Sam Avellone
Show Bio
Now that the tournament field has been revealed, it is time to break down each matchup to find where the value lies. Be sure to check out our March Madness hub throughout the week, as the college basketball experts at Pickswise will have you covered with picks, tips and analysis of each and every matchup during the NCAA Tournament.
Identifying an underdog to go on a run in March Madness is one of the best parts of filling out a bracket. Every year, there seems to be one or two “Cinderella” teams that make a run to at least the Sweet 16, with teams like South Carolina, Loyola-Chicago, and UCLA defying the odds and going as far as the Final Four in three of the last four tournaments. So who are the longshots that are capable of making a run to the Sweet 16 or later this year? Here are a few teams to consider, along with their odds to make the Sweet 16 courtesy of FanDuel.
2022 March Madness Cinderellas
Boise State Broncos (+1040)
Seed: 8
KenPom rank: 26
ATS record as underdog: 7-2
KenPom ranks the Mountain West as the 7th-strongest conference in college basketball and ranks the American Athletic Conference as the 8th-strongest. Boise State won the MWC Tournament and beat Colorado State (who is a 6-seed) twice, so I cannot help but think the Broncos will feel disrespected coming into the tournament. The Broncos are an experienced group led by senior guards Marcus Shaver, Abu Kigab, and Emmanuel Akot, as they rank 51st in KenPom’s Experience and 70th in Minutes Continuity. They rank 17th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and limit opposition to an offensive rebounding percentage of 21.9% – which ranks 5th nationally.
In addition to their stingy defense, the Broncos are 15th in average height, so they have the size to match up with Memphis and Gonzaga. They won 6 of their 9 games as an underdog and were 13-5 ATS away from home this season, so the Broncos are capable of rising to the occasion when the odds are against them. They have a realistic shot at beating Memphis, and while upsetting Gonzaga may be unlikely, it is not completely out of the realm of possibilities.
Marquette Golden Eagles (+760)
Seed: 9
KenPom rank: 47
ATS record as underdog: 11-5
Shaka Smart is back in the tournament as an underdog where he thrives. As a head coach, Smart is 8-2 ATS an underdog in the NCAA Tournament and was made famous by VCU’s run to the Final Four in 2011. This year, the Golden Eagles find themselves in a spot that has been profitable for underdogs in recent tournaments, as they are catching points in the 8-vs-9 matchup against an inconsistent North Carolina team. If they were to advance past the Tar Heels, the Golden Eagles would likely be matched up with Baylor, who happens to be the defending champion but also the lowest rated 1-seed in the tournament this year.
Marquette had the 25th-strongest schedule this season with wins over Illinois (without Kofi Cockburn), West Virginia, Kansas State, Providence, Villanova (twice), and Seton Hall, so I do not expect them to back down from the challenges of facing the Tar Heels and, potentially, the Bears.
Davidson Wildcats (+680)
Seed: 10
KenPom rank: 41
ATS record as underdog: 5-2
Being matched up against Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament has to be an amazing feeling for former-Spartan Foster Loyer. The now-Wildcat is a fourth-year junior that left Michigan State for more playing time and has become the leading scorer and best 3-point shooter for Davidson.
While they do have a difficult draw and would likely have to beat two Hall of Fame coaches to get to the Sweet 16, the Wildcats rank 11th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency and have a balanced scoring attack with four players who shoot over 37% from the perimeter. Even big man Luka Brajkovic can step outside and hit a three, which could help the Wildcats spread the floor against some of the nation’s best rim-protectors in Michigan State’s Marcus Bingham and Duke’s Mark Williams. Davidson beat Alabama this season 79-78 on a neutral court, so the Wildcats have what it takes to score with some of the country’s top teams.
Chattanooga Mocs (+1300)
Seed: 13
KenPom rank: 72
ATS record as underdog: 4-2
This will likely be a popular pick because of Illinois’ upset loss to Loyola-Chicago last year. However, this Chattanooga team is extremely talented, as David Jean-Baptiste and Malachi Smith is one of the best guard tandems in the country – despite playing in the Southern Conference. The Mocs may not have a big man who can shut down Cockburn (not that very many teams do), but they do have Kansas-transfer Silvio De Sousa, who has a knack for rebounding and scoring around the rim. Chattanooga admittedly has a difficult road to the Sweet 16, but Illinois has struggled as a favorite (11-16 ATS), and the Mocs have experience at the guard position that will give them a chance.
Honorable mentions: Vermont Catamounts, Akron Zips
Pickswise is the home of free expert March Madness Predictions, and we offer so much more. Be sure to also check out our best March Madness Prop Bets and Parlays.
