The Sweet 16 provided plenty of excitement and entertainment across the course of a couple of jam-packed days of March Madness action, including a couple of instant classics on Thursday. Now, Saturday marks the start of the Elite 8, and the 2-game slate features a pair of fascinating matchups across the South and West Regions. There are massive games to look forward to and find value in, so let’s take a look at my best bets for March 28. I bounced back with a 2-0 day in my best bets column last Sunday, so let’s keep that momentum going with my college basketball predictions for Saturday’s slate. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
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March Madness Elite 8 best bet: Arizona Wildcats -5.5 over Purdue Boilermakers (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Arizona -6.
To tip off my best bets on Saturday, I’ll target the matchup in the West Region between Purdue and Arizona. While Matt Painter has managed to turn his postseason reputation around in recent years, this is a really difficult matchup for the Boilermakers and I’m much more inclined to back the favorite in this one. I’ve been bullish on Arizona since the start of the campaign, and the Wildcats look like the best team in the sport at the moment. Tommy Lloyd’s team is excellent in all areas and the Wildcats have been able to own the glass and dominate the shot volume battle in the majority of their games this season. This is the rare game where Purdue won’t have the size advantage in the paint, which doesn’t bode well for an offense that has thrived inside of 10 feet in this tournament.
In addition to Arizona’s prowess on the boards, this is an elite defense that is ranked 1st in the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed and 2nd in adjusted efficiency (BartTorvik). The Wildcats have the luxury of being able to stick Jaden Bradley on Braden Smith and make his life very difficult for 40 minutes. While Smith hasn’t been great in this tournament, it’s hard to imagine the Boilermakers keeping this one within a few possessions without a great game from their star guard. Elsewhere, Arizona should be able to slice and dice its way through a Purdue team that is 245th in 2-point defense this season, and just allowed Texas to get whatever it wanted for the majority of that Sweet 16 game. I’ll keep backing the Big 12 champions in March.
Read our expert’s full Purdue vs Arizona prediction
March Madness Sweet 16 prediction: Illinois vs Iowa 1st Half Under 65.5 (-120)
Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Under 64.5 (-115).
For my 2nd best bet, let’s look at this All-Big Ten matchup between Iowa and Illinois. Given the familiarity between these teams, I’m going to eschew taking a side and instead focus on the 1st half under in this contest. Not only do both of these teams play at an extremely slow tempo (ranked 279th and 362nd respectively), but each offense does a great job of not turning the ball over and creating easy transition looks for their opponent. Furthermore, Illinois has the best foul rate of any team in the nation, and Iowa’s offense is not one that gets to the free-throw line all that often. Add in the fact that this will be the second game in the span of 48 hours for both teams, and I could see this one getting off to a slow start.
Check out our full Iowa vs Illinois prediction
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