My NFL Early Birds went 1-1 last week, hitting on the Browns -1 and losing in heartbreaking fashion with Bills +3.5. I needed every ounce of CLV with Cleveland, but it showed the value in early betting, as the Browns were not able to cover the closing number. In fact, it was the second time this season that Cleveland presented a middling opportunity. The last one came against Broncos back in October, which I was fortunate enough to take advantage of.
I don't do this often (maybe 2x in my entire life) but I'm going to try for a middle tonight. Grabbed DEN +3.5 yesterday, and took CLE -1 now. There's not much to like about this game, and I'm content with sacrificing some juice for a small chance at gambling glory.
— Jared Smith (@jaredleesmith) October 21, 2021
The most effective way to set yourself up for rare middling opportunities such as those is to bet games early, and have a set strategy on when buying the other side appropriate. For me, it’s 3 points or more of movement in my favor, or if it moves through a key number. I was close to coming back on the Ravens this past Sunday, but the line never crossed one of those thresholds, moving just two points in my favor and failing to push through +3.
Texans at Jaguars: Is the wrong team favored?
Heading into Sunday, I thought there was a small chance the Jaguars would rally around the news that surfaced last week about Urban Meyer’s behavior, but instead Jacksonville showed no fight and got shut out by the Titans. That performance is very telling, and it’s possible the team has quit on their head coach.
Jaguars coach Urban Meyer on fixing what's wrong: "What's the answer? Starting leaking some information or nonsense? That's garbage. … If there is a source, then that source is unemployed. I mean, within seconds."
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) December 12, 2021
Based on what we heard from Meyer’s postgame press conference, he might spend more time looking for the leak this week than he will preparing his team for the Texans. The situation seems to have hit rock-bottom in Jacksonville, and it’s hard to fathom how they are laying points to anyone this week, even the Texans. Meanwhile, Davis Mills played relatively well on Sunday, throwing for 331 yards with no picks. This line should only trend in one direction, and I’m confident Houston will close at under a field goal.
Texans +3 (-105) available at Wynn Sunday night
Taking advantage of teasers: Favor the favorites
Double-digit favorites are 7-0 against the number and straight up over the last 2 weeks, and overall favorites went 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in Week 14 with MNF pending. After a season filled with underdogs, I expect some positive regression with favorites down the stretch as contenders round into postseason form.
The Bills, Cowboys, and Bucs are all laying between 10-12 points this week, which makes them ideal candidates for a 10-point teaser, as we can manipulate the lines through the key numbers of 7 and 3. The Cardinals have moved to -14 against the Lions, so their 10-point move isn’t as impactful. Josh Allen’s foot injury makes it tough to pull the trigger on Buffalo early in the week, so I will pass for now, but keep those three teams on your radar for a 10-pointer.
One 6-point teaser leg I am locking in early is the Dolphins, who have already moved from -7 to -8.5 facing the Jets off the bye. Oddsmakers say they have been quicker to move favorites through -9 this season, in order to protect against teasers, so I would expect the Miami line to close near double-digits.
The Packers make for an ideal second teaser leg. Green Bay opened -2 at Baltimore, but the Lamar Jackson injury has pushed that line to a full touchdown, and I would expect it to keep moving in the Packers’ direction throughout the week.
UPDATE: On Monday afternoon, the Packers line suddenly took a dip from -7 to -5, likely because of some injury news surrounding Aaron Rodgers’ toe, or Lamar’s ankle. Either way, if you haven’t bet this yet, please hold off until we get more info. The Browns from -6 to pk or the Steelers from +2 to +8 make for suitable replacements in the teaser.
NFL Week 15 opening lines
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Thursday 8:20 pm ET
Chiefs (-3.5) at Chargers | Total: 50
Saturday 4:30 pm ET
Raiders (+5.5) at Browns | Total: 42.5
Saturday 8:20 pm ET
Patriots (+1) at Colts | Total: 43.5
Sunday 1 pm ET
Washington (+4) at Eagles | Total: 43.5
Panthers (+10.5) at Bills | Total: 44.5
Cowboys (-10.5) at Giants | Total: 44.5
Cardinals (-14) at Lions | Total: 47.5
Sunday 4:05 pm ET
Falcons (+8) at 49ers | Total:
Bengals (+1) at Broncos | Total: 43.5
Sunday 4:25 pm ET
Packers (OTB) at Ravens | Total: OTB
Seahawks (+6.5) at Rams | Total: 47.5
Sunday 8:20 pm ET
Saints (-10.5) at Bucs | Total: 47
Monday 8:15 pm ET
Vikings (OTB) at Bears | Total:
This Week’s Early Bird Bets
Dolphins -2.5/Packers -1, 6-Point Teaser -120 (1.5u at DraftKings)
Texans +3 -105 (1u at Wynn)
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