Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley picks, predictions and betting preview: Paul to chop down Woodley

Jake Paul (right) vs Tyron Woodley
Photo of Phil Agius

Phil Agius

Boxing· 2 weeks ago

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I've been writing about the NFL and a host of other sports for the UK's top daily betting paper the Racing Post for more than 20 years. An incurable Browns fan (1-31 survivor), I also specialise in all kinds of motorsport betting including F1, MotoGP, IndyCar and NASCAR.

YouTube star Logan Paul is bidding to take his boxing record to 4-0 in an eight-round fight against former UFC champion Tyron Woodley at the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio, on Sunday. The card is due to start at 8pm ET, with the main event around midnight ET. It’ll be available on Showtime PPV.

Paul — the younger brother of Logan Paul, who fought an exhibition bout against Floyd Mayweather in June — has yet to be taken the distance since making his pro debut in January 2020. He beat Ali Eson Gib by TKO, Nate Robinson by KO and, most recently, Ben Askren by TKO in Atlanta in April.

He has the experience edge in boxing at least over Woodley, who has a 19-7-1 MMA record but is stepping into a boxing ring for the first time at the age of 39. Paul is 15 years younger at 24 and fighting in his home town.

Paul a strong favorite to stay unbeaten

The early odds movement for the fight has all been in favor of Paul, whose odds have shortened from -160 to -200 with BetMGM Sportsbook. As a result, Woodley’s odds have increased from +120 to +160.

However, that’s not due to public money, with BetMGM reporting that 85.6% of tickets and 63.6% of the handle has been on underdog Woodley. The sportsbook also revealed that the most popular props have been Woodley by KO/TKO/Technical Decision or DQ (+200), Woodley on points (+1200) and Woodley in Round 1 (+1400).

Paul vs Woodley fight prediction: Paul by KO/TKO (+140)

Paul talks a good fight and you had to enjoy his press-conference line that: “Tyron Woodley is ‘The Chosen One’ — we chose him to get his ass beat. I’m sending him into retirement and turning him into a meme.”

In this case, the circumstances look to be right for him to be able to back up his words with actions. Woodley won the UFC welterweight championship in 2016, but his style — relying on his wrestling skills and being a passive striker — didn’t make him an obvious candidate to switch to this code of fighting.

A durable fighter with excellent defensive skills, maybe Woodley is at least aiming to survive as long as he can and hope to land a knockout with a heavy punch, which he has demonstrated on occasions, but Paul is three inches taller at 6′ and has a two-inch reach advantage too.

Paul has praised Woodley’s conditioning, but there were signs that age was catching up to him in his most recent fights and he lost his last four MMA bouts.

Paul has a path mapped out for him, which next appears to be a fight against Britain’s Tommy Fury (Tyson Fury’s 22-year-old half-brother). Fury is fighting Anthony Taylor on the undercard and it’s worth betting that Woodley doesn’t disrupt Paul’s big-money schedule.

Take Paul to win by KO or TKO at FanDuel Sportsbook, which currently has that outcome boosted from -130 to +140.

Want more fight predictions? Pickswise is also the home of free UFC Predictions and Picks. Our expert UFC handicappers bring you the best bet from the top UFC and UFC Fight Night cards.

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