Following a wildly entertaining 2 days of third-round competition at the French Open, it’s on to the fourth round on Sunday. Spots in the quarterfinals will start being handed out, so we are approaching the business end of what has already been a crazy tournament – especially on the men’s side. Among those taking the court on Sunday are Iga Swiatek, Elina Svitolina, Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud and Joao Fonseca.
I’m 7-2 over the past 3 days, so let’s keep the momentum going with my best bets on the Day 8 schedule.
Parlay: Iga Swiatek ML over Marta Kostyuk and Rafael Jodar ML over Pablo Carreno Busta (-120)
Swiatek is sweeping the head-to-head series against Kostyuk 3-0, and no match has been close. The Pole’s victories have come by scorelines 6-3, 6-4 (2021 Roland Garros), 6-2, 6-1 (2024 Indian Wells), and 6-2, 6-2 (2024 Cincinnati). Kostyuk is a much-improved player at this point in time, but asking her to suddenly get over the hump against a 4-time RG champion in RG is probably too much. Swiatek has not yet dropped a set at this tournament — not even close, really. The world #3 may not be in absolute peak form this year, but she is looking like her normal self on her French Open stomping grounds. Meanwhile, Jodar vs Carreno Busta should not be competitive. Carreno Busta did very well to reach round 4, but this is just a mismatch on paper between the 2 Spanish countrymen — one 19 and the other an injury-plagued 34-year-old. Jodar is red hot right now. His streak has every reason to continue.
Andrey Rublev vs Jakub Mensik Over 38.5 games (-115)
Rublev just played a match that lasted 38 games even though he required the minimum 3 sets, defeating Nuno Borges 7-5, 7-6(2), 7-6(2) in round 3. That was preceded by a pair of 4-setters, so Rublev is playing well enough but not exactly taking care of opponents in convincing fashion. Mensik is on his second life at the French Open after surviving a marathon against Mariano Navone 13-11 in a fifth-set tiebreaker on Wednesday. In 2 previous head-to-head encounters between these 2 players, Rublev and Mensik played a 2-setter that produced 23 games (Doha 2024) and a 3-setter (Shanghai 2024) that went to 32 games. Another competitive contest should be in the cards for this weekend in Paris.
Elina Svitolina ML over Belinda Bencic (-164)
Svitolina leads the head-to-head series 4-2 and has won 4 straight over Bencic. There is no reason to think that the tide is suddenly going to turn on Sunday – not with the way Svitolina is playing these days. The Ukrainian is 12-2 on clay this spring with a 1000-point title in Rome, which means she is currently riding a 9-match winning streak. Although both women are all-court players, clay probably gives Svitolina even more of an edge. She really has pretty much every advantage in this matchup.
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