IndyCar Honda Indy Toronto race predictions, odds and best bets: Herta can win from pole position

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Matt Selz

IndyCar · 3 weeks ago

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NASCAR handicapper for Pickswise, looking to give you winners throughout the season!

Following an off week, the IndyCar Series is back and this time north of the border in Toronto. For the first time since 2019, the streets of Toronto will be alive with open-wheel racing on Sunday for the Honda Indy Toronto. The racing is fast and furious on this track which makes it all the more exciting.

Let’s take a look at the track layout for the temporary street circuit in downtown Toronto and some betting strategies for the race. Then we will look at the top outright winner bets and prop bets for Sunday’s festivities.

Honda Indy Toronto circuit layout and betting guide

The Toronto street course is a tidy 1.78-mile layout with 11 turns including a 90-degree Turn 3. The short track means that there are going to be a fair bit of laps in Sunday’s race at 85 for the scheduled distance. It also means that lap traffic will be an issue very quickly in the runs as the drivers where all in the 1:00 to 1:02 range for race pace in practice. The other thing to watch out for is the walls. That seems like an obvious statement right but, as is typical with city circuits, there are walls tight to the racing surface that can wreak havoc on the drivers. We saw plenty of drivers brushing, rubbing, or straight up hitting, the walls in practice and if that happens a race, their day will be over.

Best outright bets for Honda Indy Toronto

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Colton Herta +400

Herta is on the pole and that should be good enough. Additionally, though, he also put down the fastest lap in Practice 2 and was just a quarter of a second off the pace in Practice 1. Herta has looked very good at most of the street circuits this year and is fresh off the positive test session for McLaren F1 he had earlier this week. We have been waiting for a second win for Herta this year; Sunday could be it.

Scott Dixon +550

There isn’t a driver in the field with a better resume here than Dixon. He is always battling for top-5 finishes and he won the race in the second-to-last trip to Toronto in 2018. Dixon will be rolling off P2 in the grid after a great showing in qualifying. While the practice speeds were a tad slower than that, he has gotten faster each time on the track all weekend. One final note, the driver starting P2 this year has already won four times.

Marcus Ericsson +1200

Ericsson, the championship leader on the year, ran P4 in the first practice and then P2 in the second. The only reason he wasn’t in the Firestone Fast 6 for qualifying was a tiny mistake on his hot lap. He’s had trouble getting the practice speed to show up in races so far this year but, he has yet to show this consistent of practice speed. That could be the change in mojo Ericsson has been looking for on street circuits.

David Malukas +2500

Yes, he’s a rookie and this is a tough track as a rookie. However, Malukas has gotten faster each time he has hit the track this weekend and cracked the top 6 in qualifying. If he can keep the consistency going this weekend and keep the car clean, he should be there late to compete. That is assuming he catches a few breaks and a good pit strategy. The speed is there for him to capitalize on.

Best prop bets for Honda Indy Toronto

Scott Dixon top-5 finish -130

I mentioned above that Dixon has a great record here. Part of that is how many top-5 finishes he’s had and how consistently he’s finished that highly. Dixon loves this layout and knows how to attack the track better than almost anyone in the field this week. Couple that with him starting P2 and we’ve got a hittable prop laid out right in front of us.

Marcus Ericsson top-5 finish +120

Betting a driver to finish top 5 is a decent way to hedge the outright winner pick or to increase your winnings if they happen to win. Ericsson is a good example of this. He is starting outside the top 5 but has the speed to get back into it not to mention his pit crew has been good about maintaining his track position as well. Clearly the win would be a great return, but getting more than double your money for him simply having to gain a handful of spots is nice too.

Christian Lundgaard top-5 finish (+800)

The riskiest prop of the week. He will be starting P10 in the grid on Sunday but he did flash top-five speed in Practice 2. If, and it’s a big if, for the 17th-ranked driver in the standings, can harness that speed for the whole of the race, or get the jump using pit strategy, there’s a good return here. Again, this isn’t a bet to put a full unit on but rather a small part of a unit — but even if it’s a quarter of a unit played, it’s a 2-unit return if it hits.

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