JutPicks' best NBA Playoffs player props for Sunday: Jrue runs out of magic

Milwaukee Bucks guard Jrue Holiday (21) shoots against Boston Celtics center Al Horford (42) in the second half during game one of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at TD Garden.
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JutPicks

NBA · 1 month ago

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NBA and MLB props specialist for Pickswise.

Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write my plays up for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief write-ups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself in being as transparent as they come. My NBA record from last season and this season are listed in my bio alongside my MLB record. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite plays for the NBA Playoffs on Sunday.

Game 7. No better words in sports!

Marcus Smart (BOS) under 6.5 assists (-140)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I’m taking another scary under in the Celtics-Bucks matchup. Marcus Smart dished out 7 assists in game 6 and was an intrical part on the offensive end. He scored 21 points and shot 5 for 9 from the 3-point line. This boads well for our assist under. He’s getting a mismatch on the offensive end with Jrue Holiday shadowing Jaylen Brown so Smart is naturally taking more shot attempts.

Taking a closer look at game 6, Smart converted 7 of his 10 potential assists. That hit rate will be tough to match in a slow-paced game 7.

Smart’s usage rate has taken a hit since his injury. He’s below 20% in the last 3 games. A lot of that has to do with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown taking over games for Boston. Boston Celtics coach Ime Udoka is putting Tatum and Brown in pick-and-rolls with Al Horford and finding mismatches that they can exploit.

I expect Smart to be more aggressive in finding his own shot when he’s the primary ball-handler.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks

Jrue Holiday (MIL) under 32.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-104)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

This one hurts the heart. Nobody wants to take an under in a game 7 especially when the player is bound to play 40 minutes. But, I find this line to great value.

The Garden will be rocking today as the Boston Celtics look to lock up a matchup in the Conference Finals against the top seed in the East, the Miami Heat. I see Holiday struggling in one of the toughest atmospheres in the NBA.

In the 4 games that the Milwaukee Bucks have lost this postseason, Holiday has been held under this line in all of them. His shooting splits have taken a hit during this series. As a 50% shooter from the field in the regular season, it’s odd to see Holiday be so inefficient. He’s shooting 41% from the field in the first 6 games and is forcing some difficult shots with the absence of Khris Middleton. If Boston decides to have Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart shadow Holiday, it could be a long game for Jrue. I expect the offense to revolve around Giannis Antetokounmpo and for Holiday to rely on Antetokounmpo to not only create for him but for the 3-point marksman on the perimeter that they surround the duo with.

Holiday’s playmaking has taken a slight hit this postseason. During the regular season he averaged around 12 potential assist opportunities per game. During the Bucks’ playoff run that number has dropped to 10. Playoff basketball tends to slow down as teams value possessions. Without Middleton, Holidays’ shot attempts are naturally increasing.

I expect this matchup to be low-scoring and a ton of fouls to be called on each side. Only 3 of the last 12 game 7’s have reached the 200 point mark. Expect Boston to force Milwaukee to make others beat them.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks

Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL) over 16.5 points and rebounds (-115)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

I know what you’re thinking, Finney-Smith again after last games performance? Yes!

Dorian Finney-Smith is arguably the Dallas Mavericks 2nd most important player. His defense is remarkable and his 3-point shooting ability lifted the Mavericks in game 5. Since game 5, he’s dealt with foul trouble and low volume. I believe that changes tonight. Smith picked up at least 2 lackluster fouls in the 1st half that I expect him to learn from.

Mavericks center Dwight Powell continues to be unplayable this series and Smith is being leaned upon to make up his rebounding numbers. Smith is averaging just below 10 rebound chances per game. Mix that in with a couple of 3-point makes and Smith should crush this line in the expected 40 minutes he’ll see.

The Phoenix Suns have no answer for superstar Luka Doncic. They’re letting him play isolation ball against any defender that switches onto him and he’s bullying them in the post and embarrassing Deandre Ayton on the perimeter. I expect them to throw a couple double-teams at him and potentially hedge ball-screens which will open up shots for our guy Dorian Finney-Smith.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks

Pickswise is the home of free NBA Picks and NBA Predictions. Check out the latest NBA Prop Bets and NBA Parlays as well as NBA Best Bets from our NBA experts.

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