Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley picks, predictions and betting preview: Paul to chop down Woodley

Jake Paul (right) vs Tyron Woodley
Photo of Phil Agius

Phil Agius

Boxing

Show Bio

I've been writing about the NFL and a host of other sports for the UK's top daily betting paper the Racing Post for more than 20 years. An incurable Browns fan (1-31 survivor), I also specialise in all kinds of motorsport betting including F1, MotoGP, IndyCar and NASCAR.

YouTube star Logan Paul is bidding to take his boxing record to 4-0 in an eight-round fight against former UFC champion Tyron Woodley at the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio, on Sunday. The card is due to start at 8pm ET, with the main event around midnight ET. It’ll be available on Showtime PPV.

Paul — the younger brother of Logan Paul, who fought an exhibition bout against Floyd Mayweather in June — has yet to be taken the distance since making his pro debut in January 2020. He beat Ali Eson Gib by TKO, Nate Robinson by KO and, most recently, Ben Askren by TKO in Atlanta in April.

He has the experience edge in boxing at least over Woodley, who has a 19-7-1 MMA record but is stepping into a boxing ring for the first time at the age of 39. Paul is 15 years younger at 24 and fighting in his home town.

Paul a strong favorite to stay unbeaten

The early odds movement for the fight has all been in favor of Paul, whose odds have shortened from -160 to -200 with BetMGM Sportsbook. As a result, Woodley’s odds have increased from +120 to +160.

However, that’s not due to public money, with BetMGM reporting that 85.6% of tickets and 63.6% of the handle has been on underdog Woodley. The sportsbook also revealed that the most popular props have been Woodley by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ (+200), Woodley on points (+1200) and Woodley in Round 1 (+1400).

Paul vs Woodley fight prediction: Paul by KO/TKO (+140)

Paul talks a good fight and you had to enjoy his press-conference line that: “Tyron Woodley is ‘The Chosen One’ — we chose him to get his ass beat. I’m sending him into retirement and turning him into a meme.”

In this case, the circumstances look to be right for him to be able to back up his words with actions. Woodley won the UFC welterweight championship in 2016, but his style — relying on his wrestling skills and being a passive striker — didn’t make him an obvious candidate to switch to this code of fighting.

A durable fighter with excellent defensive skills, maybe Woodley is at least aiming to survive as long as he can and hope to land a knockout with a heavy punch, which he has demonstrated on occasions, but Paul is three inches taller at 6′ and has a two-inch reach advantage too.

Paul has praised Woodley’s conditioning, but there were signs that age was catching up to him in his most recent fights and he lost his last four MMA bouts.

Paul has a path mapped out for him, which next appears to be a fight against Britain’s Tommy Fury (Tyson Fury’s 22-year-old half-brother). Fury is fighting Anthony Taylor on the undercard and it’s worth betting that Woodley doesn’t disrupt Paul’s big-money schedule.

Take Paul to win by KO or TKO at FanDuel Sportsbook, which currently has that outcome boosted from -130 to +140.

Want more fight predictions? Pickswise is also the home of free UFC Predictions and Picks. Our expert UFC handicappers bring you the best bet from the top UFC and UFC Fight Night cards.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

BetRivers

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Win $200 if Any NBA Team Hits a Three Pointer!

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NBA game

Win $200 in free bets if any team hits a three pointer

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$150

Bet $5 & Win $150 If Your First Moneyline Bet Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on the pre-game Moneyline in any sport

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 if Any NHL Team Scores A Goal

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NHL game

Win $200 in free bets if any teams scores a goal

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets for Steelers vs. Colts!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Underdog Fantasy

$100

First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply