IndyCar Sonsio Grand Prix at Road America race predictions, odds and best bets: Alex Palou can score repeat win

Alex Palou Indianapolis 500 qualifying 2022
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Matt Selz

IndyCar · 2 weeks ago

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NASCAR handicapper for Pickswise, looking to give you winners throughout the season!

The longest course on the Indy Car schedule looms this Sunday — Road America. In fact, this is perhaps the most unique road course on the schedule as it’s a natural road course, not a street circuit. There isn’t really any track you can compare it too as it’s far longer than any other track they go to.

It’s a 14-turn, 4-mile lap over the rolling hills of Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at some of the best winning bets and strategies for the Grand Prix at Road America on Sunday.

IndyCar betting strategies

This is a long lap. A very long lap. What does that mean for us? That cars will be pushed to their limits on Sunday from a technical perspective. We’ve seen a ton of gearbox, clutch and tire issues at the track previously, not to mention the curbing can be unkind to the floor. This is also a track where if a driver has the car set up the right way, a lead can be stretched out well with so many places to make speed on the track.

Pit strategy and tire degradation will be key to moving up through the field as there won’t be many shots for cautions or red flags in the race with as much run-off as the track has. Looking at what drivers have done there previously is certainly helpful, but we could take what they did at Barber earlier this year with a grain of salt as well.

All odds taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Best win bets for Road America

Alex Palou (+500)

Alex Palou is the defending winner of this race, although he did get a bit lucky with a late restart and a gearbox issue for Josef Newgarden. Still, you have to be in the right spot to capitalize. Palou finished P2 at Barber earlier this year, finished P2 at Laguna Seca last year (a track similar for elevation change), and has had top-5 speed at practice this week. It’s pretty easy to see why he’s the favorite for the weekend.

Pato O’Ward (+650)

Despite Arrow McLaren SP trying to say they’re not usually good at natural-terrain road courses, Pato O’Ward won at Barber. He’s also been fast at Road America this weekend as well. Practice one didn’t quite go their way, but he topped the speed charts in practice two. He’s posted 4 top-5 finishes this year, 3 of which have come on road or street circuits. Not bad for a guy fresh off a contract extension and who has the fastest car heading into qualifying.

Alexander Rossi (+1000)

Alexander Rossi has been great so far this weekend with the fastest time in practice one and the 4th-best in a shorter practice two. He also had great speed at Detroit last weekend despite not coming home with the win. They had a clutch issue before second practice but seem to have sorted it out. If they have in fact fixed that, the speed is there for Rossi to contend quite well on Sunday.

Marcus Ericsson (+1200)

Marcus Ericsson has not only been quick this weekend. He’s a former F1 driver. What does that matter here? Well this is considered to be the most European-type road course stateside in the way it flows around the lap. He was also fast at Barber earlier this year, even though that race didn’t go his way. At some point, his European racing history has to come to his benefit and he’s been showing so far that this weekend might be just that time.

At Pickswise we offer free motorsport picks for Formula 1 and NASCAR including analysis and betting advice from expert handicappers.

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