Less than a month after their intense battle at Madison Square Garden, which went the Thunder’s way, it will be the Knicks and Thunder finishing off their regular-season series on Sunday at Paycom Center in OKC. Can the Knicks even things out in this potential NBA Finals preview, or will SGA and company once again reign supreme?
Catch the tipoff at 7:30 pm ET on NBC as part 1 of their Sunday double-header. I have prepared a tasty Same Game Parlay bet at +418 odds. Our NBA Picks for Sunday’s 9-game slate are also available, so don’t forget to go over them before placing your bets.
New York Knicks +8.5 (-112)
Jalen Brunson 3+ made threes (+172)
Chet Holmgren 1+ made threes (-295)
Same Game Parlay odds: +418
New York Knicks +8.5 (-112)
On the surface, Oklahoma City looks like the superior team, but this is a far more difficult matchup for them than the market suggests. The Thunder thrive on chaos: forcing turnovers, getting out in transition, and generating easy offense off defensive pressure. That’s where New York quietly neutralizes them. The Knicks are one of the better ball-control teams in the league. They don’t beat themselves, ranking near the top in limiting turnovers relative to OKC’s pressure-heavy defense.
That matters because Oklahoma City’s biggest edge is forcing mistakes and that gets blunted here. If they’re forced into half-court offense consistently, the dynamic shifts. New York also has a clear advantage on the glass. They rank significantly higher in offensive rebounding and overall rebounding volume, creating second-chance opportunities while limiting OKC to one shot. That’s a critical equalizer against a team with elite efficiency. We’ve already seen how thin the margin is when OKC edged New York 103-100 in a grind-it-out game that required overtime. In this kind of environment, the underdog has real upset pop. I’ll be backing the Knicks plus the points here.
Jalen Brunson 3+ made threes (+172)
Most of the heavy lifting on offense for the Knicks will go through Jalen Brunson here. It has to. Although Karl-Anthony Towns has displayed some solid games on that end of the floor, history tells us we cannot trust him in big games like this one is. Brunson, on the other hand, is a proven performer in big time moments, so I’m counting on him to deliver. He’s shot the three-ball this season at a very solid 37%, I’m sure he will want to make amends here after going 0-for-6 from deep in the loss to Charlotte. As a team Oklahoma City ranks only 23rd in the NBA in opponent three-point percentage, allowing 36.5% of shots to go in. That number has gone up to 37.3% over their last 3 games, maybe an indicator of what’s to come in Sunday’s game. As a team the defending champs rank 3rd for threes allowed, while against opposing PGs they allow the 8th most threes.
Chet Holmgren 1+ made threes (-295)
The last time these two teams played Chet Holmgren went off for 28 points which was his 3rd highest scoring game of the season. He connected on 6 threes from 11 attempts, hovering around the perimeter for most of the night. I can see the Thunder using a similar strategy on Sunday, against a Knicks team that’s struggled to contain opponents’ shooting from the perimeter. Their last 3 games have seen them allow 40.2% of shots from downtown to go in, for the season they rank only 19th in this area of play. Holmgren has had a decent year shooting the ball from the perimeter. Backing this bet has actually yielded a profit in 68% of his games (43/63), at home that number jumps up to 76% (23/30 games) and right now he’s on a streak of 5 consecutive home games clearing this line. With the Knicks ranking 4th for threes allowed to PFs this season, I’m more than happy to include him in my Same Game Parlay bet.
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