wields one of the biggest serves in the sport, so he isn’t easy to break even on clay. Shelton could lose in straight sets with 1 break in each – something like 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 – and still cover this number. But the world #13 has a great chance to win a set and perhaps even more. He is well rested after getting a walkover in round 2 (Hugo Gaston withdrew due to injury) and then destroying Matteo Gigante on Friday.
Amanda Anisimova +5.5 games over Aryna Sabalenka (-132)
The Shelton number is mispriced to a marginal extent, giving him good value. The Sabalenka vs Anisimova odds are wildly mispriced, giving the American great value. It is true that Sabalenka is the #1 player in the world, which is why the public will almost blindly back her at the window regardless of the circumstances. Digging deep into this match, however, it becomes clear that Anisimova is in with a real chance. The underdog improbably leads their head-to-head series 5-2 after crushing Sabalenka 6-4, 6-2 at last summer’s 1000-point tournament in Toronto. Anisimova also holds a 3-2 advantage over the Belarusian on clay. In 4 previous clay-court encounters, not once has Sabalenka prevailed in straight sets. It should also be noted that clay is the top seed’s least favorite surface. She has never advanced to the Roland Garros final and this is the lone Grand Slam at which she has not reached the semis at least twice. I wouldn’t be shocked if Anisimova wins this one outright.
Jasmine Paolini ML over Elina Svitolina (-110)
Other than a difficult draw, I love everything about Paolini’s chances at the French Open. The Italian has excelled at the slams dating back to last spring, she is awesome on clay and she is in peak form right now. Paolini finished runner-up at both the French Open and Wimbledon in 2024, plus she is coming off a 1000-point title in Rome and has been mostly dominant so far in Paris. Svitolina, who stands in the world #3’s way of the quarterfinals, is now easy out. However, the Ukrainian’s last 4 sets resulted in scorelines of 7-6, 7-5, 7-6, and 7-6 against unspectacular competition (Anna Bondar and Bernarda Pera). She hasn’t been cruising like Paolini. I’ll happily back Paolini in a match that is priced as a tossup.
