Golf picks: Mexico Open predictions & best bets from Joe Champion

After Hideki Matsuyama’s final-round masterclass at the Genesis Invitational, the PGA Tour’s leading lights have almost all decided to take a week off as the circuit heads south for the Mexico Open.

Tony Finau upstaged Jon Rahm in Mexico last season and with the Spaniard now plying his trade on the LIV Tour, it’s up to the 2023 champion to assume favoritism for the 2024 tournament.

The Utah giant clearly relishes Vidanta Vallarta, a Greg Norman design which features super-wide fairways and minimal rough, and the weather forecast this week suggests that big hitters could again take this course apart.

Mexico Open golf picks and predictions

Nicolai Hojgaard (+1800)

Odds generally available at time of publishing.

Finau deserves to be the favorite but world number 34 Nicolai Hojgaard has the potential to become a PGA Tour star and he looks the best betting option.

After winning the DP World Tour Championship in November, the Dane produced a marvelous performance on his first start of the PGA Tour season when he finished runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open. Hojgaard has also posted respectable efforts in back-to-back Signature Events, finishing 31st at Pebble Beach and 39th in the Genesis Invitational, both times on his debut at long-established PGA Tour venues.

That isn’t an issue at Vidanta Vallarta, where the Dane finished 33rd last season. That was a solid effort and he has since become an increasingly assured operator. He could destroy this layout.

Maverick McNealy (+6600)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

With coastal form a big plus, Maverick McNealy, who honed his skills at Pebble Beach as a child, looks a contender as he bids to build on his sixth-place finish in Phoenix last time out.

McNealy has posted top-ten finishes at Pebble (twice), the Heritage and the Sony Open in his career while he’s also finished 26th, 12th and 11th at Norman-designed El Camaleon, a former PGA Tour in Mexico.

Cameron Champ (+6000)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Form figures of MC-MC-MC-MC do not scream winner-in-waiting but Cameron Champ loves this course, finishing in 6th and 8th place respectively in each of the last two Mexico Opens. 

The unpredictable 3-time PGA Tour winner has averaged 69.6 from his last 5 rounds so he might not be as far away as his recent record suggests. 

Sam Stevens (+8000)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Sam Stevens is another to excel at a Norman course, finishing runner-up at TPC San Antonio in last season’s Texas Open. He also finished third by the coast in the Dominican Republic last season and has been solid in four PGA Tour appearances this year.