Ricky Dimon
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By the time play ends on Saturday night, we’ll be into the proverbial second week of the tennis season’s second Grand Slam. The remaining 4th-round spots will be up for grabs at the French Open, where Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev and Aryna Sabalenka are among those looking to advance. Let’s take a look at the French Open best bets to be made on the Day 7 schedule.
Parlay: Elina Svitolina over Ana Bogdan and Daniil Medvedev over Tomas Machac (-120)
Gael Monfils may be out of the tournament, much to the chagrin of the French fans. However, his wife is alive and well in the women’s draw. Elina Svitolina is 2 wins away from reaching a Grand Slam quarterfinal for the 11th time in her career (she has also advanced to semifinals on 3 occasions). Ana Bogdan, on the other hand, has never gotten out of the 3rd round at a major in her entire career.
Meanwhile, Daniil Medvedev is looking great – even on his worst surface. Looking for a 2nd French Open quarterfinal appearance, the Russian has dropped just 1 set through 2 rounds. He should be in good shape to dominate again, as Tomas Machac has to be fatigued. The Czech played in the Geneva final last weekend and is now coming off a 5-setter against Mariano Navone on Thursday.
Peyton Stearns +4.5 games over Mirra Andreeva (-105)
Mirra Andreeva may be a future Grand Slam champion, but she is just 17 years old and there’s no way I’m giving 4.5 games behind a teenager to an opponent who is playing as well as Peyton Stearns is at the moment. The American just won a WTA title in Rabat, Morocco last week and in the French Open second round she destroyed Daria Kasatkina – among the best clay-court players on tour – 7-5, 6-2. Andreeva needed 3 tight sets to get past Victoria Azarenka late on Thursday night (actually Friday morning), so both mental and physical fatigue could be factors. The Russian recently fared well in Madrid (quarterfinals) but has otherwise been unspectacular this season. I think Stearns even has a good chance to win this one outright.
Aryna Sabalenka -1.5 sets over Paula Badosa (-145)
This is an intriguing matchup on the surface because they are best friends and Paula Badosa – even though she is a significant underdog – is a former #2 player in the world. Looking deeper, however, Aryna Sabalenka should be an even bigger favorite and will likely cruise in straight sets. The Belarusian is a 2-time major winner (including at this year’s Australian Open) and comes in at #2 in the rankings. Only top-ranked Iga Swiatek has been better than Sabalenka on clay this spring. Meanwhile, Badosa is on the comeback trail from all kinds of physical issues in recent years and required 3 sets in each of her first 2 matches this fortnight. Simply asking her to be competitive against Sabalenka is probably too much.
