It was not a banner week for betting early in the NFL. A massive COVID spike forced three games to be rescheduled, and made a mess out of the market, with highly volatile line moves across the board.
My only Early Birds bet from last week (Dolphins -2.5/Packers -1 teaser) ended up pushing, as the Packers almost blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter, but held on to win by 1 after a failed two-point conversion in the final minute.
In light of the volatility and uncertain COVID situation, I will be punting on betting any early NFL games this week. I just don’t see the value in it considering the uncertainty surrounding testing, and with four games still on the schedule for Week 15 as of Monday morning I believe being patient is the prudent approach this week.
That being said, there is one game I will be keeping a very close eye on. The Bills opened as +2 road underdogs against the Patriots in a game that could decide who wins the AFC East.
In last week’s Back to the Futures column, I recommended buying low on Buffalo to win the AFC East at +350. That price has significantly dropped to +130 at FanDuel, so I feel very good about my position. However, I would not be surprised to see the market continue to move against New England this week and if the Bills/Pats game was a closer to a pick ’em on Sunday.
NFL Week 16 opening lines
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Thursday 8:20pm ET
49ers (-3.5) at Titans | Total: 44.5
Saturday 4:30pm ET
Browns (+7.5) at Packers | Total: 45
Saturday 8:20pm ET
Colts (+2) at Cardinals | Total: 49.5
Sunday 1pm ET
Chargers (-10.5) at Texans | Total: 47.5
Giants (+10) at Eagles | Total: 42.5
Ravens (+2.5) at Bengals | Total: 43.5
Lions (+4.5) at Falcons | Total: 43.5
Rams (-3) at Vikings | Total: 49.5
Bills (+2) at Patriots | Total: 44.5
Sunday 4:05pm ET
Bears (+7) at Seahawks | Total: 43.5
Sunday 4:25pm ET
Broncos (+1.5) at Raiders | Total: 42.5
Steelers (+10) at Chiefs | Total: 46.5
Sunday 8:20pm ET
Washington (+10) at Cowboys | Total: 47.5
Monday 8:15pm ET
Dolphins (+3) at Saints | Total: 40.5
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