Ricky Dimon
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Thanksgiving week rolls on with 1 NFL game all by itself on Black Friday: an AFC West battle between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs. Las Vegas has stumbled to a 2-9 record, while Kansas City is 10-1 and looking to stay atop the AFC in its effort to secure the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. This could turn into a real mismatch, but football is football and we’ve come up with our Raiders vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay picks for this matchup, which gets underway at 3:00 pm ET on Amazon Prime Video. Make sure you also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY Week 13 matchup and throughout the season.
Raiders +10.5 alternate spread (+114)
Under 40.5 alternate game total (+114)
Aidan O’Connell Over 215.5 passing yards (-113)
Raiders vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay odds: +612
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Las Vegas quarterback Aidan O’Connell racking up plenty of passing yards would obviously work well with a Raiders cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under on a 40.5 total. However, there is no reason why points can’t come at a premium and O’Connell goes over this modest line. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Las Vegas Raiders +10.5 alternate spread over Kansas City Chiefs (+114)
There is pretty much no way I am giving double-digits with the Chiefs against any opponent these days. They simply aren’t blowing teams out this year. They couldn’t even beat the Panthers bad last weekend! In fact, Kansas City needed a last-second field goal to get past a lowly Carolina squad by 3. It was yet another escape in a season that has featured a whole host of such nail-biters – many against unspectacular competition. These 2 division rivals already faced each other in Week 8 and KC won by just a touchdown. The Chiefs’ defense is solid but not dominant, while Patrick Mahomes and the offense are not up to their usual standards. In a rivalry showdown, for me, it feels like another all-to-close Kansas City victory is in the cards.
Read our full Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction and find out our 3-star best bet
Under 40.5 alternate game total (+114)
I feel even better about the under in this matchup. If the Raiders are going to keep the game (somewhat) close, it will probably have to be a relatively low-scoring affair. After all, the underdogs won’t be able to keep up in a shootout. They simply don’t have the offensive firepower. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers is an awesome weapon for O’Connell, but running back Zamir White has already been ruled out while Alexander Mattison is questionable. The good news for Las Vegas is that Kansas City’s offense has underwhelmed in 2024. Head coach Andy Reid’s team has not scored more than 30 points in a game this entire season and it has scored more than 24 in regulation just once in the last 4 contests.
After +225, +155 and +155 winners on Thanksgiving, don’t miss our Raiders vs Chiefs touchdown scorer best bets
Aidan O’Connell Over 215.5 passing yards (-113)
Kansas City’s defense is very good overall, but it has struggled a bit against the pass. It is right in the middle of the pack in passing defense and has surrendered almost 3 times as many touchdowns through the air (15) as interceptions (6). The Chiefs are also tied for the 5th-fewest sacks in the league (21), which is part of the reason why the secondary is having issues. It is being forced to cover pass-catchers for too long.
O’Connell should be able to capitalize. He exceeded this number 6 times in 11 games last season and threw for 227 yards against a stout Pittsburgh Steelers defense last month, so the Purdue product knows what he is doing as a starter in this league. The Raiders also figure to be playing from behind most – if not all – of the way on Friday, which means O’Connell will have to air it out. He should be in line for a substantial yardage total.
