Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl predictions, picks and betting odds: Chiefs can keep up in high-scoring affair

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Phil Agius


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I've been writing about the NFL and a host of other sports for the UK's top daily betting paper the Racing Post for more than 20 years. An incurable Browns fan (1-31 survivor), I also specialise in all kinds of motorsport betting including F1, MotoGP, IndyCar and NASCAR.

The 2022-23 NFL season has all been leading up to Sunday’s big game, Super Bowl 57 — which will be fought out by the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium in Arizona on Sunday.

It’s the first clash of the #1 seeds from each conference since the Eagles last reached the big game 5 years ago, when they beat the New England Patriots. There is no shortage of storylines this year, either, with Chiefs head coach Andy Reid going up against the team that he led to the Super Bowl in 2005, while each side has a Kelce brother — although with Jason anchoring Philadelphia’s offensive line and Travis playing tight end for the Chiefs, they’re not likely to be on the field at the same time.

Let’s get into our experts’ Chiefs vs Eagles picks, predictions and best bets for Super Bowl 57.

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NFL Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl expert predictions

The Super Bowl teams each posted identical 14-3 regular-season records and have made the most of their seeding by winning two home games to reach the Super Bowl in Glendale. For the Chiefs, it it their third visit to the big game in the last 4 seasons and the combination of coach Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes have a 1-1 record in Super Bowls so far, with a 31-20 win over the 49ers 3 years ago, but a humbling 31-9 loss to the Buccaneers 12 months later. The Chiefs traded away star receiver Tyreek Hill before the season, but have still managed to get back to the Super Bowl despite stiff competition from preseason favorites the Bills and last season’s AFC champions the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Eagles made the playoffs last year under head coach Nick Sirianni, losing to the Buccaneers in the wild-card round, but returned as a real force in the NFC this season, winning their first 8 games after pairing new wide receiver AJ Brown with DeVonta Smith, while QB Jalen Hurts continues to defy his critics.

The sportsbooks just favor the Eagles, but a great matchup is in prospect. Let’s take a look at the odds for Sunday’s big game.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl spread, odds & betting lines

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Point spread: Chiefs +1.5, Eagles -1.5
Total points over/under: 50.5 points
Money line odds: Chiefs +104, Eagles -122

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl expert picks

We have 2 standout NFL picks for the Super Bowl 57 clash between the Chiefs and Eagles.

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl point spread pick: Chiefs +1.5 (-110)

It may be a closed-minded way to look at this game, but KC is 16-3 (playoffs included) and its 3 losses have been by a combined 10 points. The Chiefs haven’t lost by more than 4 points all season. If your goal is to take the safest route possible in this game, backing a team like KC and a QB like Patrick Mahomes isn’t a bad choice. It’s really difficult to fully evaluate this Eagles team — and especially their defense — based on them playing the single easiest schedule in the NFL. Even when the Eagles faced tough competition, they caught a break with Dak Prescott out in their first matchup against Dallas, Aaron Rodgers exiting in the middle of their game against Green Bay and San Francisco QB Brock Purdy getting injured in the NFC title game. The Eagles’ pass defense ranks #1 in the NFL in EPA per drop-back allowed but Patrick Mahomes is #1 in the NFL among QBs in EPA per drop-back. Philadelphia faced only 2 QBs ranked in the top 10 in EPA this season (Dak #7 and Jared Goff #8). Dak posted a +0.27 EPA per drop-back with a 59% success rate against Philly. That was Dak’s 5th-best EPA and success rate out of 12 regular-season games. Goff posted a +0.036 EPA and 39% success rate against the Eagles’ defense, which ranks as his 4th-worst EPA and 2nd-worst success rate of the season. They also faced #12-ranked Trevor Lawrence, but that game was played in a monsoon. There is no doubting that the Eagles defense’ is talented, with the 2nd-best pressure rate defense in the NFL and 2 top-notch CBs in Darius Slay and James Bradberry, but are they really the best pass defense in the NFL? Likely not.

Mahomes has played 7 games (SF, Denver twice, the Chargers twice and Cincinnati twice) against top-10 EPA pass defenses. KC went 6-1 in those games and produced an EPA per drop-back of +0.277, equivalent to the 2nd-best QB in the NFL for a full season. To me the Broncos’ defense is the closest comparison to the Eagles and Mahomes threw for 320+ yards in both games, although he did throw 6 TDs and 4 INTs. The Eagles’ pass-rush is a notch or two better than Denver and could cause issues with Mahomes on a bad ankle. Overall, however, I think Mahomes will be able to score on this defense. Philly’s weakness on defense is definitely the LB corps and I don’t see it being able to slow down Travis Kelce over the middle of the field.

I think the Eagles will be able to run the ball on a Chiefs’ defense that has not faced a single top-10 rush offense. However, in this NFL and in facing Mahomes they will have to match them score for score or they will be down and have to flip their run-heavy script. If Jalen Hurts was midseason Hurts and not coming off a bad shoulder, I would likely lean to the Eagles. But since he has been back, he has posted a poor 42% success rate and -3.0 completion percentage over expected. He has routinely missed throws down the field and has thrown for only 6.0 yards per attempt. That is a far cry from his pre-injury performance and he has not shown lately that he could be relied on to make big throws when needed in a close game. If the Chiefs get ahead early, it may be lights out.

Be sure to check out our full Super Bowl predictions

Chiefs vs Eagles Super Bowl over/under totals pick: Over 50.5 points (-115)

I like the over in the Super Bowl for a few reasons. For starters, Patrick Mahomes’ ankle should be pretty close to 100% by the time Sunday rolls around. And even with a bum ankle, he has managed to move the ball pretty well against the Jaguars and Bengals in the last couple of games. This Eagles defense is being overestimated solely because it hasn’t been tested at all recently. The Eagles’ playoff games were against Daniel Jones of the Giants and then a combination of Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson for San Francisco. Their last 2 regular-season games were against Davis Webb and Andy Dalton. The last time they faced a competent offense, they gave up 40 points to the Cowboys. The only other decent quarterback they faced over the past few months besides Dak Prescott was Aaron Rodgers, and they let the Packers score 33 on them. Almost every time the Eagles have played a decent passing attack this season, the game has turned into a shootout, such as when there were 73 total points scored in their matchup against the Lions.

The Eagles have scored at least 31 in each of their playoff games, and they’ve scored at least 31 in 6 of their past 9 overall. This is going to be the third Super Bowl for Mahomes and he has played in countless big games already in his young career, so he should be comfortable and locked in right from the start. Kansas City hasn’t put up fewer than 23 points in a game since all the way back on November 6. I’m confidently taking the over in this one.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl expert predictions

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